And The Winneers Are $$$$$

[Living The Dream]

Ouch what a brutal day. Didn't think it was possible but -9.35 unit day. So sorry everyone

Yeah today sucked but you know what I'm still up so much from this thread that you have to figure days like this would happen

[Living The Dream]

Honestly why are you posting here?

i feel bad for everyone who jumped on this bandwagon at +73 units or whatever it was.. this is exactly what i told my buddy would happen once he started tailing at the same point.. VR had a great run to get where he was, but you have to know that the law of averages would catch up to him soon enough when playing this many plays. i have also learned the hard way that playing 8-12 plays per day will almost NEVER work out in your favor, especially playing so many favs.. anyways, i would be careful tailing in here going forward.. cry about my posts all you want, but you will be thanking me for writing this when he inevitably crashes down to earth in the next few weeks..

[vegasreaper]

Because as said before he focuses on negativity and that's why that's what he attracts in life. Laws of attraction,we'll see where I finish my friend and THEN you can say how LUCKY I was

[vegasreaper]

Almost scared to post today but here we go with Wednesdays plays 6-15

953-LAD-1.5-135
956-SFG-1.5+110
958-WAS-145
968-CWS-165
969-CLE-140
971-MIN+120
978-PHI+150
979-HOU+110

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

[chaka]

Almost scared to post today but here we go with Wednesdays plays 6-15

953-LAD-1.5-135
956-SFG-1.5+110
958-WAS-145
968-CWS-165
969-CLE-140
971-MIN+120
978-PHI+150
979-HOU+110

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

The strength of good handicapper is conviction.. Don't worry about what people think..your way has earned you almost 200 units in 8 months of ball...what happened yesterday has happened to everyone here. ...probably enough times it's better for them to want to tail you
. They may not have had occur in one day but it's no different than a 3 day span of 0-3, 1-3, 0-3...other than the drama of a single day occurrence it's the same thing

several of those games changed leads multiple times or the losing team had ample chances. Atlanta had bases loaded no outs ..double play to end.. Sf had chances early to get up by 3-4 but failed. Sea blew big lead

you won't win everyday it's just a fact. Keep head up

[chaka]

i feel bad for everyone who jumped on this bandwagon at +73 units or whatever it was.. this is exactly what i told my buddy would happen once he started tailing at the same point.. VR had a great run to get where he was, but you have to know that the law of averages would catch up to him soon enough when playing this many plays. i have also learned the hard way that playing 8-12 plays per day will almost NEVER work out in your favor, especially playing so many favs.. anyways, i would be careful tailing in here going forward.. cry about my posts all you want, but you will be thanking me for writing this when he inevitably crashes down to earth in the next few weeks..

Well maybe you should post all your plays for everyone to assess your ability..easy to criticize...especially when you don't have the ability to do it well...otherwise you would have your own thread

no one will be thanking for for your post as members don't come to this thread for you


to recap vr' season had one followed the whole year... $100 player is up $5300 $50 player up $2650 and a $1k player up $53k so let's see your numbers.. How are you doing?

Likely the inverse fitting your name

[nash13]

Hi, first of all thanks for the great effort here and putting together all this daily work for us.
I collected most of the picks in retrospective and try to reanalyze if there are any patterns in your selections.
I recognized that only Home Underdogs of yours are "underperforming". Other selections are at a top level.
I don't know about your past years, but if you re evaluate the site and dog/fave status of them you might something to tweak here and there.

Secondly, I recognized a difference between Run Line and Money Line Picks. For what it's worth: If you try to take RL Picks based on your ML selections the yield goes down about 3%. That's a lot long term and should be in the back of the mind of the posters trying to take big time favs at RL Odds.

And about having a "bad day" now and then. Go back to this topic between 11th and 13th of May. 20-4 in 3 days +11.5 Units. In my estimations your Yield is right around 10% and that's unheard of. This is right up there with the best in the biz. And I know what I'm talking about, I am working with them. So be calm, don't let any complains bother you.

