2009 MLB Preview: Cleveland Indians
Indians hope to turn calendar to a playoff season
According to the calendar, the Cleveland Indians are in for a winning campaign in 2009 after a ho-hum, 81-win season in 2008. Can they stay healthy enough to follow through?
Let’s see here, 2009 is an odd-numbered year, so the Cleveland Indians must be getting ready for a winning season and a spot in the playoffs, right?
The roller coaster path the Indians have taken in recent years is pretty amazing. Beginning in 1999, Cleveland has posted winning records in all but one odd-numbered year (2003), and they’ve only had one winning record in the even years (2000). But is it anything more than a coincidence?
Not being much of one to believe in capping angles like, “5-1 on the second Tuesday of the month following a full moon,” I’m inclined to think of it as just a quirk with several other factors involved other than just being an even-odd year on the calendar.
Three of the factors that played into the team dropping off from 96 wins in 2007 to just 81 last year were Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner. Injuries played into all three of those Indians seeing marked declines in their numbers, and that had way more to do with Cleveland’s slide back into the AL Central than it just being 2008.
Still, I can’t help but think this will be another winning year for the Tribe in yet another odd-numbered year. So perhaps there is something to the how the stars are aligning with the 1-3-5-7-9 crowd, and misaligning for the 2-4-6-8 calendars. Since this is the Year of the Ox, let’s go on and bull our way through their roster and chances for 2009.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
If you’re a strong believer in the Pythagorean W-L formula, the Indians should have won more than 81 games in 2008 with the calculation putting them at 85-77 after they scored 805 times (sixth in the AL) and surrendered 761 runs (ninth in the AL). Personally, the Pythagorean number is just another statistical tool for me and not the ‘be all to end all’ that some purport it to be.
No question that if you put more runs on the board than you allow, you should win more often than you lose. But where Pythagorean falls short is that baseball isn’t played just until one team gets one run ahead; it does nothing to account for a pair of 3-2 setbacks sandwiched around a 13-2 win. According to Pythagorean, your team should be 2-1, not 1-2 with those numbers. But enough of that, especially since Pythagorean is a reactive statistical tool and not a proactive one.
The two most important pieces to the everyday lineup this year will be Martinez and Hafner, two of their disappointing pieces last season. The question lingers as to how much catching Martinez will be able to handle this season after hamstring and elbow trouble limited him to less than half a season in 2008, and just 55 games behind the plate. When he’s not catching, it means Kelly Shoppach will be donning the tools of ignorance. That’s not necessarily a bad thing with the former Baylor All-America catcher coming off a season in which he banged out 21.
But when Shoppach’s catching, it means Martinez is going to be at first, at DH, or on the bench. If he’s at first or DH, then either Ryan Garko or Hafner must sit. Ideally, the foursome could share the three positions and the Indians would be ok. But if it’s another down year for both Hafner and Martinez, then it leaves a huge hole in the order and in manager Eric Wedge’s plans.
Assuming Garko ends up with the majority of the 1B time, he should find the same trio surrounding him in the diamond with Asdrubal Cabrera at second, Jhonny Peralta at short and Mark DeRosa at third. The one change there from 2008 is DeRosa over at third, and it will be interesting to see if he can adjust to just playing one position on the field after the past three seasons in which he has basically been a full-time player without a full-time position. Oh, and third base just happens to be his worst position defensively in case you were wondering, posting a .949 fielding percentage in 206 career games at the hot corner.
Infield backups figure to be Josh Barfield, Andy Marte and Jamey Carroll, with Barfield trying to increase his chances for playing time this spring by playing some third and outfield. The club has also toyed with the idea of giving Garko some reps in left field, which should conjure up images of Pete ‘Iron Glove’ Incaviglia.
Grady Sizemore leads the outfield trio in center, with Shin-Soo Choo over in right and a possible platoon in left between Ben Francisco and David Dellucci. Sizemore recently opted out of the WBC where he was to play for Team USA as a groin injury will sideline him for probably the next week if not longer.
