Has Anyone Been Able To Cap 1st Inning Yes/No Bets?

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  • dlunc3
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-31-09
    • 9129

    #1
    Has Anyone Been Able To Cap 1st Inning Yes/No Bets?
    I haven't been betting these, but have been following and have been experimenting with them on paper. Has anyone been able to cap them successfully over a significant period of time? It seems like it can be done if you put the work in.
  • HardCore
    SBR MVP
    • 06-05-12
    • 3615

    #2
    Nope and ive been trying for years. It just seems like a walk and then a homer or stolen base leads to a double and boom someone scores, or 2 gas cans take the field and look like cy youngs. Seems like something strange always happens in the 1st inning.
    Comment
    • Emancipator
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 04-12-13
      • 788

      #3
      If I had more time and was able to cap lineups were released, I would play them more. If your looking for answers. Try looking at the splits for starters over the past 3 years in their first 30 pitches. See how the first three to five batters fare against that pitcher (if they have a history) and check the same stuff you would for totals, weather, ballpark ...
      Comment
      • dlunc3
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 10-31-09
        • 9129

        #4
        Had some time this morning to do some capping on some games... so going to give it a try and see where we end up.. I will try to post strong games when I see them.

        Tonights strongest game:

        Mariners vs Rangers No Run 1st Inning -150

        -Rangers top 5 hitters have a career .238 average vs Felix with a total of 18 rbi and 2 hrs in 155 plate appearances. Beltre being out of the lineup is a huge plus, as he has hit Felix well throughout his career.

        -Of the Mariners top 5 hitters, one two have faced Darvish. Cano has hit .333 vs him in 9 at bats (3 hits). 0 rbi and 0 hrs. Other then him, only Miller has seen Darvish, and is 0-4 vs him. None of the other 3 have seen Darvish, which is a positive.

        -Rangers are ranked 28th in baseball with .21 runs scored per first inning. They have not scored a first inning run in 3 straight games.

        -Mariners are ranked 26th in baseball with .23 runs scored per first inning. They have not scored a first inning run in 3 straight games.

        A lot of juice, but I feel this play is worth laying the -150.

        Best of luck.
        Comment
        • dlunc3
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-31-09
          • 9129

          #5
          Not going huge on these, so am only betting "to win" .50 units to start


          04/16/2014
          20:05
          MLB Run In 1st - NO to WinEven(-150)
          Run In 1st - YES (SEATTLE) vs Run In 1st - NO (TEXAS)
          $ 225.00 wagered to win $ 150.00
          at 04/16/2014 12:56
          Pitching Option :Action
          Via Website
          COMMITTED $ 225.00
          Comment
          • suicidekings
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-23-09
            • 9962

            #6
            These props are a lot tougher early in the season than later on. And while they used to be quite exploitable, the books caught up on pricing a few years ago, forcing you to pay premium prices. Laying -150 on this kind of thing is WAY too much juice.
            Comment
            • dlunc3
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 10-31-09
              • 9129

              #7
              Originally posted by dlunc3
              Not going huge on these, so am only betting "to win" .50 units to start

              04/16/2014
              20:05
              MLB Run In 1st - NO to WinEven(-150)
              Run In 1st - YES (SEATTLE) vs Run In 1st - NO (TEXAS)
              $ 225.00 wagered to win $ 150.00
              at 04/16/2014 12:56
              Pitching Option :Action
              Via Website
              COMMITTED $ 225.00
              Good start. Will see what shows up tomorrow.
              Comment
              • dlunc3
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 10-31-09
                • 9129

                #8
                Good win yesterday. Lets get another tonight..

                Tonights strongest game:

                Royals vs Astros No Run 1st Inning -135

                -Royals top 5 hitters have a career .212 average vs Feldman with a total of 6 rbi and 1 hr in 66 plate appearances.

                -Royals top 5 hitters have a career .300 average vs Shields, but with only 10 total appearances. Other then Castro, none have a career hit vs Shields. He has 1 rbi in 7 plate appearances. Fowler, Springer and Guzman have never seen Shields, and Altuve has only seen him 3 times. Should be a lot of guessing going to start this game while trying to get to know Shields.

                -Royals have 1 first inning run scored total in their last 4 games

                -Astros have 1 first inning run scored total in their last 9 games.