PS: If you have your selections from past years, I may try to reanalyze some patterns too. If you want, you can shoot me a PM.

[chaka]

Hi, first of all thanks for the great effort here and putting together all this daily work for us.
I collected most of the picks in retrospective and try to reanalyze if there are any patterns in your selections.
I recognized that only Home Underdogs of yours are "underperforming". Other selections are at a top level.
I don't know about your past years, but if you re evaluate the site and dog/fave status of them you might something to tweak here and there.

Secondly, I recognized a difference between Run Line and Money Line Picks. For what it's worth: If you try to take RL Picks based on your ML selections the yield goes down about 3%. That's a lot long term and should be in the back of the mind of the posters trying to take big time favs at RL Odds.

And about having a "bad day" now and then. Go back to this topic between 11th and 13th of May. 20-4 in 3 days +11.5 Units. In my estimations your Yield is right around 10% and that's unheard of. This is right up there with the best in the biz. And I know what I'm talking about, I am working with them. So be calm, don't let any complains bother you.

PS: If you have your selections from past years, I may try to reanalyze some patterns too. If you want, you can shoot me a PM.

hes only been playing rl a short time but have u run a calculation on how much risk laying -1 vs ml would have increased ROI on wins and the saved juice on heavy ml losses that still lost as rl picks??

i would be curious to see this data... RL is not for tool for every game or every team
cubs and cardinals would be huge change in ROI as they have been winning a high pct by 2+

Did you by chance categorize by ml groups -120-140 etc, -170-190?

[chaka]

I mean data on -1 or rl since season began not last week

another tip for playing heavy favs is parlay ml like a pair of -250 should pay even money or close


Cubs are not going to be able to maintain winning at 73% clip all year either

[nash13]

hes only been playing rl a short time but have u run a calculation on how much risk laying -1 vs ml would have increased ROI on wins and the saved juice on heavy ml losses that still lost as rl picks??

i would be curious to see this data... RL is not for tool for every game or every team
cubs and cardinals would be huge change in ROI as they have been winning a high pct by 2+

Did you by chance categorize by ml groups -120-140 etc, -170-190?

So far I only took games with -1.5 for EVERY selection. So RRL too for Dogs, which includes heavier value in my estimations.
I will categorize the selections by odds later. I think it is forbidden to post links in the forum so I can upload it to google docs later so everyone can check up and post opinions. If and only if vegasreaper likes, he can send me or anyone ales past selections from last years. this may help analyzing things further.

do yo have any suggestions for odd ranges to summarize?
i use decimal odds, it is easier for calculations.

[chaka]

So far I only took games with -1.5 for EVERY selection. So RRL too for Dogs, which includes heavier value in my estimations.
I will categorize the selections by odds later. I think it is forbidden to post links in the forum so I can upload it to google docs later so everyone can check up and post opinions. If and only if vegasreaper likes, he can send me or anyone ales past selections from last years. this may help analyzing things further.

do yo have any suggestions for odd ranges to summarize?
i use decimal odds, it is easier for calculations.

ok I'm short time at the moment but can you run a ytd with dogs as straight one unit plays and ml up to -149 as straight plays and -150 + as -1.5 RL
as a guideline I would probably try -1 from 150-180 then -1.5 from there but for simplicity use the-1.5

all plays as RL -favs and dogs would never be recommended in my opinion....

I am curious to see risk vs return comparing as posted by VR vs the above thresholds

Reaper- you do realize you are valuing your dog plays more than your fav plays right? playing favs "to win a unit" but dogs "risking a unit"

[vegasreaper]

Add NYM-165

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

[vegasreaper]

The strength of good handicapper is conviction.. Don't worry about what people think..your way has earned you almost 200 units in 8 months of ball...what happened yesterday has happened to everyone here. ...probably enough times it's better for them to want to tail you
. They may not have had occur in one day but it's no different than a 3 day span of 0-3, 1-3, 0-3...other than the drama of a single day occurrence it's the same thing

several of those games changed leads multiple times or the losing team had ample chances. Atlanta had bases loaded no outs ..double play to end.. Sf had chances early to get up by 3-4 but failed. Sea blew big lead

you won't win everyday it's just a fact. Keep head up

Thanks Chaka really appreciate it...

