MLB - Friday, 7/26/2013

Big Bear · 07-26-13, 08:59 AM

why the Angels?

Gradius · 07-26-13, 12:01 PM

Hey, LT, I wanted to know what goes into your methodology when handicapping baseball (as well as basketball and football). Are there specific stats you like to use, how much do you take into account for injuries, weather, etc. You don't have to tell me your secrets or proprietary information, I just want to know the general information and the mindset that you use to determine which way a game will go.

WIEDBO · 07-26-13, 12:10 PM

Lets go stl cards

LT Profits · 07-26-13, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

why the Angels?

Price is right for Colon to begin his regression. He is another guy outperforming his peripherals

LT Profits · 07-26-13, 12:58 PM

MLB 10-Pack

Originally posted by LT Profits

9 MLB Plays Friday

Rangers / Indians UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
Phillies +144 (Heritage)
Cardinals -1.5 +145 (Heritage)
Rockies -1.5 +145 (5 Dimes)
Brewers / Rockies UNDER 9 +105 (5 Dimes)
Angels +153 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Mariners OVER 7 +100 (5 Dimes)
Dodgers -1.5 +130 (Heritage)
Cubs +146 (Heritage)

YTD: 386-449-20, -30.74

Adding:

White Sox +108 (Heritage)

MLB Card Complete

TheMLBKing · 07-26-13, 12:59 PM

LT that doesn't even account for the other side at all. Backing Jerome Williams? If you wanna fade Colon then why not take an over of sorts and break with your usual "unders + dogs" formula?

LT Profits · 07-26-13, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by TheMLBKing

LT that doesn't even account for the other side at all. Backing Jerome Williams? If you wanna fade Colon then why not take an over of sorts and break with your usual "unders + dogs" formula?

Because there are no over of sorts at +153.

The value is there at that price, my models project the A's at 57-58%. I just gave one highlight in my last post, there are other reasons to like LA, especially when comparing the offenses.

hubbard689 · 07-26-13, 02:16 PM

smh LT, smfh

RavensFan2k3 · 07-26-13, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Because there are no over of sorts at +153.

So we arent in the business of winning anymore? Just in the business of trying to find the highest value possible? Why you not on Houston and Minnesota tonight?

TheMLBKing · 07-26-13, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

So we arent in the business of winning anymore? Just in the business of trying to find the highest value possible? Why you not on Houston and Minnesota tonight?

I like houston tonight actually. Dickey should never be -235 ever.

Big Bear · 07-26-13, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

So we arent in the business of winning anymore? Just in the business of trying to find the highest value possible? Why you not on Houston and Minnesota tonight?

thats a good point and not to be a dick to LT i just find it interesting to hear other peoples points of view.

While Colon may not throw another shut out Jerome Williams has been getting tatooed lately and Oakland is mighty tough at home.

Big Bear · 07-26-13, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by TheMLBKing

I like houston tonight actually. Dickey should never be -235 ever.

i agree with that. Mariners are overpriced tonight too... that being said i dont have the balls to take the Twins or Astros

italianbandit · 07-26-13, 04:23 PM

Nice to see you starting off well second half, I see the black coming, cheers. I hope your family is doing well.

hubbard689 · 07-26-13, 04:25 PM

HAHAHAHA "I see the black coming"!!! uhhhh don't know about that bud, would put some serious SBR pts against even being above -20 units come season end

LT Profits · 07-26-13, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

So we arent in the business of winning anymore? Just in the business of trying to find the highest value possible? Why you not on Houston and Minnesota tonight?

Highest price does not = value. Getting +153 on a 42% chance is value.

Big Bear · 07-26-13, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Highest price does not = value. Getting +153 on a 42% chance is value.

LT wtf ? r u kidding me? no wonder your down 35 units

you gotta start trying to find games to bet on that have more than 42% chance of winning.

if you think a bet has a 42% chance of winning just pass on that game.

wait until your really confident to pull the trigger

Gradius · 07-27-13, 01:32 AM

Getting a line at +153 when it should be around +138 (42%) is HUGE +EV. You won't have a +50% record, but you will win money in the long run, and that is the only thing that matters.

LT Profits · 07-27-13, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

LT wtf ? r u kidding me? no wonder your down 35 units

you gotta start trying to find games to bet on that have more than 42% chance of winning.

if you think a bet has a 42% chance of winning just pass on that game.

wait until your really confident to pull the trigger

You need to learn about advantage betting, venture over to the Think Tank once in a while (although even that is not as good as it used to be, so maybe search old threads, especially by Ganchrow). It is how I have approached betting most of my life, why do you think I bet so many underdogs? It is not because they have a better than 50% chance of winning, it is because the odds offered are better than what my models have. Speaking of which, it looks like my models are going to shit, probably because Sabremetric stats are becoming more mainstream, so I may have a lot of work to do in the off-season. But that's another topic altogether.

GoBlue77 · 07-27-13, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

You need to learn about advantage betting, venture over to the Think Tank once in a while (although even that is not as good as it used to be, so maybe search old threads, especially by Ganchrow). It is how I have approached betting most of my life, why do you think I bet so many underdogs? It is not because they have a better than 50% chance of winning, it is because the odds offered are better than what my models have. Speaking of which, it looks like my models are going to shit, probably because Sabremetric stats are becoming more mainstream, so I may have a lot of work to do in the off-season. But that's another topic altogether.

you need to learn how to bet. period.

you value humpers are hilarious. keep searching out that value, the rest of us will search winners

LT Profits · 07-27-13, 07:46 AM

Originally posted by GoBlue77

you need to learn how to bet. period.

you value humpers are hilarious. keep searching out that value, the rest of us will search winners

Value is EVERYTHING in betting, it is physically impossible to win long-term if you continuously take bad numbers.

Big Bear · 07-27-13, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Value is EVERYTHING in betting, it is physically impossible to win long-term if you continuously take bad numbers.

LT we are just trying to help you. Its tough seeing a fellow sbr poster struggle so much. Keep doing the same thing and you will get the same results.

LT Profits · 07-27-13, 08:22 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

LT we are just trying to help you. Its tough seeing a fellow sbr poster struggle so much. Keep doing the same thing and you will get the same results.

Guys, I have been betting every day for longer than you guys have been alive. Both of you joined in 2011, so you weren't here when I had something like 16 winning seasons in my first 18 documented seasons at SBR. As I said, it is my models that are going in the crapper the last two years (except for MLB 2012), not my approach. I have a lot of work to do analyzing data, but implying that value means nothing in betting is like arguing that 1 + 1 does not equal 2.