A4K's 2014 Baseball Thread

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  • A4K
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-08-12
    • 5243

    #1
    A4K's 2014 Baseball Thread
    With a week of games in the books, I am ready to begin handicapping the Major League Baseball season.

    A little bit about me and my selections...

    I am an avid sports fan who has been handicapping games for close to twenty years. Like many sports bettors, early on in my career, I did not understand the concept of money money management and like a lot of suckers I chased losses. I am now and will always be a firm believer in proper money management and the art of grinding out a profit. For a great article on proper bet size and money management, click HERE.

    I am starting this season with a $5,000 bankroll. A very large portion of my selections will have me wagering between 1 - 3% of my bankroll. Under rare circumstances, I will bet as high as 5% of my bankroll on one selection, but that won't happen very often. All of my selections will be posted prior to first pitch and contain the amount wagered, odds, and season long record.

    All of my selections are based on handicapping each event. I do not subscribe to any chase systems or mechanical methods to make my selections.

    I invite constructive criticism, feedback, and questions, but I will not respond to vulgar commentary.
  • A4K
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-08-12
    • 5243

    #2
    April 8th, 2014

    BR: $5,000

    Astros at Blue Jays -1.5 (+115)

    Wagering $100 to win $115 (5Dimes Reduced @ 11:20 AM PST)

    2% bankroll wagered on this selection
    Comment
    • A4K
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-08-12
      • 5243

      #3
      April 8th, 2014

      BR: $5,000

      Mets at Braveso7.5 (+105)

      Wagering $100 to win $105 (5Dimes Reduced @ 1:10 PM PST)

      2% bankroll wagered on this selection

      I looked up batter vs. pitcher historical data for this match-up. To my surprise, the Mets have 5 batters (Murphy, Wright, Young, Duda, Tejada) who have very good numbers against Harang. In addition, a few Braves have some decent numbers against Bartolo Colon. I think this total is lower than it needs to be because neither team has been hitting much. I think both of these journeymen pitchers are ripe to reverse the slumbering bats of each team. In addition to the starting pitching being ripe for some runs, the Mets have a patchwork bullpen that is susceptible to give up a lot of runs towards the end of a game.
      Comment
      • A4K
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 10-08-12
        • 5243

        #4
        Blue Jays cashed. Could have won by more, but Joey Bats gets picked off in a key spot. Oh well, I'll take the win.
        Comment
        • A4K
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-08-12
          • 5243

          #5
          April 8th, 2014 RECAP

          Blue Jays cash with a win 5-2 over the Stros. + $115

          Mets @ Braves o7.5 comes woefully short as the Braves bats stay asleep. The Mets did their part, but the Braves just couldn't get any key hits off of Bartolo Colon. -$100

          RECORD: 1-1 +$15

          Bankroll $5,015
          Comment
          • A4K
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 10-08-12
            • 5243

            #6
            April 9th, 2014

            Riding the Blue Jays again.

            Astros at Blue Jays -1.5 (+105)

            Wagering $100 to win $105 (5Dimes Reduced Overnight Line, @ 10:45 PM PST)

            Bankroll @ $5,015
            Comment
            • A4K
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 10-08-12
              • 5243

              #7
              April 9th, 2014 RECAP

              Blue Jays cruise to an easy and convincing victory.

              Record: 2-1 +$120

              Bankroll: $5,120
              Comment
              • A4K
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 10-08-12
                • 5243

                #8
                April 10th

                Native Americans @ White Sox (+114)

                Wagering $102 to win $116.28 (5Dimes Reduced @ 11:00PM PST)

                I like the lefty Danks pitching at home versus an Indians team that just played a double header the day before. Home dog + lefty + DH day before = a good value bet.


                Comment
                • A4K
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 10-08-12
                  • 5243

                  #9
                  April 10th RECAP

                  White Sox win despite striking out a lot.

                  Record: 3-1 +$236.28 on the season

                  Bankroll: $5,236.28
                  Comment
                  • A4K
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 10-08-12
                    • 5243

                    #10
                    April 11th

                    Marlins @ Phillies (+110)

                    Wagering $105 to win $115.50 (5Dimes @ 10:15 AM PST)

                    Marlins @ Phillies -1.5 (+240)

                    Wagering $50 to win $120 (5Dimes @ 10:15 AM PST)
                    Comment
                    • Jimmy the Creep
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 03-14-14
                      • 191

                      #11
                      So who are you betting on ? I can't seem to make heads or tails of it. And who is Kelly ? 1% per star. I was lost half way through the second page. But if it's working for you keep doing it. I just hate things that give me a head ***************.
                      Comment
                      • A4K
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 10-08-12
                        • 5243

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Jimmy the Creep
                        So who are you betting on ? I can't seem to make heads or tails of it. And who is Kelly ? 1% per star. I was lost half way through the second page. But if it's working for you keep doing it. I just hate things that give me a head ***************.
                        It's pretty straightforward Jimmy.

                        1. I am betting on the team that has odds listed to the right of their name.

                        2. I have NOT mentioned Kelly Criterion on this thread.

                        3. It is impossible for you to have gotten lost halfway through the second page, when your post started the second page.

                        Are you posting on the right thread?
                        Comment
                        • A4K
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-08-12
                          • 5243

                          #13
                          April 11th RECAP

                          Phillies battered around Fernandez and won their first home game of the young season after losing the first few.

                          Phillies ML +110 WINNER $115.50
                          Phillies RL -1.5 +240 WINNER $120

                          Record: 4-1 + $471.78

                          Bankroll: $5,471.78



                          Comment
                          • A4K
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 10-08-12
                            • 5243

                            #14
                            April 12th

                            Indians @ White Sox +117

                            White Sox ML +117

                            Wagering $110 to win $128.70

                            5Dimes Overnight Reduced Line @ 12:45 AM PST

                            BR: $5,471.78
                            Comment
                            • WildStrawberries
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 04-10-14
                              • 68

                              #15
                              I had the White Sox yesterday as well. Sheesh.

                              Who do you like today? I have MIN, HOU and COL.
                              Comment
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