5 Reasons You Won't Make Money Betting Baseball in 2014

[Meditations]

How Dare You

Man at least some of the sbr trolls are funny. Never have I seen someone with a "-" in front of their record talk so much except to beg for help. You're like a fish out of water, you don't know your place in this world. I suggest you flap back into your little bowl and let the winners do what winners do

#TakeNotes #WarxFadeMachine

[WarxMagic]

My place is at the top.

[Down_Goes Bookie]

You're like a fish out of water, you don't know your place in this world.

Give the guy a break! How could he know his place in this world? He just got here.

I just came to earth 2 days ago.

[WarxMagic]

It's barely 10:30 am - at least I know who the unemployed dudes in my thread are now lol.

[WarxMagic]

Y'all better fall back with that talking crazy and all that. I took off then took a loss but I'ma snap back like my ball cap.

All that's on my mind is dollar signs. Until I die I'ma hustle. And hittas hate on me all the time, so if you don't like me then...

[whtsox13]

It's barely 10:30 am - at least I know who the unemployed dudes in my thread are now lol.

We're all in the same time zone? Its Thursday here, so yes I have all the winners for Wednesday

#earthisround

[AndrewMcCutchen]

This guy belongs in the tool academy.

[WarxMagic]

For what does it profit a man to gain the whole world and forfeit his soul? Real life hittas turn to haters just to get a tweet in and steal my shine what is the point?

[robbeduagain]

No corrections. It was stated flawlessly, as usual.

Yep. As flawlessly as your selections

[WarxMagic]

Are you going to just be a critic and watch life pass you by? Stop waiting for a hero to save you. Let's see some picks.

[WarxMagic]

Like Jesus said, let he with a perfect record cast the first stone.

#Man of God
#God Among Ants

[robbeduagain]

Are you going to just be a critic and watch life pass you by? Stop waiting for a hero to save you. Let's see some picks.

I'll play along. St Louis rl +165. And I won't even delete if I think it's going to lose

[WarxMagic]

Excellent, I'll take the opposite for double. Cards is +155 on the RL not +135 so feel free to change it.

Brewers -175 +1.5 2x on the record.

[robbeduagain]

Excellent, I'll take the opposite for double. Cards is +155 on the RL not +135 so feel free to change it.

Brewers -175 +1.5 2x on the record.

You're right. Actually when I bet it this morning it was +165. Do you mind?

[WarxMagic]

Go for it. No problem.

[robbeduagain]

Now kid, I can take some ribbing, but nothing vulgar like you did earlier. I don't think down to that level. You probably have a lot to offer this forum if you weren't so cocky about things

[whtsox13]

Excellent, I'll take the opposite for double. Cards is +155 on the RL not +135 so feel free to change it.

Brewers -175 +1.5 2x on the record.

Win or lose today the high juice and +run wagers will bury you. #longview

[robbeduagain]

Excellent, I'll take the opposite for double. Cards is +155 on the RL not +135 so feel free to change it.

Brewers -175 +1.5 2x on the record.

And I don't want to pressure you in to anything. Make any play you want. You don't have to go opposite me. I really want to hear how you make your selections. I'm always willing to learn something about handicapping. I'm sure you have some good ideas. I just don't like to be talked down to. I'm too old for that.

[WarxMagic]

Win or lose today the high juice and +run wagers will bury you. #longview

Short odds is not equivalent to high juice. You can't determine if a line has high juice without knowing where the true line should be and who the juice is being charged to.

[robbeduagain]

You were right and I was wrong. Miller will probably not get out of this inning.

[whtsox13]

You were right and I was wrong. Miller will probably not get out of this inning.

You are that guy. 9 innings bro.

[robbeduagain]

Sorry about that. I'm done with commentary.

[PAULYPOKER]

You people need to ignore this waste of blood n tissue immediately.......

This fukk is nuttin but a POS starving for attention......

Yes,

he feels soooo worthless that even negative attention is great in his eyes .....

[shevabets]

My place is at the top.

Lube up

[WarxMagic]

#Warning
#TL;DR


In my experience, virtually all handicappers follow a similar progression. Each person advances only after 1) their current stage has failed them (-$), 2) they have realized the pitfalls of their current strategy, and 3) s/he makes a conscious effort to adapt.

