Tommy Karate/Baseball Plays/2014

**Tommy Karate** · 08-01-14, 05:06 PM

digging into games now fellas....phillies look live at a price

**KRIT** · 08-01-14, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

digging into games now fellas....phillies look live at a price

I agree. Fister has been lights out lately, but got to think Phillies are playing a lot looser now that thr trade deadline has passed. Nats bats still MIA.

**Tommy Karate** · 08-01-14, 05:47 PM

Friday 8.1

(1u) Phillies +200
(1u) Marlins -1.5/180
(1u) Mets -115
(1u) Rangers +160
(2u) Angels +100
(1u) Over Yankees 9
(1u) Over Tigers 9/-125

**Tommy Karate** · 08-01-14, 06:48 PM

(1u) Under Cards 7
(1u) Bluejays +100
(1u) Under Whitesox 7.5 (M5_Sale)

**Tommy Karate** · 08-01-14, 08:35 PM

(1u) A's -1.5/-120
(2u) DBacks +110

**Tommy Karate** · 08-01-14, 08:37 PM

(1u) Padres +120
(2u) Dodgers -150

**Tommy Karate** · 08-01-14, 08:51 PM

Sat 8.2

(3u) Under DBacks 9 (M5_Kulpa)
(1u) Under Astros 8.5/-120 (M5_Baker)
(3u) Over Phillies 7/-120 (M5_Guccione)
(2u) Under Cards 7.5 (M5_Cuzzi)
(3u) Redsox -110 (M4)
(3u) Rays -120 (M4)

**Tommy Karate** · 08-01-14, 08:57 PM

why the fuk did they remove verlander????!!!!!!!!!!!!!

the guy needs a complete game win to get his mojo back.....unbelievable.

**RollinDo** · 08-01-14, 10:10 PM

Should we continue to play Baltimore Unders.
Wow.
Hitting almost every night.

**RollinDo** · 08-01-14, 10:38 PM

Really like that Under in AZ tomorrow.
Though Anderson got throttled vs Pirates at their place, he will likely make some adjustments and hold his own.
And he has come on of late.
I have cashed in 3 of 3 Unders with Anderson pitching.
Going to lock it in at 9 now...not sure if it will get down to 8.5 or go up to 9.5, but I like it at 9.
Can see a 4-2 type game.
2 other Unders I'm liking right now without research are:
Brews - Cards
Giants-Mets

**Tommy Karate** · 08-01-14, 10:45 PM

i guess the 60 cent move was right...
unreal...

and the 35 cent move on hou as well...

time to steam chase i guess...

**Tommy Karate** · 08-02-14, 01:46 PM

here we go again - lester drops 50 cents in his oak debut

**RollinDo** · 08-02-14, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

here we go again - lester drops 50 cents in his oak debut

So KC is the play?
These line moves I don't get.

**Tommy Karate** · 08-02-14, 03:03 PM

(2u) A's -1.5/+120

**Tommy Karate** · 08-02-14, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

So KC is the play?
These line moves I don't get.

im gonna fade the move again, although didnt want to lay 170

**Pauulzcappin** · 08-02-14, 03:08 PM

was also gonna fade blindly the line movement but not sure about it yet

**RollinDo** · 08-02-14, 03:32 PM

Doesn't big line movement mean go with it?
Just pretty new to watching lines.
Thanks

**KRIT** · 08-02-14, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

here we go again - lester drops 50 cents in his oak debut

So what's the consensus on big time line moves so far in MLB (30-40 cents or more)?

**RavensFan2k3** · 08-02-14, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by KRIT

So what's the consensus on big time line moves so far in MLB (30-40 cents or more)?

There's too many variables for there to be a consensus, IMO.

**Tommy Karate** · 08-02-14, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

was also gonna fade blindly the line movement but not sure about it yet

Originally posted by RollinDo

Doesn't big line movement mean go with it?
Just pretty new to watching lines.
Thanks

Originally posted by KRIT

So what's the consensus on big time line moves so far in MLB (30-40 cents or more)?

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

There's too many variables for there to be a consensus, IMO.

my buddy backtested the move of 30 cents or more the last few years and there was no alpha...
fading these moves was killing it earilier in the season, and now is reverting to the mean. this will likely be the last time i blindly fade it....

**Tommy Karate** · 08-02-14, 04:15 PM

(3u) Over Indians 8.5 (M5_Hudson)

**KRIT** · 08-02-14, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

There's too many variables for there to be a consensus, IMO.

I tend to fade more than follow big time line moves across all sports. No amount of money should move a line 50 cents in baseball or 3 pts in basketball. Also time of the line movement matters too, overnight/early line movement is more telling (sharps).

