Tommy Karate/Baseball Plays/2014

[StackinGreen]

I was glad to wake up and see I got a little back

I picked the score perfect actually in the Det/KC game, 2-1

Classic comeback against a good pitcher (Duffy) after scoring sixteen and get little to nothing.

[StackinGreen]

Today:

White Sox/Tribe over 8.5 (-120) LOCKED 8 units

Toronto +115
Oakland +105

[Tommy Karate]

Sat 7.12

(1u) SF -120
(2u) Orioles -1.5/130
(1u) Rays -120
(3u) Twins +140
(1u) Whitesox +170
(3u) KC -125 (M4)

[firekillex]

im liking the sox-tribe o8.5 pick and giants -120
was on blue jays last night, not sure if ill go with them again haha

what you guys thinking about dodgers-padres O7.5 ??

[GT21Megatron]

Sat 7.12

(1u) SF -120

Lots of strong movement on 75% of the board today Tommy....I like Brewers, Braves, Royals right now....the movement on the Orioles, Indians and Rays game gonna get people on the other sides

[GT21Megatron]

Why is Mcallaster -175 is what I want to know.

[Tommy Karate]

Lots of strong movement on 75% of the board today Tommy....I like Brewers, Braves, Royals right now....the movement on the Orioles, Indians and Rays game gonna get people on the other sides

price is out....TB line was just adjusted for odorizzi

[StackinGreen]

Was wondering about Royals too. Will Shields be good again or crap? He's not been that great against DET ...

Lang is on Porcello today I saw, haha.

White Sox definitely worth a shot, I'll pair them with my over, sure (slight hedge and can win both anyway)

[Tommy Karate]

I think the best way to measure yourself at this, is to always look at your results last 12 months (not win/loss record....money/units).
Everyone can get hot/cold over a few months, or even a season in 1 sport. I like to think that if you can always look back the last 12 months, and be up around 70% of the time, you're doing very well. Here is where i am in the last 12 months (since 7/11/2013) for the sports i bet.

MLB +84u (+60u 2014)
CFB -32u (Lost season profits during bowl season/alabama 26u)
CBB +50u (Another bad March Madness - lost 23u on kentucky in the final )
NFL +21u (Mistake of the century going the other way on seahawks bet and losing 25u on denver)
NBA -5u (Average season and lost 11u in playoffs)

Overall results +118u are great, but i havent done well in postseason play these past seasons. Im usually very good postseason in pros, but college i need to work on. Thats my weakness, although i feel good about my regular season plays in college...

[Tommy Karate]

Was wondering about Royals too. Will Shields be good again or crap? He's not been that great against DET ...

Lang is on Porcello today I saw, haha.

White Sox definitely worth a shot, I'll pair them with my over, sure (slight hedge and can win both anyway)

stop being a homer all the time....the whitesox bullpen is disgusting to be backing them consistently like you do..
still looking at games...just booked rays and o's...will be on hamels tonight

[RollinDo]

Going with O's Under 9. Maybe O's ML too.
Big play for me is Cards ML and Under 8.

[Tommy Karate]

my biggest play is the twins....went 3u.

[Tommy Karate]

Congrats to MLB.....he is getting on the alter today!
Seeing the Facebook updates...

[Simon Gruber]

surely Cards under 7' has to be worth at least one unit.

[Tommy Karate]

surely Cards under 7' has to be worth at least one unit.

not trusting nelson and that park always makes me dismiss most unders...

[Capybara]

i was away from 6/21 to 7/6 and wasnt really tracking the umpires/autos etc on my spreadsheet. so ive been going back this week and logging everything from the thread to get the autos/non autos accurate. im up 61u overall for MLB this season into today, but will just wait till sunday night to update results for all autos and results from 6/16 to 7/13 and then YTD.

GL with Germany....why so heavy on them?

61 units is great, good shit buddy! Keep it up!

I was actually up 40 units myself, feeling all high and mighty... then I started losing everything (usually in the most horrific way possible) and am down to +20u. So that's why I'm jumping ship for a while and withdrawing those funds if it falls any further!

As for Germany, I'm all over them because they've been the class of this world cup and it's not even close. They are a machine: technically sound and every part doing its job. I'll be shocked if they don't take the title. Argentina have great players but I don't see the overall proficiency on that side.

Why do you love the Twins today?

