MLB - Monday, 7/8/13

[LT Profits]

6 MLB Plays Monday

Tigers / Indians UNDER 8.5 +102 (5 Dimes)
Royals +130 (Bookmaker)
Marlins +145 (Heritage)
Padres -1.5 +170 (Heritage)
Rockies / Padres UNDER 7.5 -115 (5 Dimes)
Giants +102 (Heritage)

YTD: 323-379-17, -29.12

[Big Bear]

no pirates/ a's under?

or

mets/ giants under?

[Big Bear]

fading matt harvey against the worst offense in baseball?
in a pitchers park?

[LT Profits]

fading matt harvey against the worst offense in baseball?
in a pitchers park?

Fading Mets TEAM as a road favorite. Harvey is great but he is losing money this year because Mets are overvalued when he pitches.

[LT Profits]

no pirates/ a's under?

Can;t do it, two grossly overachieving pitchers (especially Locke). I am glad both are in All-Star Game too (along with Corbin), those are probably the three poster children for regression this year, and fact that they are All-Stars should make them more overvalued.

[Big Bear]

Can;t do it, two grossly overachieving pitchers (especially Locke). I am glad both are in All-Star Game too (along with Corbin), those are probably the three poster children for regression this year, and fact that they are All-Stars should make them more overvalued.

did you see Corbin yesterday? he has been a cash cow for me this year....
i dont know how anybody could have watched him last year and not be impressed

[ThingsFallApart]

did you see Corbin yesterday? he has been a cash cow for me this year....
i dont know how anybody could have watched him last year and not be impressed

I think you're both right here. LT knows his stuff and if you've been a big baseball guy since at least the turn of the millenium, you've seen this story over and over. Go look at all star pitchers the past 10 years and you'll see a ton of guys who only kept it up til the all star break and a few that lasted a whole season, but a ton of guys were shit either the second half or the next year, and never recovered.

At the same time, betting against a guy just "hoping" for him to come back to earth is retarded. What if it doesnt come til mid August, why continue to bet against a guy like Corbin before he actually regresses? Maybe you'll get lucky on "the one" but why wouldnt you just wait until his bad start then start fading him instead of jumping the gun. Any value you get from fading him will be wiped out from the times you faded him before his supposed regression.

Not to be a ahole in your own thread here, but it seems you're being too cute with your picks and your record reflects this.

[No coincidences]

Not to be a ahole in your own thread here, but it seems you're being too cute with your picks and your record reflects this.

I've searched everywhere for a thread showing the picks/record of our resident know-it-all expert TFA, but can't find them anywhere. He's great at assessing the shortcomings of other people's posts/threads, but offers nothing of substance himself -- just egotistical analysis and opinions that no one really cares about (but he'll offer them anyway).

Let me know where I can find your plays. I'm intrigued. Thanks.

[LT Profits]

MLB 11-Pack

6 MLB Plays Monday

Tigers / Indians UNDER 8.5 +102 (5 Dimes)
Royals +130 (Bookmaker)
Marlins +145 (Heritage)
Padres -1.5 +170 (Heritage)
Rockies / Padres UNDER 7.5 -115 (5 Dimes)
Giants +102 (Heritage)

YTD: 323-379-17, -29.12

Adding:

Nationals -117 (DSI)
Indians +145 (Heritage)
Braves / Marlins UNDER 8 -115 (5 Dimes)
Brewers +117 (Bookmaker)
Mariners -115 (Heritage)


MLB Card Complete

[ThingsFallApart]

I've searched everywhere for a thread showing the picks/record of our resident know-it-all expert TFA, but can't find them anywhere. He's great at assessing the shortcomings of other people's posts/threads, but offers nothing of substance himself -- just egotistical analysis and opinions that no one really cares about (but he'll offer them anyway).

Let me know where I can find your plays. I'm intrigued. Thanks.

Your posts are diving deeper into a pathetic mess. I've complimented and encouraged LT before. I'm not coming in AFTER the plays and bashing and I offered a well-balanced reasoning for disagree with his picks. If courteous and substantiated disagreement isn't allowed on a capping forum then I must have missed the rules.

Anyway, instead of bickering with you in every thread you're going on ignore immediately as your only value before was making me feel better about capping and myself but now you're just an annoying, pathetic loser. Go ahead and reply and try to defend what everyone else notices, you'll be on ignore so IDGAF.