[vegasreaper]

Well maybe you should post all your plays for everyone to assess your ability..easy to criticize...especially when you don't have the ability to do it well...otherwise you would have your own thread

no one will be thanking for for your post as members don't come to this thread for you


to recap vr' season had one followed the whole year... $100 player is up $5300 $50 player up $2650 and a $1k player up $53k so let's see your numbers.. How are you doing?

Likely the inverse fitting your name

He has his own thread Chaka. I can't see it though as I have him on ignore. I don't like negativity. I love your input however will check into this. Whatever helps the benefit of followers.

[vegasreaper]

Hi, first of all thanks for the great effort here and putting together all this daily work for us.
I collected most of the picks in retrospective and try to reanalyze if there are any patterns in your selections.
I recognized that only Home Underdogs of yours are "underperforming". Other selections are at a top level.
I don't know about your past years, but if you re evaluate the site and dog/fave status of them you might something to tweak here and there.

Secondly, I recognized a difference between Run Line and Money Line Picks. For what it's worth: If you try to take RL Picks based on your ML selections the yield goes down about 3%. That's a lot long term and should be in the back of the mind of the posters trying to take big time favs at RL Odds.

And about having a "bad day" now and then. Go back to this topic between 11th and 13th of May. 20-4 in 3 days +11.5 Units. In my estimations your Yield is right around 10% and that's unheard of. This is right up there with the best in the biz. And I know what I'm talking about, I am working with them. So be calm, don't let any complains bother you.

PS: If you have your selections from past years, I may try to reanalyze some patterns too. If you want, you can shoot me a PM.

The first year I used this method I finished the season +138 units. I just shot out of the gate this year

[vegasreaper]

ok I'm short time at the moment but can you run a ytd with dogs as straight one unit plays and ml up to -149 as straight plays and -150 + as -1.5 RL
as a guideline I would probably try -1 from 150-180 then -1.5 from there but for simplicity use the-1.5

all plays as RL -favs and dogs would never be recommended in my opinion....

I am curious to see risk vs return comparing as posted by VR vs the above thresholds

Reaper- you do realize you are valuing your dog plays more than your fav plays right? playing favs "to win a unit" but dogs "risking a unit"

I will go back and research. Don't quite get the over valuing of dog. I knew dogs were costing us so I left them off then figured why leave off I will play opposite my numbers and take favorite when it favored the dog. Then of course dogs started winning so switched back.

[chaka]

I will go back and research. Don't quite get the over valuing of dog. I knew dogs were costing us so I left them off then figured why leave off I will play opposite my numbers and take favorite when it favored the dog. Then of course dogs started winning so switched back.

this would be easier in spreadsheet format but in a nutshell you play favs to "win one unit" which we will call $ 100
so a fav or -140 risk is $ 140 to win $ 100 but you are not playing your dogs to win a unit, you are "risking a unit" which pays over a unit

take phily + 180 you are risking a full unit to win $ 180....implied win probability of + 180 is roughly 35%yet you are risking a full unit rather than trying to win a unit risking $56 to win $100 you still get paid 1.8x your wager if you win so you are not being shorted any value
take another team at + 110..you still risk 100 to win 110 rather than $91 to win $ 100
but comparing both +110 and +180 wagers

you are risking the same amount on both a team with about 47% implied win pct and one with 35% implied win pct.. do you really expect to win your +180 games equally as often as a +110 play?