[StackinGreen]

stop being a homer all the time....the whitesox bullpen is disgusting to be backing them consistently like you do..
still looking at games...just booked rays and o's...will be on hamels tonight

Not a homer, White Sox consistently undervalued. Like someone else said, why is McAllister -190? Look at them both dueling it out now, looked like an over game for sure, which was my bigger play. My "homer" bet might save me ironically...

[Tommy Karate]

Sat 7.12

(1u) SF -120
(2u) Orioles -1.5/130
(1u) Rays -120
(3u) Twins +140
(1u) Whitesox +170
(3u) KC -125 (M4)

(1u) Brewers +120

[Tommy Karate]

61 units is great, good shit buddy! Keep it up!

I was actually up 40 units myself, feeling all high and mighty... then I started losing everything (usually in the most horrific way possible) and am down to +20u. So that's why I'm jumping ship for a while and withdrawing those funds if it falls any further!

As for Germany, I'm all over them because they've been the class of this world cup and it's not even close. They are a machine: technically sound and every part doing its job. I'll be shocked if they don't take the title. Argentina have great players but I don't see the overall proficiency on that side.

Why do you love the Twins today?

they got the checkmark in 4 of 4 areas i love to look at for whip (starters & pen)...

[Tommy Karate]

Not a homer, White Sox consistently undervalued. Like someone else said, why is McAllister -190? Look at them both dueling it out now, looked like an over game for sure, which was my bigger play. My "homer" bet might save me ironically...

i took them as well...haha
30 cent or > move is an autofade for me...

[StackinGreen]

I'm surprised at you because I usually play Sox totals, and when I have bet the Sox I have won, actually

[Tommy Karate]

I'm surprised at you because I usually play Sox totals, and when I have bet the Sox I have won, actually

it just seems like every other day you mention liking the whitesox....my mistake then.

[No coincidences]

i took them as well...haha
30 cent or > move is an autofade for me...

I just don't get this anymore. I mean, every once in a while it makes sense, but the % of times a 30+ cent fade has worked this year is through the roof.

[Tommy Karate]

(2u) Phillies +120

[Tommy Karate]

I just don't get this anymore. I mean, every once in a while it makes sense, but the % of times a 30+ cent fade has worked this year is through the roof.

my buddy is backtesting it on a program he has....lets see how its been the last few seasons.

[StackinGreen]

it just seems like every other day you mention liking the whitesox....my mistake then.

That's why

+160 today was nuts

Where were all the value guys, good .30 move boys

[StackinGreen]

Of course can't get a meaningless extra run in the late frame, the one that so often beats me, this time Sox 6-2 I had 8.5 over, grr

[Tommy Karate]

(1u) Padres -110
(2u) Mariners -110

[Tommy Karate]

Sun 7.13

(2u) Mariners +140
(3u) Under Indians 9 (M5_Iassogna)
(1u) Over Phillies 9
(1u) Over Cards 8.5
(3u) Astros +120 (M1)
(1u) Reds -120
(2u) Under Tigers 8.5 (M5_Miller)

[RollinDo]

Think I'll stop posting my plays on my own thread.
Seems like I win more when I don't post lately.
Only nice win for me today was Cards ML.
3 bad beats again with Colorado and Seattle Unders losing in late innings. Phils +1.5 lost too...a little late to jump on the wagon...guess I snapped their streak!

Disappointed after this week with 3 Unders losing when the total was 5 runs or more Under the total in the 8th inning. Never seen anything like this in my 16 months of betting.
Still only lost 1 unit for the week but could have been sweet. A total of 6 Unders lost in the 9th inning for me this week. Just gotta keep plugging away though...has to even out. Started week at 63% on totals and down to 60.5% since June 1.

[GT21Megatron]

Love that Astros play.....Jays are a live dog today. Dickey pitches lights out at the trop how can you pass that up I have no idea. On Brewers and KC again and doubling down

[Capybara]

Not seeing the allure in the Astros today at all. Peacock?

Speaking of which, Dex/TK, I don't have all your auto-bet criteria memorized, so where is the legend again? I don't see it on page 1 of this thread. Thanks, bro.

[StackinGreen]

Reds and Cardinals over 8.5

Nice

[Tommy Karate]

Sun 7.13

(2u) Mariners +140
(3u) Under Indians 9 (M5_Iassogna)
(1u) Over Phillies 9
(1u) Over Cards 8.5
(3u) Astros +120 (M1)
(1u) Reds -120
(2u) Under Tigers 8.5 (M5_Miller)

(1u) Cubs +140

[Tommy Karate]

Reds and Cardinals over 8.5

Nice

world cup?