Stage 1: Square betting

Strategy: Bet popular teams, heavy favorites, teams on win streaks, no consistent method for calculating value

Epiphany: You break your bankroll repeatedly

Lessons: Basics of calculating expected value, converting odds and probabilities, understanding variance, understanding how value is created in sports betting, money management, and vigorish

Stage 2: "Contrarian" betting

Strategy: Bet underdogs religiously, especially home underdogs, and some pretty terrible teams purely from a conceptual standpoint because they "must have value"

Epiphany: You realize that neither blindly picking heavy favorites nor heavy underdogs is profitable - you inevitably turn towards score projection and attempt to recreate the Vegas line yourself mathematically.

(Here, there is a key branch point: If your IQ > 120, you progress to the art of statistical analysis; if your IQ < 120 or you are too lazy, you either quit or become a degenerate gambler relying on a Stage 1 or Stage 2 strategy aka Pauly)

Lessons: Linear regression, Multivariate regression, Binomial distribution, Excel, Kelly criteria

Stage 3: Mathematical Modeling

Strategy: You develop a series of progressively more sophisticated and accurate ways for projecting the outcomes of games, which include the use of xFIP, park factors, etc.

(Now comes another critical developmental branch point)

Having spent a tremendous amount of energy refining multiple projection models clawing for the thinnest value you either:

#1 Convince yourself that you have an edge over the "square-betting public" because you are using an "objective, more scientific" method to make your picks and refuse to admit that your models are fallible. You ride your system to the grave before you quit.

or

#2 You find that your projections ultimately validate the accuracy of the Vegas lines +/- a small % error. You become unsure of whether it is even possible to profit long-term against the house edge + variance. However, you are driven by your love of the sport and personal curiosity toward the next level to sharpen your numbers and see if you can indeed exploit this small % error for some value, even though you know it likely won't be time-effective unless you have a very large bankroll.

Epiphany: ZIPS, flaws of linear regression, Non-normal distributions

Stage 4: Fancier Models, Game Simulation, and Beyond

Strategy: If you are intensely curious about the most detailed elements of the game, aspire to write for the Hardball Times, or Baseball Prospectus, or want to be employed by a Major League team, you will eventually reach this stage. At this point, baseball analysis is almost a full-time hobby.

This is the stage where for no good reason you find that you are able to answer questions such as, why is Joey Votto batting 2nd? How much does a 10 degree increase in temperature affect the HR/FB ratio? What is the game-theory optimal # of R-handed & L-handed hitters in your lineup, and how do you distribute them to avoid being exploited by specialist relievers? Why not start a R-handed reliever for 1 inning to face 3 Righties and then let the projected L-handed starter enter the game to face the lefty 4 hitter? When is slugging % more important than OBP and vice-versa?

Pitch F/X, Hitter spray charts and defensive shifts are the next level up from here. I don't work for MLB, or Hardball Times, or publish on Fangraphs, so I don't know how lucrative it is to even reach this point unless you want to be Joe Maddon's personal assistant - especially with so many internet heroes that publish great research for free.

Do you need to reach stage 4 to be reliably successful at betting baseball long-term? Yes, period. 20 years ago, from what I've read, you could have been a winner relying on a Stage 2 strategy. 10 years ago, if you were at Stage 3, you were likely in the upper percentile of sports bettors. Unfortunately, those days are gone.

Bottom line: don't be afraid to be a BEAST. If you aren't reading stuff that hurts your head to think about, then you aren't keeping up with me. And if you ain't trying to keep up with me, then why you up in my thread.

[WarxMagic]

I don't need attention, people just recognize a real BEAST when they see one.

[WarxMagic]

If I had $100 for every time Pauly posted

[whtsox13]

Keep up with what? Post units for each wager Mr. Stage 1 so we know the benchmark. Amused at your changing persona as the thread continues... Alien godsend, statistical wizard, hoodlum, wordsmith, reasonable guy,,, what's next?

[WarxMagic]

-105 Units

#Still a Beast
#Never Took Roids
#Still Tested Positive for PEDs

[shevabets]

#Bend over

[whtsox13]

#warxlaxintegrity

[robbeduagain]

#Warning
#TL;DR


In my experience, virtually all handicappers follow a similar progression. Each person advances only after 1) their current stage has failed them (-$), 2) they have realized the pitfalls of their current strategy, and 3) s/he makes a conscious effort to adapt.

