RollinDo's High 5 Friday

[RollinDo]

Some nice games tomorrow after 2 straight with some tough games all around. Let's see if I can bring some winners to the plate...

These stuck out to me right off the bat and did about 1/2 hour of research so that tomorrow work will be minimal and a matter of how I want to play them. I've never played more than 4 games in a single day, but I feel pretty good about 4 of 5 of them hitting.

1) TB - CINCY (Under 7)
2) Miami - Philly (Under 3.5 -1st 5)
3) Baltimore ML
4) Houston (Under 3)
5) San Fran -1

Be back tomorrow with rationale behind these and what I intend to do with them...probably an IF bet with 3, and play 2 separately.

[PorkChop]

Love Marlins/Phillies under 3.5 1st 5

[robbeduagain]

I'm with you on Baltimore

[RollinDo]

Yeah, I haven't seen the line yet, but imagine it will be like -150.
If so, may go with Under 3.

[RollinDo]

I already locked in Orioles ML -135.
Nice price for Tillman, who usually gets it done at home. O's got a day off so they should be ready to tee off against the Jays righty.

Gotta like Texas with Darvish. Instead of high juice, thinking run line might be best, or Houston Under 3 runs...I doubt if they have Under 3.5 runs.

[RollinDo]

I'm with you on Baltimore

Line could go up to -145...though I'm not very good at predicting line movements.

[robbeduagain]

Line could go up to -145...though I'm not very good at predicting line movements.

I took it this morning at -135, along with a rl bet at +150

[RollinDo]

I took it this morning at -135, along with a rl bet at +150

Just a bit of advice ffrom a 2nd year sports bettor, don't go crazy with both plays on 1 team...If they happen to lose, you got a major hole to dig out of...and may I suggest if you do both, go with -1 instead of -1.5 if available. If they win by 1, you lose a little, but if you choose the former, you win with 2nd being a push instead of a loss.
Line did move from -135 to -141.

[RollinDo]

Consider Giants -1 tonight...coming off a loss and want to get back on winning track. Though Dela Rosa has some success vs Giants, he has been poor on the road, while Bumgarner is the better pitcher. Both teams hit lefties well so far this year, so while I'm an Under guy, the Over has a good chance tonight.
Giants have handled Rockies at home in past 20 games.

[robbeduagain]

Just a bit of advice ffrom a 2nd year sports bettor, don't go crazy with both plays on 1 team...If they happen to lose, you got a major hole to dig out of...and may I suggest if you do both, go with -1 instead of -1.5 if available. If they win by 1, you lose a little, but if you choose the former, you win with 2nd being a push instead of a loss.
Line did move from -135 to -141.

Thanks for the advice. I'm trying to play this as a -1 line. I play 1.5 u on the ml and 1 u on the rl. From what I've read on this forum, shouldn't that be the equivalent?

[RavensFan2k3]

Go O's!

[RollinDo]

Sorry my comments are scattered so far, but here's my take on the other 2 plays tonight:

TB @ Cincy (Under 7)
This should be a nice pitcher's duel with both teams unfamiliar with opposing pitcher.
Cueto was a complete stud at home last year with an ERA of Under 2.00, while Price was a shade over 3.00 on the road. Reds do not hit lefties well since last season.
Only concern is Reds pen (from what I've read), but I think both pitchers go 7 innings or so and total may be Under 4 at that point and Rays pen is solid.

Houston (Under 3 runs)
Darvish for Texas is 10-1 in April and has an ERA that leans to 2.00 in the month.
Houston has had relative success vs Darvish, but he is capable of pitching a shutout or giving up 2 or less runs. I just hope he goes 8 innings so we don't have to rely on bullpen, which was solid last year, but ERA not good in young season.

[robbeduagain]

Sorry my comments are scattered so far, but here's my take on the other 2 plays tonight:

TB @ Cincy (Under 7)
This should be a nice pitcher's duel with both teams unfamiliar with opposing pitcher.
Cueto was a complete stud at home last year with an ERA of Under 2.00, while Price was a shade over 3.00 on the road. Reds do not hit lefties well since last season.
Only concern is Reds pen (from what I've read), but I think both pitchers go 7 innings or so and total may be Under 4 at that point and Rays pen is solid.

Houston (Under 3 runs)
Darvish for Texas is 10-1 in April and has an ERA that leans to 2.00 in the month.
Houston has had relative success vs Darvish, but he is capable of pitching a shutout or giving up 2 or less runs. I just hope he goes 8 innings so we don't have to rely on bullpen, which was solid last year, but ERA not good in young season.

Not that it matters, but I think Broxton is healthy. That might make it worse, lol

[jds07v]

Robbeduagain......

There is a runline calculator available for download here. If you bet the moneyline and the runline, you are basically betting the -1, or vice versa. By selecting both the moneyline and the runline, you save yourself a few cents per bet, as the -1 line is usually a bit higher on 5dimes than doing each separately.

To make your own -1, risk the same on the runline as you bet to win on the moneyline.

Example: Bet 108 to win 80 on the moneyline (-135) and bet 80 to win 120 on the runline (+150). If Orioles win by 1, you break even (as you would on the -1) and if you win both you're up 200.

I did the excel program with the current odds. Selecting 5Dimes current -1 option the odds are -104, if you do it manually its -101. Every cent matters

[robbeduagain]

Robbeduagain......

There is a runline calculator available for download here. If you bet the moneyline and the runline, you are basically betting the -1, or vice versa. By selecting both the moneyline and the runline, you save yourself a few cents per bet, as the -1 line is usually a bit higher on 5dimes than doing each separately.

To make your own -1, risk the same on the runline as you bet to win on the moneyline.

Example: Bet 108 to win 80 on the moneyline (-135) and bet 80 to win 120 on the runline (+150). If Orioles win by 1, you break even (as you would on the -1) and if you win both you're up 200.

I did the excel program with the current odds. Selecting 5Dimes current -1 option the odds are -104, if you do it manually its -101. Every cent matters

Hey jds, thanks a lot. That makes sense.

[robbeduagain]

Consider Giants -1 tonight...coming off a loss and want to get back on winning track. Though Dela Rosa has some success vs Giants, he has been poor on the road, while Bumgarner is the better pitcher. Both teams hit lefties well so far this year, so while I'm an Under guy, the Over has a good chance tonight.
Giants have handled Rockies at home in past 20 games.

I like the Giants play. That was on my short list for tonight

[RollinDo]

Here are tonight's plays:

1) Baltimore (ML) -135
2) TB-Cincy (Under 7) -115
3) IF bet:
A) SF Giants -122
B) Mia-Phil (Under 3.5 1st 5)

4) Parlay (Payout +110)
Texas (ML) / Tor Raps (ML)

Also considering Hou-TX (Under 4 -1st 5) +100
Both starters solid...banking on Darvish to give up just 1 and Feldman less than 3

[RollinDo]

Adding:

Hou-TX (Under 4.5)
.8 units to win .65
Hou-TX (Over 4)
.6 units to win .53 units

I know - crazy bet, but kinda fun to watch.
If it hits 4 runs, then I cash.
If it goes Under, win a matter of cents.
If it goes Over 4, lose a few bucks.
Not too risky.

[RollinDo]

May add Padres ML later after 1st games played.

[RollinDo]

Well, went 2-2-1 with my original 5 plays.
Was expecting better...especially with Orioles...still scratching my head about that one...thought O's offense would bring it.
Will be back next Friday for some more High Fives.