Choo posted some solid stats after being called up in late May. The South Korean, who was inked as an 18-year-old in 2000 and bounced between the minors and the Mariners and Indians from 2005-07, should be a fixture in right for the Indians for years to come now after hitting .309, driving in 66 runs and posting an OPS in the mid-.900s in his 94 games.
Dellucci’s age, and two consecutive years batting in the .230s, should give most of the left field time to Francisco. With the versatility that both DeRosa and Carroll bring, it’s possible the Indians only open with four true outfielders on the roster (Sizemore, Choo, Francisco and Dellucci).
PITCHING
While the Indians pitching staff had a very middle-of-the-road season, which you’d expect for a team with an 81-81 record, left-hander Cliff Lee had a dream season in 2008. After looking like he was on his way to the scrap heap in the middle of 2007 as injuries and utter ineffectiveness eventually pushed him to Triple-A Buffalo to regroup. And regroup he did to the tune of a Cy Young season in which he went 22-3 (Cleveland was 24-7 in his 31 starts) and topped the AL with a 2.54 ERA.
The odds of Lee repeating such a season are long; all it takes is for one ground ball out from last season turning into a seeing-eye single each game this season to go from 22-3, 2.54, to 16-12, 3.45. And that is why Carmona’s return to form this season is very critical to the Indians’ chances.
After a brilliant showing in 2007, a hip injury limited Carmona last season to just 22 starts, roughly a third of the season, and he was never in control as his walks increased from one ever 3.5 innings in ’07 to a free pass ever 1.7 innings last season. So far he appears healthy this spring, and his return to something at least closer to 2007 form would be huge.
Believe it or not, there has been a Carl Pavano sighting and it’s not at the scene of a car wreck or in the trainer’s room. After stealing about $40 million to make 26 starts for the Yankees from 2005-08, Pavano signed for $1.5 million to pitch in Cleveland this summer. Now 33, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Pavano go out and have a decent season, say something along the lines of 14-10, 3.90, and turn that into another 3-year, 8-figure contract for 2010.
Anthony Reyes is also set for the Tribe’s pitching plans in 2009, and assuming the elbow trouble that shut him down late in 2008 has gone away Reyes should be fine in the No. 4 or No. 5 slot of the pitching order.
The final starter coming out of the gate is going to be decided by a battle of lefties this spring. Aaron Laffey and Scott Lewis, who opened eyes at the end of the season last year, are the two most likely candidates to emerge with the job over Jeremy Sowers, who has some trade value, and Zach Jackson. If the spring stats are close, look for Laffey to get the nod over Lewis since the Indians still have options on Lewis.
The one big change to the staff this winter came down in the pen with the signing of Kerry Wood to assume the closer’s job. Off an All-Star season for the Cubs in which he posted the first 34 saves of his career, the right-hander will be brought along with care this spring that started with the oft-injured pitcher experiencing some minor back pain. Assuming he’s healthy, a big assumption with Wood, it should have a trickle down effect on a pen that never had a go-to closer In 2008.
Jensen Lewis, who was at the top of Cleveland’s chart last year with 13 saves, and Rafael Perez figure to be the primary setup arms in front of Wood this time. Rafael Betancourt, Masahide Kobayashi and Joe Smith should get the ‘middle relief’ chores, with one of the southpaws that miss out on a starting job landing the long relief role.
SCHEDULE
Cleveland will spend most of the first two weeks of the season on the road with stops at the Rangers, Royals and Yankees on the itinerary. They also have two series on Boston compared to getting the Red Sox just once at The Jake, er Progressive Field. Other than that, it’s a pretty fair schedule.
Over the course of five simulations, the Indians averaged 86.6 wins, topping out with 91 wins on one run and 79 for their bottom number. And finally, we do have some win totals to compare my program with as The Greek released theirs on Monday (Mar2) with the Tribe getting a break mark of 85½ (Over -120; Under +100). I like the Over.
The betting odds at 5Dimes have Cleveland +2000 to win the World Series (same as D-Backs and Tigers), +975 to win the AL and the favorite to win the AL Central at +205.