But you're right, too many variables, very rarely can you get a consensus.

**Tommy Karate** · 08-02-14, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by KRIT

I tend to fade more than follow big time line moves across all sports. No amount of money should move a line 50 cents in baseball or 3 pts in basketball. Also time of the line movement matters too, overnight/early line movement is more telling (sharps).

But you're right, too many variables, very rarely can you get a consensus.

i could not find a reason why that dodger game moved 60 cents last night. thats a very abnormal move for baseball without at least an injury to a bat...

games like that should be a pass or fade at the valued line now. of course if you got down early and bet the closer, you should of course be a long term winner - right coin?

**No coincidences** · 08-02-14, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

i could not find a reason why that dodger game moved 60 cents last night. thats a very abnormal move for baseball without at least an injury to a bat...

games like that should be a pass or fade at the valued line now. of course if you got down early and bet the closer, you should of course be a long term winner - right coin?

Biggest bullshit theory in all of sports betting by a mile.

Justin7 and his ilk are fvcking scam artists for trying to get people to believe that means anything. Sad part is schmucks like LT and yisman still believe it like we're living in 2002.

**RavensFan2k3** · 08-02-14, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by KRIT

I tend to fade more than follow big time line moves across all sports. No amount of money should move a line 50 cents in baseball or 3 pts in basketball. Also time of the line movement matters too, overnight/early line movement is more telling (sharps).

But you're right, too many variables, very rarely can you get a consensus.

The only time I fade such a large line movement(40+) is if its the favorites favor when the majority of the money is coming in on the dog. Other than that, I have to look into a bunch of other things as well.

**Tommy Karate** · 08-02-14, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

Sat 8.2

(3u) Under DBacks 9 (M5_Kulpa)
(1u) Under Astros 8.5/-120 (M5_Baker)
(3u) Over Phillies 7/-120 (M5_Guccione)
(2u) Under Cards 7.5 (M5_Cuzzi)
(3u) Redsox -110 (M4)
(3u) Rays -120 (M4)

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

(2u) A's -1.5/+120

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

(3u) Over Indians 8.5 (M5_Hudson)

(1u) Nationals -1.5/120
(2u) Mariners +110
(1u) Under Mariners 8
(1u) Bluejays -1.5/130
(2u) Over Twins 9

**Tommy Karate** · 08-02-14, 06:52 PM

(3u) Pirates -120
(1u) Under Padres 6.5

**Tommy Karate** · 08-02-14, 07:19 PM

does anyone know the redsox record on sunday night games the last few years?
i feel like they always win and ortiz is huge in these TV games...

**Pauulzcappin** · 08-02-14, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

does anyone know the redsox record on sunday night games the last few years?
i feel like they always win and ortiz is huge in these TV games...

No idea but like a month ago Ortiz hit a bomb off joba chamberlein against detroit which won they the game in the 8th or 9th inning

you might be right

**EXhoosier10** · 08-02-14, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

(3u) Over Indians 8.5 (M5_Hudson)

I'm a bit late, but same thing with Hudson as I said about Jordan Baker

**EXhoosier10** · 08-02-14, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

I'm a bit late, but same thing with Hudson as I said about Jordan Baker

Top
Bill Miller
Doug Eddings
Victor Carapazza
Ron Kulpa
Brian Gorman
Mike Everitt
Bob Davidson
Ted Barrett
Marvin Hudson

Bottom
Adrian Johnson
Joe West
Alfonso Marquez
Gerry Davis
Greg Gibson
Jerry Layne
Andy Fletcher
David Rackley
Angel Campos
Paul Schrieber

**firekillex** · 08-02-14, 10:01 PM

and of course orioles game goes over from 3 meaningless runs in the 9th inning

TK hope you have some big plays for tomorrow goiing in large

**Tommy Karate** · 08-02-14, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

and of course orioles game goes over from 3 meaningless runs in the 9th inning

TK hope you have some big plays for tomorrow goiing in large

nope....maybe an M4 RLM play but nothing big. sea/balt under sticks out, and pitt again

really need this pitt game to stay under for a nice day

**RollinDo** · 08-02-14, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

and of course orioles game goes over from 3 meaningless runs in the 9th inning

TK hope you have some big plays for tomorrow goiing in large

Tough tough break....my biggest Under bet of the day!
2nd is in Arizona.
3rd in NY (Mets)
I actually bet twice on Orioles Under.

**RollinDo** · 08-02-14, 10:07 PM

I almost forgot what a losing day feels like...a week ago.
Damage not great, but now I can see what teams feel like after a good winning streak and then lose. Takes some gusto out of you.