[LT Profits]

At the same time, betting against a guy just "hoping" for him to come back to earth is retarded. What if it doesnt come til mid August, why continue to bet against a guy like Corbin before he actually regresses? Maybe you'll get lucky on "the one" but why wouldnt you just wait until his bad start then start fading him instead of jumping the gun. Any value you get from fading him will be wiped out from the times you faded him before his supposed regression.

Not to be a ahole in your own thread here, but it seems you're being too cute with your picks and your record reflects this.

It seems we are talking about two different things. You are describing the "due" theory which says to bet against a pitcher for the sole reason that he is due for a bad game, which is indeed retarded. I am talking about anticipated regression based on peripheral stats that already exist, so it is not that I am "hoping" for these guys to get back to earth, I am saying it is inevitable that they will based on their peripherals. And that being the case, yes it is better to be ahead of the curve and catch the regression at the beginning rather than wait until the regression has begun and the value has been sucked out of fading them. Also, I don't remember betting against either Corbin or Locke (or even Colon) recently, so it is not as if I have faded them every start. And don't worry about my record, it is heading in the right direction even after a bad Sunday (nearly +16 last three weeks). Let's see where I finish before judging that.

[LT Profits]

I've complimented and encouraged LT before. I'm not coming in AFTER the plays and bashing and I offered a well-balanced reasoning for disagree with his picks. If courteous and substantiated disagreement isn't allowed on a capping forum then I must have missed the rules.

Yes I know, no problems there.

[RiseUp2013]

Solid plays....GL

[ThingsFallApart]

It seems we are talking about two different things. You are describing the "due" theory which says to bet against a pitcher for the sole reason that he is due for a bad game, which is indeed retarded. I am talking about anticipated regression based on peripheral stats that already exist, so it is not that I am "hoping" for these guys to get back to earth, I am saying it is inevitable that they will based on their peripherals. And that being the case, yes it is better to be ahead of the curve and catch the regression at the beginning rather than wait until the regression has begun and the value has been sucked out of fading them. Also, I don't remember betting against either Corbin or Locke (or even Colon) recently, so it is not as if I have faded them every start. And don't worry about my record, it is heading in the right direction even after a bad Sunday (nearly +16 last three weeks). Let's see where I finish before judging that.

LT, like I said above, you know you're stuff. I did conflate your point with the "due" theory that a few sharps will post from time to time. I wasn't really 100% referring to your point more posting about betting against the surprise pitcher on the prospect of regression (or being due to regress).
Otherwise good luck. I've only been playing a handful each day as finding angles has been especially difficult to turn anything consistent money-wise.

[No coincidences]

Your posts are diving deeper into a pathetic mess. I've complimented and encouraged LT before. I'm not coming in AFTER the plays and bashing and I offered a well-balanced reasoning for disagree with his picks. If courteous and substantiated disagreement isn't allowed on a capping forum then I must have missed the rules.

Anyway, instead of bickering with you in every thread you're going on ignore immediately as your only value before was making me feel better about capping and myself but now you're just an annoying, pathetic loser. Go ahead and reply and try to defend what everyone else notices, you'll be on ignore so IDGAF.

I'm up over 70 units for the year in all sports and it makes you feel better about yourself to be against my picks? No wonder you're so miserable.

Again, LT didn't ask for your psychobabble and I'm sure he couldn't care less what you think, given he has a track record and thread for all of his plays here and you don't. Man up and make one yourself. It's funny how often I say that to people like you here, yet the minute you are challenged, you dance around the idea and never actually deliver -- just like so many others. Pathetic that you spend your time on a board like this without offering anything other than stupid posts and no picks -- yet again, typical SBR.

[Big Bear]

I'm up over 70 units for the year in all sports and it makes you feel better about yourself to be against my picks? No wonder you're so miserable.

Again, LT didn't ask for your psychobabble and I'm sure he couldn't care less what you think, given he has a track record and thread for all of his plays here and you don't. Man up and make one yourself. It's funny how often I say that to people like you here, yet the minute you are challenged, you dance around the idea and never actually deliver -- just like so many others. Pathetic that you spend your time on a board like this without offering anything other than stupid posts and no picks -- yet again, typical SBR.

coiner ... 70 units =$ 1,400 US Dollars right?

[ThingsFallApart]

Edit: too much, not going to continue

[A.M.S.]

Bol2ya