next post ill give an example that might surprise you

[vegasreaper]

this would be easier in spreadsheet format but in a nutshell you play favs to "win one unit" which we will call $ 100
so a fav or -140 risk is $ 140 to win $ 100 but you are not playing your dogs to win a unit, you are "risking a unit" which pays over a unit

take phily + 180 you are risking a full unit to win $ 180....implied win probability of + 180 is roughly 35%yet you are risking a full unit rather than trying to win a unit risking $56 to win $100 you still get paid 1.8x your wager if you win so you are not being shorted any value
take another team at + 110..you still risk 100 to win 110 rather than $91 to win $ 100
but comparing both +110 and +180 wagers

you are risking the same amount on both a team with about 47% implied win pct and one with 35% implied win pct.. do you really expect to win your +180 games equally as often as a +110 play?

next post ill give an example that might surprise you

Got you,thanks Chaka

[chaka]

example lets take 4 games -140, -125, +110 , and +180
-140 and +180 lose -125 and +110 win

favs playing to win one unit and dogs risking one unit
wager 1.40 to win 1 loss -1.4
1.25 to win 1 win +1
1 to win 1.1 win + 1.1
1 to win 1.8 loss -1

total risk 4.65 units trying to in 4.90 units 2 win 2 loss net -.30units -6%ROI

favs AND dogs playing to win one unit
again wager 1.40 to win 1 loss -1.4
1.25 to win 1 win 1
.91 to win 1 win 1
.56 to win 1 loss -.55

total risk 4 .12 u trying to win 4 units win 2 lose 2 net+ .05 +1.2% ROI

you risked a half unit less and turned the net .35u in your favor


lets say all 4 win Wager style A win 4 loss 0 risk 465$ win $ 490 105% roi
style B win 4 loss 0 risk $412 win $ 400 97% roi
Style A risked more won more with 8% more ROI but hold this for a minute

all 4 lose

wager style A lose 4.65 units Style B loses 4.12
B loses 1/2 unit less

all but the +180 dog win

Wager style A risk $ 465 won $ 210 45% gain style B risk 4.12 won $ 245 59.5% gain

B risked 1/2 unit less won .35 unit more

..bottom line is winning all 4 is predicated on hitting that 35% win pct dog....Assume (for this example)we always hit the other 3 games 100% of time and win the +180 dog 35% of the time....

35% of the time style B earns less than style A
65% of the time Style B RISKS LESS AND WINS MORE(NETS MORE probably better phrasing)


make sense??

[robert1d]

chaka...it makes a lot of sense, but I need to read a few more times

[vegasreaper]

example lets take 4 games -140, -125, +110 , and +180
-140 and +180 lose -125 and +110 win

favs playing to win one unit and dogs risking one unit
wager 1.40 to win 1 loss -1.4
1.25 to win 1 win +1
1 to win 1.1 win + 1.1
1 to win 1.8 loss -1

total risk 4.65 units trying to in 4.90 units 2 win 2 loss net -.30units -6%ROI

favs AND dogs playing to win one unit
again wager 1.40 to win 1 loss -1.4
1.25 to win 1 win 1
.91 to win 1 win 1
.56 to win 1 loss -.55

total risk 4 .12 u trying to win 4 units win 2 lose 2 net+ .05 +1.2% ROI

you risked a half unit less and turned the net .35u in your favor


lets say all 4 win Wager style A win 4 loss 0 risk 465$ win $ 490 105% roi
style B win 4 loss 0 risk $412 win $ 400 97% roi
Style A risked more won more with 8% more ROI but hold this for a minute

all 4 lose

wager style A lose 4.65 units Style B loses 4.12
B loses 1/2 unit less

all but the +180 dog win

Wager style A risk $ 465 won $ 210 45% gain style B risk 4.12 won $ 245 59.5% gain

B risked 1/2 unit less won .35 unit more

..bottom line is winning all 4 is predicated on hitting that 35% win pct dog....Assume (for this example)we always hit the other 3 games 100% of time and win the +180 dog 35% of the time....