According to the calendar, the Cleveland Indians are in for a winning campaign in 2009 after a ho-hum, 81-win season in 2008. Can they stay healthy enough to follow through?
Let’s see here, 2009 is an odd-numbered year, so the Cleveland Indians must be getting ready for a winning season and a spot in the playoffs, right?
The roller coaster path the Indians have taken in recent years is pretty amazing. Beginning in 1999, Cleveland has posted winning records in all but one odd-numbered year (2003), and they’ve only had one winning record in the even years (2000). But is it anything more than a coincidence?
Not being much of one to believe in capping angles like, “5-1 on the second Tuesday of the month following a full moon,” I’m inclined to think of it as just a quirk with several other factors involved other than just being an even-odd year on the calendar.
Three of the factors that played into the team dropping off from 96 wins in 2007 to just 81 last year were Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner. Injuries played into all three of those Indians seeing marked declines in their numbers, and that had way more to do with Cleveland’s slide back into the AL Central than it just being 2008.
Still, I can’t help but think this will be another winning year for the Tribe in yet another odd-numbered year. So perhaps there is something to the how the stars are aligning with the 1-3-5-7-9 crowd, and misaligning for the 2-4-6-8 calendars. Since this is the Year of the Ox, let’s go on and bull our way through their roster and chances for 2009.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
If you’re a strong believer in the Pythagorean W-L formula, the Indians should have won more than 81 games in 2008 with the calculation putting them at 85-77 after they scored 805 times (sixth in the AL) and surrendered 761 runs (ninth in the AL). Personally, the Pythagorean number is just another statistical tool for me and not the ‘be all to end all’ that some purport it to be.
No question that if you put more runs on the board than you allow, you should win more often than you lose. But where Pythagorean falls short is that baseball isn’t played just until one team gets one run ahead; it does nothing to account for a pair of 3-2 setbacks sandwiched around a 13-2 win. According to Pythagorean, your team should be 2-1, not 1-2 with those numbers. But enough of that, especially since Pythagorean is a reactive statistical tool and not a proactive one.
The two most important pieces to the everyday lineup this year will be Martinez and Hafner, two of their disappointing pieces last season. The question lingers as to how much catching Martinez will be able to handle this season after hamstring and elbow trouble limited him to less than half a season in 2008, and just 55 games behind the plate. When he’s not catching, it means Kelly Shoppach will be donning the tools of ignorance. That’s not necessarily a bad thing with the former Baylor All-America catcher coming off a season in which he banged out 21.
But when Shoppach’s catching, it means Martinez is going to be at first, at DH, or on the bench. If he’s at first or DH, then either Ryan Garko or Hafner must sit. Ideally, the foursome could share the three positions and the Indians would be ok. But if it’s another down year for both Hafner and Martinez, then it leaves a huge hole in the order and in manager Eric Wedge’s plans.
Assuming Garko ends up with the majority of the 1B time, he should find the same trio surrounding him in the diamond with Asdrubal Cabrera at second, Jhonny Peralta at short and Mark DeRosa at third. The one change there from 2008 is DeRosa over at third, and it will be interesting to see if he can adjust to just playing one position on the field after the past three seasons in which he has basically been a full-time player without a full-time position. Oh, and third base just happens to be his worst position defensively in case you were wondering, posting a .949 fielding percentage in 206 career games at the hot corner.
Infield backups figure to be Josh Barfield, Andy Marte and Jamey Carroll, with Barfield trying to increase his chances for playing time this spring by playing some third and outfield. The club has also toyed with the idea of giving Garko some reps in left field, which should conjure up images of Pete ‘Iron Glove’ Incaviglia.
Grady Sizemore leads the outfield trio in center, with Shin-Soo Choo over in right and a possible platoon in left between Ben Francisco and David Dellucci. Sizemore recently opted out of the WBC where he was to play for Team USA as a groin injury will sideline him for probably the next week if not longer.
Choo posted some solid stats after being called up in late May. The South Korean, who was inked as an 18-year-old in 2000 and bounced between the minors and the Mariners and Indians from 2005-07, should be a fixture in right for the Indians for years to come now after hitting .309, driving in 66 runs and posting an OPS in the mid-.900s in his 94 games.
