Over/Under Chase Thread, Starting 6-28-2013

[kcava]

So my last chase system that I started posting ended up tanking within the first few days that I started posting my plays. We'll see if I had the same luck this time around with a system I've been using since the beginning of the season.

Season Record: 36-1, +22.45 Units

System Parameters: Once a team hits 5 consecutive over / unders, I chase the opposite result for 4 games.

It's a pretty conservative system to some of the others that I have seen that begin the chase after only 3. Because of the strict parameters, there are not plays every day but I will be sure to update this thread when a team becomes a play.

#1 Philadelphia Phillies
UNDER, 105 to win 100

[kcava]

As usual, off to a fantastic start when I start posting the forum plays... :P

Thread Record: 0-0
Game 1: 0-1 (#2 Pending)
Game 2: 0-0 (#1 Pending)
Game 3: 0-0
Game 4: 0-0

#1 Philadelphia Phillies, Under 4 Game Chase
105 to win 100
210 to win 205

#2 Chicago Cubs, Under 4 Game Chase
100 to win 100

Teams On Deck: Milwaukee Brewers (4 straight overs) and San Diego Padres (4 straight overs)

[kcava]

Apologies for not recording this afternoon. Updated.

Thread Record: 1-0 (+1.00 Unit)
Game 1: 0-2 (#3, #4 Pending)
Game 2: 0-2
Game 3: 1-0 (#2 Pending)
Game 4: 0-0

#1 Philadelphia Phillies, Under 4 Game Chase - WIN

#2 Chicago Cubs, Under 4 Game Chase
100 to win 100 (L)
200 to win 200 (L)
Play 7/2/2013 to win 400 (Pending)

#3 Colorado Rockies, Over 4 Game Chase
Begins 7/2/2013

#4 San Diego Padres, Under 4 Game Chase
115 to win 100

[c0mmand0r]

i really like this thread.
do you made a backtest for the last years?

maybe some team filter for power ranking, best/worst starting and relief pitching?

[c0mmand0r]

how about this?

bettin the under only if scheduled pitcher starts,
over also if scheduled starting isnt starting.

i am using Bet365 and i can choose between these options.

[kcava]

i really like this thread.
do you made a backtest for the last years?

maybe some team filter for power ranking, best/worst starting and relief pitching?

I have not back-tested. Hoping to do that once graduate school gives me a break. Just something I've been following this year.

I have updated the main post for those following (Post #2)

[c0mmand0r]

i know this situation well :-P
do you notice these types of series also at another webpage or so?
do you keep the stats everyday alive?

padres under - easy going
rockies and cubs next!

[c0mmand0r]

are you still alive?

dont know why bookies set dodgers/rockies total line so high again :-/

let's go system, let's go

[kcava]

Thread Record: 2-0 (+2.00 Units)
Game 1: 1-2
Game 2: 0-2 (#3 Pending)
Game 3: 1-1
Game 4: 0-0 (#2 Pending)

#1 Philadelphia Phillies, Under 4 Game Chase - WIN

#2 Chicago Cubs, Under 4 Game Chase
100 to win 100 (L)
200 to win 200 (L)
460 to win 400 (L)
825 to win 760 (Play Today)

#3 Colorado Rockies, Over 4 Game Chase
100 to win 100 (L)
200 to win 200 (Play Today)

#4 San Diego Padres, Under 4 Game Chase - WIN

On Deck, Seattle Mariners have a 4 game over streak

[gambler705]

Is this game totals or team totals?

[kcava]

Is this game totals or team totals?

Game Totals

[kcava]

Thread Record: 4-0 (+4.00 Units)
Game 1: 1-2
Game 2: 1-2
Game 3: 1-1
Game 4: 1-0

#1 Philadelphia Phillies, Under 4 Game Chase - WIN
#2 Chicago Cubs, Under 4 Game Chase - WIN
#3 Colorado Rockies, Over 4 Game Chase - WIN
#4 San Diego Padres, Under 4 Game Chase - WIN

There will be NO plays tomorrow.

On deck - Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox have 4 game under streaks.

[c0mmand0r]

ching ching

can't waint for the next one.
in between time i will start chasing the nationals. they lost 2 in a row at home.

2013 they got lost 2 times 3 games in a row - 2 sweeps
2012 they got lost 2 times 3 games in a row - 1 sweep
2011 they got lost 3 times 3 games in a row - 1 sweep
2010 they got lost 3 times 3 games in a row - 3 sweeps
---------------------------------------------------------------
all sweeps came up by (above .500) playoff teams

maybe also an factor: washington at home at independence day

[Aye J Mac]

Thread Record: 4-0 (+4.00 Units)
Game 1: 1-2
Game 2: 1-2
Game 3: 1-1
Game 4: 1-0

#1 Philadelphia Phillies, Under 4 Game Chase - WIN
#2 Chicago Cubs, Under 4 Game Chase - WIN
#3 Colorado Rockies, Over 4 Game Chase - WIN
#4 San Diego Padres, Under 4 Game Chase - WIN

There will be NO plays tomorrow.

On deck - Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox have 4 game under streaks.

phily went over 6-5 Pitts on July 3. So your 3-1

[c0mmand0r]

phily went over 6-5 Pitts on July 3. So your 3-1

please read it again

this was the first chasing series, which began at june 28th.
the under series won at bet #3, an 6-1 game with a total line of 8.5
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/pastresults/2013/team2958.html

[Yazworm91]

Giants have been under the last 5 games. Over would have probably hit if the game didnt get called in the 6th inning two nights ago.