35% of the time style B earns less than style A
65% of the time Style B RISKS LESS AND WINS MORE(NETS MORE probably better phrasing)


make sense??

Yes Chaka I am going to go back through all plays and see how we would have fared

[iloseagain]

Well maybe you should post all your plays for everyone to assess your ability..easy to criticize...especially when you don't have the ability to do it well...otherwise you would have your own thread

no one will be thanking for for your post as members don't come to this thread for you


to recap vr' season had one followed the whole year... $100 player is up $5300 $50 player up $2650 and a $1k player up $53k so let's see your numbers.. How are you doing?

Likely the inverse fitting your name

I have a thread numbnuts.. Feel free to check it out.. Doing better than 98% of people on this forum.. Lmao nice try bud.. Love popping in here and ruffling all of you queers feathers..

[iloseagain]

Honestly why are you posting here?

Because its funny to me the amount of people who go apeshit because of one post in this thread especially.. And go ahead and say that "all i do is troll" and all the retarded useless shit that you all spew whenever i say something u don't like.. That couldn't be further from the truth. This thread is full of babies. I don't do this in any other threads actually. Its a bit humourous to me the reactions that are achieved in this thread from one comment.

[chaka]

Yes Chaka I am going to go back through all plays and see how we would have fared

From just the couple weeks I've been following favs Have been prominent ..I look fwd to see what risk amounts could have been reduced to with -1 & -1.5 lines in your arsenal....some of which can reduce risk by .5 to over a unit per play... Downside is you turn a ml win into a loss here and there but don't use rl with low totals, low scoring teams, teams who play high pct 1 run games, teams in scoring drought


Obviously there's some subjectivity involved...for example by time I saw cws line with sale pitching it was -205... With their month of futility I'm not laying 205 but they wouldn't be a rl play for me because of recent failures...I would have looked at -1... Now they did cover 1.5 but Laying 1.5 coming off losing streak isn't what I'm willing to wager on...

[vegasreaper]

I can't find anywhere that shows me what line was at -1 so will have to go with the 1.5 unless you know a site

[nash13]

I can't find anywhere that shows me what line was at -1 so will have to go with the 1.5 unless you know a site

oddsportal.com has all the lines.
go to mlb there and in the AH section you can see RL, RRL, etc.

[vegasreaper]

oddsportal.com has all the lines.
go to mlb there and in the AH section you can see RL, RRL, etc.

Don't see AH section??

[vegasreaper]

After a small profitable day we are now at a positive 54.20 UNITS

[nash13]

http://www.oddsportal.com/baseball/usa/mlb/results/ first here
and then select the game, here is an example

http://www.oddsportal.com/baseball/usa/mlb/los-angeles-angels-minnesota-twins-nsrZjeam/

and on tio you can see AH for Asian Handicap which transfers internationally to Run Line, Reverse Run Line and other Handicap methods.

[vegasreaper]

Thanks my friend well I just made it through April been up all night have to hit sack.. Difference was +1.60 units.
Took all DOGS and laid whatever to make 1 unit
Took FAVS up to 149 straight to make 1 unit
Took FAVS OVER 150 AND LAID 1.5 RUNS

[vegasreaper]

Here are the plays for Thursday 6-16

905-MIL+165
907-WAS-165
910-TBR-105
911-TEX-110
913-BAL+140
915-NYY-145
918-KCR+105
920-PHI+120

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

[nash13]

I will post a spreadsheet later tonight, with the plays divided by home/away status and dogs vs favs. So far it looks like Away selections are superior to Home Selections. And Run Lin and/or Reverse Run Line plays a bigger role in certain spots.

[Puffdog]

Looking good.. where is the love guys?!

[intermission]

Its a good plus units night

[LetsgoJay]

Choo choo! It's not a race it's a marathon! VR you had 1 bad day out of the week so let's consider that paying taxes! You came out with positive units today! Good luck tomorrow!