Dellucci’s age, and two consecutive years batting in the .230s, should give most of the left field time to Francisco. With the versatility that both DeRosa and Carroll bring, it’s possible the Indians only open with four true outfielders on the roster (Sizemore, Choo, Francisco and Dellucci).
PITCHING
While the Indians pitching staff had a very middle-of-the-road season, which you’d expect for a team with an 81-81 record, left-hander Cliff Lee had a dream season in 2008. After looking like he was on his way to the scrap heap in the middle of 2007 as injuries and utter ineffectiveness eventually pushed him to Triple-A Buffalo to regroup. And regroup he did to the tune of a Cy Young season in which he went 22-3 (Cleveland was 24-7 in his 31 starts) and topped the AL with a 2.54 ERA.
The odds of Lee repeating such a season are long; all it takes is for one ground ball out from last season turning into a seeing-eye single each game this season to go from 22-3, 2.54, to 16-12, 3.45. And that is why Carmona’s return to form this season is very critical to the Indians’ chances.
After a brilliant showing in 2007, a hip injury limited Carmona last season to just 22 starts, roughly a third of the season, and he was never in control as his walks increased from one ever 3.5 innings in ’07 to a free pass ever 1.7 innings last season. So far he appears healthy this spring, and his return to something at least closer to 2007 form would be huge.
Believe it or not, there has been a Carl Pavano sighting and it’s not at the scene of a car wreck or in the trainer’s room. After stealing about $40 million to make 26 starts for the Yankees from 2005-08, Pavano signed for $1.5 million to pitch in Cleveland this summer. Now 33, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Pavano go out and have a decent season, say something along the lines of 14-10, 3.90, and turn that into another 3-year, 8-figure contract for 2010.
Anthony Reyes is also set for the Tribe’s pitching plans in 2009, and assuming the elbow trouble that shut him down late in 2008 has gone away Reyes should be fine in the No. 4 or No. 5 slot of the pitching order.
The final starter coming out of the gate is going to be decided by a battle of lefties this spring. Aaron Laffey and Scott Lewis, who opened eyes at the end of the season last year, are the two most likely candidates to emerge with the job over Jeremy Sowers, who has some trade value, and Zach Jackson. If the spring stats are close, look for Laffey to get the nod over Lewis since the Indians still have options on Lewis.
The one big change to the staff this winter came down in the pen with the signing of Kerry Wood to assume the closer’s job. Off an All-Star season for the Cubs in which he posted the first 34 saves of his career, the right-hander will be brought along with care this spring that started with the oft-injured pitcher experiencing some minor back pain. Assuming he’s healthy, a big assumption with Wood, it should have a trickle down effect on a pen that never had a go-to closer In 2008.
Jensen Lewis, who was at the top of Cleveland’s chart last year with 13 saves, and Rafael Perez figure to be the primary setup arms in front of Wood this time. Rafael Betancourt, Masahide Kobayashi and Joe Smith should get the ‘middle relief’ chores, with one of the southpaws that miss out on a starting job landing the long relief role.
SCHEDULE
Cleveland will spend most of the first two weeks of the season on the road with stops at the Rangers, Royals and Yankees on the itinerary. They also have two series on Boston compared to getting the Red Sox just once at The Jake, er Progressive Field. Other than that, it’s a pretty fair schedule.
- 25-27 (Home-Away) through May; 66-64 through August
- 10 of first 13 games on the road
- 3-6 (Home-Away) vs. Red Sox, 7-3 vs. Mariners, 6-3 vs Rangers
Over the course of five simulations, the Indians averaged 86.6 wins, topping out with 91 wins on one run and 79 for their bottom number. And finally, we do have some win totals to compare my program with as The Greek released theirs on Monday (Mar2) with the Tribe getting a break mark of 85½ (Over -120; Under +100). I like the Over.
The betting odds at 5Dimes have Cleveland +2000 to win the World Series (same as D-Backs and Tigers), +975 to win the AL and the favorite to win the AL Central at +205.
True Lion Sports, I am not worthy.