[c0mmand0r]

the giants played 4 times in row under the total.
in game 5, they hit the over by a hairbreadth ==> no system play.
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/pastresults/2013/team2962.html

[c0mmand0r]

a little overview for the near future

system bet#1 on deck for the following teams:
- boston red sox - 1 more under necessary - (TOMORROW @ angels - bet the over)
- chicago white sox - 1 more under necessary - (TOMORROW @ rays - bet the over)
- new york mets - 1 more over necessary - (TOMORROW @ brewers - bet the under)

- baltimore orioles - 2 more under necessary
- kansas City royals - 2 more over necessary
- arizona diamondbacks - 2 more over necessary
- san diego padres - 2 more under necessary


no upcoming "over versus under matchups" of these teams.


i still think it's clever to book it like this:
- under only, if scheduled pitcher start
- over also, if scheduled starting isnt starting (action bet)

[c0mmand0r]

in the upcoming weeks, i will maybe do some system backtests, if got some more free time.

[doublecreek]

Just checking but the system says bet after the 5 straight game of under/over. So why are we posting betting after 4 straight over/under totals.

[c0mmand0r]

damn
sorry, my fault.
i will correct the posts immediately.

edit: i corrected the posts before.

[Yazworm91]

the giants played 4 times in row under the total.
in game 5, they hit the over by a hairbreadth ==> no system play.
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/pastresults/2013/team2962.html

That game was called in the 6th so the total was cancelled. Since it was cancelled would it disqualify them?

[kcava]

That game was called in the 6th so the total was cancelled. Since it was cancelled would it disqualify them?

The SFG were on a 4 game under streak (we need 5 to activate the chase). The game was called when it was 8-1 so it would have been an "over". Since we weren't officially in the chase, and therefore had no bet on it, I simply added it as an "Over" and reset.

[c0mmand0r]

july 5th
#1 red sox @ angels - over 9
#1 white sox @ rays - over 8,5
#1 mets @ brewers - under 9

- baltimore orioles - 1 more under necessary
- kansas City royals - 1 more over necessary
- arizona diamondbacks - 1 more over necessary
- san diego padres - 1 more under necessary


no upcoming "over versus under matchups" of these teams.


i still think it's clever to book it like this:
- under only, if scheduled pitcher start
- over also, if scheduled starting isnt starting (action bet)

[kcava]

july 5th
#1 red sox @ angels - over 9
#1 white sox @ rays - over 8,5
#1 mets @ brewers - under 9

Stop hijacking my thread. :P

But yes, these three chases will begin tomorrow.

[c0mmand0r]

hijacking
i just wanna help a bit and set the card for tomorrow, because i will not have much time until sunday.
waking up and making an booking failure would be fatal.

[kcava]

Thread Record: 4-0 (+4.00 Units)
Game 1: 1-2 (#5, #6, #7 Pending)
Game 2: 1-2
Game 3: 1-1
Game 4: 1-0

#5 Boston Red Sox - 4 Game Over Chase
1.00 to win 1.00

#6 Chicago White Sox - 4 Game Over Chase
1.00 to win 1.00

#7 New York Mets - 4 Game Under Chase
1.10 to win 1.00

[Aye J Mac]

Thread Record: 4-0 (+4.00 Units)
Game 1: 1-2 (#5, #6, #7 Pending)
Game 2: 1-2
Game 3: 1-1
Game 4: 1-0

#5 Boston Red Sox - 4 Game Over Chase
1.00 to win 1.00

#6 Chicago White Sox - 4 Game Over Chase
1.00 to win 1.00

#7 New York Mets - 4 Game Under Chase
1.10 to win 1.00

So do u play redsox over, white sox over,mets under tommorrow??? I'm confused

[kcava]

So do u play redsox over, white sox over,mets under tommorrow??? I'm confused

[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]

That's correct. Which part is confusing so I can clarify in post 1?

[c0mmand0r]

yesterday, july 5th
series #5, game 1: red sox @ angels - over 9
series #6, game 1: white sox @ rays - over 8,5
series #7, game 1: mets @ brewers - under 9

today, july 6th
series #5, game 2: red sox @ angels - over 9 (i personally play over 8,5 to avoid a possible push)
series #7, game 2: mets @ brewers - under 8,5
series #8, game 1: orioles @ yankees - over 9

[kcava]

Thread Record: 5-0 (+5.00 Units)
Game 1: 2-4 (#8 Pending)
Game 2: 1-2 (#5, #7 Pending)
Game 3: 1-1
Game 4: 1-0

#5 Boston Red Sox - 4 Game Over Chase
1.00 to win 1.00 (L)
2.16 to win 2.00

#6 Chicago White Sox - 4 Game Over Chase

#7 New York Mets - 4 Game Under Chase
1.10 to win 1.00 (L)
2.10 to win 2.10

#8 Baltimore Orioles - 4 Game Over Chase
1.10 to win 1.00

[kcava]

#7 NY Mets - 4 Game Under Chase
4.20 to win 4.20

#8 Baltimore - 4 Game Over Chase
1.15 to win 1.00

[kcava]

Thread Record: 7-0 (+7.00 Units)
Game 1: 2-5
Game 2: 3-2 (#8 Pending)
Game 3: 1-1
Game 4: 1-0

#8 Baltimore - 4 Game Over Chase
1.15 to win 1.00 (L)

[kcava]

I apologize for not updating this. I am defending my master's thesis in a few days and have been focused on that.

That said, if you were following along - you were 8-0. I'll pick this back up again in a week or so.

[c0mmand0r]

july 11th

no plays today



tomorrow:

#9 pirates over
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/pastresults/2013/team2971.html

maybe some more, but the brewers and also the reds has to play 1 more under today