2009 MLB Simulations & Projections

[Willie Bee]

Well it's that time of year for me to run my simulations for the upcoming season. Sucks that so many top-line free agents are still in limbo, and that will no doubt have ot be taken into account later this month once they do get signed.

Anyway, just wondering who you think are the most important players to their teams as rosters stand right now? For instance, there's no doubt that Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee are going to be crucial to the Astros' season. But for my money, it's the rotation behind Roy O that will make or break 'em, pitchers like Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe and Mike Hampton.

Which player(s) do you rank as the most critical to a team's success in 2009?

[Bread]

Tigers - Curtis Granderson

Rays - Evan Longoria

Marlins - Hanley Ramirez

Indians - Cliff Lee

Spankees - Joba Chamberlain's giant melon

[pavyracer]

Braves - Jeff Francoeur

[ryanXL977]

are you serious pavy?
braves with or without frenchie are gonna win what? 80-83?

indians: hafner

[MonkeyF0cker]

I agree, Willie, with your assessment of the Astros. I think Hampton is a huge question mark in that rotation. So I guess he would have to be the guy in Houston that could be the cornerstone of how much success they have this year. In the same breath, I have a hard time believing that Berkman will be repeating the season he had last year. It would be difficult for any player to accomplish, especially given his age. There seem to be multiple question marks on each team. I don't think it comes down to a star player on any team. I think the utility players are the bigger components in baseball...

[Willie Bee]

I actually agree with pavy on Francoeur and the Braves, plus Kotchman.

Hafner will be critical to the Tribe, but my biggest question is how much Martinez is or isn't going to catch. If he can't catch much at all, then it means Shoppach in the order in place of either Hafner or Garko.

My picks for Arizona are the combination of Qualls and Rauch down in the pen.

[Willie Bee]

Monkey, you know Berkman had that really incredible May last year then sort of came back down to the norm in June before tanking in July (homerless, average down 20 points or more). I could see him repeating the .312, 28-30 HR, 100+ RBI.

[fiveteamer]

Willie Bee's simulator

[Willie Bee]

LOL 5T!

As I've said in the past, the sim program is far from perfect, but it is a little bit more scientific than that. Then again...maybe I should try it and see which one is more accurate.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Monkey, you know Berkman had that really incredible May last year then sort of came back down to the norm in June before tanking in July (homerless, average down 20 points or more). I could see him repeating the .312, 28-30 HR, 100+ RBI.

Yeah, that seems reasonable. He just seemed to be Johnny-on-the-spot so many times last season, arguably the biggest clutch hitter last season.

[Bread]

LOL @ that simulator!!! Unreal.

[Willie Bee]

Yeah, that seems reasonable. He just seemed to be Johnny-on-the-spot so many times last season, arguably the biggest clutch hitter last season.

It's been so nice to see him play on four different levels: High school, college, minors and majors. When I saw him at Rice U. years ago, you could tell he was going to be a solid hitter, but I never imagined he would become as skilled defensively as he has. We used to joke that he would wind up a defensive liability at DH.

[MonkeyF0cker]

It's been so nice to see him play on four different levels: High school, college, minors and majors. When I saw him at Rice U. years ago, you could tell he was going to be a solid hitter, but I never imagined he would become as skilled defensively as he has. We used to joke that he would wind up a defensive liability at DH.

Haha. Yeah. That would be interesting to watch a player's development over that many years. You wouldn't know that by watching him now...

[Willie Bee]

I got to see a lot of eventual pro players living in and around Houston so many years. Cruz Jr was another I've seen play since his HS days. Greg Swindell I saw as a high schooler, though never actually saw him in the minors. Clemens I never saw at HS but saw his as a collegian and above. Chuck Knoblauch was one I saw play HS, college and then majors (no minors).

[MonkeyF0cker]

Wow. Nice, Willie. I've only played with a couple of (now) major leaguers on AAU and other all-area tournament teams, Eric Hinske and Matt Erickson. I'm at an age now where I would be able to watch that type of development. You can't really do that when you're playing...

[sallysnax8]

Athletics- Holliday

[reno cool]

man, Berkman always looked mean and focused. Then, once he got on that good run they started interviewing him, he became lax and cheery. He went down hill, and so did the Astros. I'm telling you Willie they jinxed him.

[smarmy]

cincinnati--Pete Rose

[Willie Bee]

man, Berkman always looked mean and focused. Then, once he got on that good run they started interviewing him, he became lax and cheery. He went down hill, and so did the Astros. I'm telling you Willie they jinxed him.

Except for occasionally being upset on called third strikes, he's generally a laid-back smart ass when interviewed. He ain't the sharpest tool in the shed, and he knows it. They asked him once what he majored in at Rice, and he said, "Staying eligible."

[Chi_archie]

looking forward to this

[Richkas]

Stlouis-Carpenter

[fiveteamer]

Blue Jays - Adam Lind

[seaborneq]

Hafner has not been dependable in nearly three years. He does not make or break the Indians anymore. Jim Leyland and Dontrelle Willis are the most important things in Comerica this year. I believe they will hit better, but if they can't pitch, good night.

[c-rok]

jays - health of marcum and mcgowan. one of the best 1-2-3 rotations in the league with them healthy plus doc, but if both are still hurt the rest of the rotation is a HUGE question mark.

they will also need better hitting this year if they want to contend. lind and wells both need huge years. Both I feel can explode and both are capable of 100 RBI's and over 20-25 HR's, with Wells being capable of 30+. Having the ability to do it and actually doing it are two different things though. Rios also better have a huge year, too good not to. He should be hitting around 20 HR's have around 30 steals, 90+ RBI's and 100+ R's, while hitting .300. Those are huge expectations of those three, but they really have what could be one of the best OF's in the entire league.

That infield though is atrocious, at least at the plate. Amazing defensively, but at the plate they are useless. If the big 3 OF's step up though the infield could be decent enough to make them a solid offense.

If everything goes well for Toronto and they don't get any big injuries, which I'm sure they will, they could contend for a playoff spot this year. Division will be tough this year though.

[fiveteamer]

Blue Jays - Adam Lind