World Baseball Classic(Japan vs Korea)

[Mr.Bushido]

I am a Japanese.
so I want Japan to win.
However, I analyzed this match calmly.

Japan is stronger than Korea.

It is certain.
However, -300(japan) is overestimate obviously.

The reasonable line is -130.

The Japan winning rate will rise if the Japan starting pitcher is Iwakuma.
However, perhaps it is Matsusaka.
Matsuzaka(The orthodox school to push with a fast ball) is a pitcher of the types that Korea teams like.

However, it will be difficult to beat if Matsuzaka is in good condition.

But the Japanese batting lineup is very weak.
Perhaps the Japan score will be around 3 points.
When it exploded miraculously, Korea is soundly beaten.

Therefore, this match will become the game to compete for one point of the low score.

My conclusion
In the EV, Korea is much higher than Japan.

but I am a Japanese.

I do not expect Japanese defeat.

So I do not bet ML.

I bet Korea(+1.5 +120).

The possibility that South Korea wins including the handicap is at least 60%.

I wish Japan wins with one point.


Finally,,,I'm sorry by poor English

[smitch124]

Your English is fine, thanks for the analysis....good luck

[fearless]

Excellent, thank you. I will bet this game. Your analysis was fantastic. Your English is good. Thank you sir.

[Immortality]

Nice write up

Good luck. I hope Japan wins by 1

[Mr.Bushido]

thanks.all.
good luck

[Fischnasty]

domo arigato, mr. bushido. I will be betting Japan ML so hopefully we can all win here.

[Mr.Bushido]

The situation that I was not able to expect at all.
I am glad that Japan wins.
however, My forecast did not prove right at all.
It is sad.
I saw Korea being hit like this for the first time.

[fearless]

The situation that I was not able to expect at all.
I am glad that Japan wins.
however, My forecast did not prove right at all.
It is sad.
I saw Korea being hit like this for the first time.

That's ok of course. My question is why Korea left their starting pitcher in the game for so long when he was getting hammered. I think it was terrible strategy. They should have gotten him out of there as soon as it was apparent he didn't have it (late first/early second inning).

[andywend]

The line I couldn't understand was the earlier game between China and Chinese Taipei.

China was teeing off on pitch after pitch against Japan in their first game and they simply were hitting the ball in the wrong place. Japan was also struggling against China's 2nd tier pitcher.

On the other hand, Chinese Taipei looked downright awful against Korea in their first game.

When I saw today's line with Japan being favored -300 over Korea, I figured China would be about -300 over Chinese Taipei.

My jaw dropped when I saw China was +450 on the moneyline and a 3 1/2 run dog to Chinese Taipei.

Why was Chinese Taipei so heavily favored over China today?

[Mr.Bushido]

The line I couldn't understand was the earlier game between China and Chinese Taipei.

China was teeing off on pitch after pitch against Japan in their first game and they simply were hitting the ball in the wrong place. Japan was also struggling against China's 2nd tier pitcher.

On the other hand, Chinese Taipei looked downright awful against Korea in their first game.

When I saw today's line with Japan being favored -300 over Korea, I figured China would be about -300 over Chinese Taipei.

My jaw dropped when I saw China was +450 on the moneyline and a 3 1/2 run dog to Chinese Taipei.

Why was Chinese Taipei so heavily favored over China today?

I think that it is from the past results.
It was thought that it was accidental that China fought well in Japan.
But it is a fact that Taiwan was overestimated.
I was at a loss whether I bet it on China +3.5.
However, I saw off because a Chinese pitcher was untrustworthy.

[Mr.Bushido]

That's ok of course. My question is why Korea left their starting pitcher in the game for so long when he was getting hammered. I think it was terrible strategy. They should have gotten him out of there as soon as it was apparent he didn't have it (late first/early second inning).

The Korea team had big trust for the starting pitcher.
Therefore head coach believed that he recovered himself. 'like Matsuzaka'.

[Karate]

i was shocked by his 54.00 era.
but your analysis was great, you win some you lose.
keep it up!