Does anyone know or have a baseball system that works?
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How are plus units with a losing record? Money lines?Comment -
1. Use the pythagorean theorem and the log5 to calculate a value money line. For this, use runs per plate appearance for/against.
2. Compare that money line to the money line the books are offering. If the line the books are offering is at or better than the value line, then you have a lean.
3. Now handicap the bullpens. If the lean has a better bullpen for that night's game now you have a play.
To handicap a bullpen you have to see who has pitched lately, how many pitches they threw, are they rested, basically you want to know who is available for tonight's game and how good are they.
Another thing I do for MLB is "Who's hot / who's cold". I look at the runs per plate appearance for/against over the last 7 games and try to find a matchup where a team which is hitting the stuffing out of the ball is playing a team that is giving up lots of runs. This is also a good over play usually.Comment -
Do you handicap baseball on this site curious?Comment -
...great job..dont mind if i tail you then right...lolComment -
did you cap here last baseball season Curious? I don't rememberComment -
Hey Curious how about if i have a limited bankroll. I see you normally play alot of games in a day. I only have 1k bankroll for baseball. What do you suggest. What was your baseball record last year if you dont mind me asking?Comment -
I play very conservatively, so for me a max bet is 5% of bankroll, ONLY if the EV warrants that size bet. More typical is .5% or 1% of bank. For a $1000 bank that means your typical bet size would be $10. Every once in a while you would have $20, $30, $40, or $50 bets. If you did that you would be okay.
I'm not going to post my record because the idiots will swarm in here calling me a liar and talking shit. When baseball season starts up watch my picks for a while and see for yourself.Comment -
I play the games where I find value. Some days it might be 1 play, other days it might be 25 plays. There is no "best" number of plays per day. I play LOTS of totals at the end of the year. Tend to play a lot of dogs after the all star break, I find that big market teams get overvalued at the end of the year.Comment -
The Contrarian
I would question systems that demonstrate results where the unit total is a high number. These are people who make 20, 40, 50 or even 100 unit plays. A Kelly Wager, which would be considered the proper bet for a system, cannot be wagered on a 50 unit play. I consider these chaser systems.
How effective is the cappers selections. One game, to win or wager one unit. You can then effectively wager effectively within Kelly. Kelly will not permit you too wager no more than 4-5% of your bankroll at the high side. Moreover, a bankroll with 5,000 dollars would be a Kelly wager of no more than 250 dollars. So, a ten unit wager by these chaser guys would be a 2500 dollar play, resulting in a 50% bankroll play. You can't play that way.
In any play or investment for that matter, you always need to protect the downside. You can even apply that philosophy to life in general. The downside is the potential excruciating result that might occur. The upside is always easy to deal with.
My friend, be careful of the chasers. They seem not to have the longevity to stay in the game for the longtime. In a baseball metaphor, do you want to swing for the fences or get on base alot with a bunch of singles?
Your thoughts and opposing view is always welcomed.
The ContrarianComment -
Three words: value, Value, and VALUE.Comment