                -In 6 combined starts this season, Feldman + Shields have given up a total of 1 first inning run.


                Still a little juicy, but I feel this play is worth laying the -135.

                Best of luck.



                04/17/2014
                20:10
                MLB Run In 1st - NO to WinEven(-135)
                Run In 1st - YES (KANSAS CITY) vs Run In 1st - NO (HOUSTON)
                $ 270.00 wagered to win $ 200.00
                at 04/17/2014 11:59
                Pitching Option :Action
                Via Website
                COMMITTED $ 270.00
                Comment
                • MickChunky
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-31-06
                  • 1452

                  #9
                  Nice analysis, I got -130 @ bookmaker
                  Comment
                  • b1slickguy
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-24-11
                    • 11959

                    #10
                    Check out Armadillo sports for good MLB info and trends including 1st inning scores.
                    No play for me on the KC/HOU NR1st. Shields gave up the most 1st inning HR's in the majors last season with 6.
                    Good luck.
                    Comment
                    • dlunc3
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 10-31-09
                      • 9129

                      #11
                      Originally posted by b1slickguy
                      Check out Armadillo sports for good MLB info and trends including 1st inning scores.
                      No play for me on the KC/HOU NR1st. Shields gave up the most 1st inning HR's in the majors last season with 6.
                      Good luck.
                      Thanks, I will check it out.

                      What games do you like tonight? Every game seemed to have some at least a few warning signs.. This one seemed to have the least from what I could see.
                      Comment
                      • MagicDiceFlow
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-15-12
                        • 4585

                        #12
                        When you're doing these No Run 1st Inning bets, also take in consideration the stadiums/ballparks. I would stay away from small ballparks like Wrigley Field, Minute Maid, Camden Yards , etc .....there's always a cheap home run a few times a week in the first innings that will burn you due to the dimensions. (most of the time it will come from a leadoff guy or non home run hitter).

                        A lot of guys that do these bets never mention about it but its vital in these bets.
                        Comment
                        • b1slickguy
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-24-11
                          • 11959

                          #13
                          Originally posted by dlunc3
                          Thanks, I will check it out.

                          What games do you like tonight? Every game seemed to have some at least a few warning signs.. This one seemed to have the least from what I could see.
                          Was looking at NR1st MIL/PIT. Do you have anything to back or negate the play?
                          Juiced at -160, but game total only at 6.5.
                          Good luck.
                          Comment
                          • riffraff24
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 04-20-11
                            • 7234

                            #14
                            I hate them. All it takes is 1 hanging slider to go over the fence. And you will notice a lot of under games give up an early run.
                            Comment
                            • dlunc3
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 10-31-09
                              • 9129

                              #15
                              Originally posted by b1slickguy
                              Was looking at NR1st MIL/PIT. Do you have anything to back or negate the play?
                              Juiced at -160, but game total only at 6.5.
                              Good luck.
                              Mainly Volquez scares me.. Braun and Gomez have beat up on him in their careers (Braun .355, Gomez .353) and have seen him a lot.. Stl. hit him hard in the first inning two weeks ago (even though they got out of it) and speaking of Gomez, he led off with a HR vs him last week.

                              What I do like is that both teams have been slow starters the over the last week (1 run combined in last three games for each team)..
                              But the main factor is Volquez vs the Milw bats.. If the line was a little lower, I might think about it, but -160 was a little to high for me from what I saw.

                              Im a little annoyed right now.. the other three games I was close to pulling trigger on (well, at least did some extensive research on) was philly/atl, lad/sf, and det/clev.. of course all three woulda been winners
                              Comment
                              • b1slickguy
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-24-11
                                • 11959

                                #16
                                Ramirez gets the RBI double.
                                Good insight on Volquez vs MIL batters.
                                Your fear was spot on, d3.
                                Good luck.
                                Comment
                                • dlunc3
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 10-31-09
                                  • 9129

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by b1slickguy
                                  Ramirez gets the RBI double.
                                  Good insight on Volquez vs MIL batters.
                                  Your fear was spot on, d3.
                                  Good luck.
                                  Glad we were able to dodge that one.. Wish I coulda dodged the royals one too. Guess that's why these are tough.. Can't cap errors. Guy shoulda been stranded, instead error in right field scores a run. On to the next one..
                                  Comment
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