Stage 1: Square betting

Strategy: Bet popular teams, heavy favorites, teams on win streaks, no consistent method for calculating value

Epiphany: You break your bankroll repeatedly

Lessons: Basics of calculating expected value, converting odds and probabilities, understanding variance, understanding how value is created in sports betting, money management, and vigorish

Stage 2: "Contrarian" betting

Strategy: Bet underdogs religiously, especially home underdogs, and some pretty terrible teams purely from a conceptual standpoint because they "must have value"

Epiphany: You realize that neither blindly picking heavy favorites nor heavy underdogs is profitable - you inevitably turn towards score projection and attempt to recreate the Vegas line yourself mathematically.

(Here, there is a key branch point: If your IQ > 120, you progress to the art of statistical analysis; if your IQ < 120 or you are too lazy, you either quit or become a degenerate gambler relying on a Stage 1 or Stage 2 strategy aka Pauly)

Lessons: Linear regression, Multivariate regression, Binomial distribution, Excel, Kelly criteria

Stage 3: Mathematical Modeling

Strategy: You develop a series of progressively more sophisticated and accurate ways for projecting the outcomes of games, which include the use of xFIP, park factors, etc.

(Now comes another critical developmental branch point)

Having spent a tremendous amount of energy refining multiple projection models clawing for the thinnest value you either:

#1 Convince yourself that you have an edge over the "square-betting public" because you are using an "objective, more scientific" method to make your picks and refuse to admit that your models are fallible. You ride your system to the grave before you quit.

or

#2 You find that your projections ultimately validate the accuracy of the Vegas lines +/- a small % error. You become unsure of whether it is even possible to profit long-term against the house edge + variance. However, you are driven by your love of the sport and personal curiosity toward the next level to sharpen your numbers and see if you can indeed exploit this small % error for some value, even though you know it likely won't be time-effective unless you have a very large bankroll.

Epiphany: ZIPS, flaws of linear regression, Non-normal distributions

Stage 4: Fancier Models, Game Simulation, and Beyond

Strategy: If you are intensely curious about the most detailed elements of the game, aspire to write for the Hardball Times, or Baseball Prospectus, or want to be employed by a Major League team, you will eventually reach this stage. At this point, baseball analysis is almost a full-time hobby.

This is the stage where for no good reason you find that you are able to answer questions such as, why is Joey Votto batting 2nd? How much does a 10 degree increase in temperature affect the HR/FB ratio? What is the game-theory optimal # of R-handed & L-handed hitters in your lineup, and how do you distribute them to avoid being exploited by specialist relievers? Why not start a R-handed reliever for 1 inning to face 3 Righties and then let the projected L-handed starter enter the game to face the lefty 4 hitter? When is slugging % more important than OBP and vice-versa?

Pitch F/X, Hitter spray charts and defensive shifts are the next level up from here. I don't work for MLB, or Hardball Times, or publish on Fangraphs, so I don't know how lucrative it is to even reach this point unless you want to be Joe Maddon's personal assistant - especially with so many internet heroes that publish great research for free.

Do you need to reach stage 4 to be reliably successful at betting baseball long-term? Yes, period. 20 years ago, from what I've read, you could have been a winner relying on a Stage 2 strategy. 10 years ago, if you were at Stage 3, you were likely in the upper percentile of sports bettors. Unfortunately, those days are gone.

Bottom line: don't be afraid to be a BEAST. If you aren't reading stuff that hurts your head to think about, then you aren't keeping up with me. And if you ain't trying to keep up with me, then why you up in my thread.

Ok. I get all the stages and investment strategies. I read Trading Bases. Where are you stage wise? How did you come to take the opposite side of me today? What information did you use to come to that choice? I'm not being smart, I'm really curious. No more bull shit.

[PAULYPOKER]

Ok. I get all the stages and investment strategies. I read Trading Bases. Where are you stage wise? How did you come to take the opposite side of me today? What information did you use to come to that choice? I'm not being smart, I'm really curious. No more bull shit.

This fool has you right where he wants you

You're tooo easy brah.......

[robbeduagain]

This fool has you right where he wants you

You're tooo easy brah.......

Just trying to be civil

[WarxMagic]

I calculated that the Brewers win % + lose by 1 % was greater than 64%.