The randomness of baseball

No coincidences · 06-19-13, 05:06 PM

Makes sense for Redmond to use Dunn in that situation, though. After all, he's only allowed 9 ER and 15 hits with 8 BB in 8 IP vs. Arizona in his career.

Way to reward your starter, Redmond.

No coincidences · 06-19-13, 05:25 PM

And then Heath Bell of all people gets out of a 1st and 2nd, no out situation.

Go figure.

GoldGlove · 06-19-13, 05:28 PM

I'm doing fairly well betting on NFL, NBA, UFC and maybe tennis. But I can't understand how can you bet on baseball, I mean there's no pattern, solid pitchers can screw it up anytime, the best teams barely win 55% of their games, meaning they lose every other day. It's unreal. Massive props to those that REALLY make profits with the MLB, i can't and i'm pretty sure never will.

rawzay · 06-19-13, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by GoldGlove

I'm doing fairly well betting on NFL, NBA, UFC and maybe tennis. But I can't understand how can you bet on baseball, I mean there's no pattern, solid pitchers can screw it up anytime, the best teams barely win 55% of their games, meaning they lose every other day. It's unreal. Massive props to those that REALLY make profits with the MLB, i can't and i'm pretty sure never will.

Baseball is a bettors dream. The randomness of it prevents you from betting big on any one game or parlay but it's streaky enough that you can pick up on patterns and give yourself a good chance of winning. 2-4 team Parlays on baseball games can be very effective because of the reduced juice compared to other sports.

GoldGlove · 06-19-13, 05:39 PM

I know and I understand where you're coming from, but it's just I can't find those 2-4 teams to bet them on a parlay. A -130 fav in baseball is nothing, they can lose extremly easy. Only the -200 favs are worth considering (for me) but the juice is just too much. I'm mostly betting on +100 -> +140 dogs and overs when the wind is blowin to the outside and both pitchers have few k's/9, high xfips and a lot of walks/9inn. I don't keep a record but i'm safe to say i'm losing money this season, not much, around 8-9u, but still.

ses_d · 06-19-13, 05:44 PM

that's why those who go full retard and bet 1k+ on games deserve to go in the hole easy

rawzay · 06-19-13, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by GoldGlove

I know and I understand where you're coming from, but it's just I can't find those 2-4 teams to bet them on a parlay. A -130 fav in baseball is nothing, they can lose extremly easy. Only the -200 favs are worth considering (for me) but the juice is just too much. I'm mostly betting on +100 -> +140 dogs and overs when the wind is blowin to the outside and both pitchers have few k's/9, high xfips and a lot of walks/9inn. I don't keep a record but i'm safe to say i'm losing money this season, not much, around 8-9u, but still.

I personally would never bet on a -200 favorite in a baseball game. If you like them that much take a shot at the run line or buy it down to -1 to reduce the juice so even if they only win by 1 run than its only a push and you don't lose anything. Take a look at the Braves ML and under tonight. It should hit.

GoldGlove · 06-19-13, 05:52 PM

Yep, it should, but I just remember what the Braves did yesterday lol.

Can'wait for the football season to start though!

ItsMeMrMattE · 06-19-13, 06:03 PM

ya. i was feeling so good about my MIA bet at +165 when i woke up this morning and saw the line. then like you said cahill out in the first, made me feel even better. all for nothing tho. this huge line swings have had me stumped pretty much all season. thinking about buying back my HOU (+100) bet i have, with TEX (+105). this one is starting to feel just like MIA. liked it last night, loved it this morning, and it still ends up going the other way.

YouHave2outs · 06-19-13, 06:32 PM

so if you bet something at +165 and it closes at +125, you're supposed to have a significantly greater than 50% chance of winning your bet? It seems like that's what you're insinuating in this case.

OP is complete and utter dog s hit. I award you zero points and may God have mercy on your soul.

ItsMeMrMattE · 06-19-13, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by YouHave2outs

so if you bet something at +165 and it closes at +125, you're supposed to have a significantly greater than 50% chance of winning your bet? It seems like that's what you're insinuating in this case.

OP is complete and utter dog s hit. I award you zero points and may God have mercy on your soul.

how the actual game plays out has nothing to do with line movement. the line is a financial market designed to draw in even action. when you get 40 cents more on every dollar you bet because you where earlier than most to the market it means the line was not at its best efficiency and the money had to correct it. this does not change the future. the game will still go like its going to go whether a line exists or not. what no coin is saying is that there can sometimes be strong factors that trend towards an outcome, the line movement and starter out in first inning, but they still do not predict the outcome. therefore being excruciatingly and inexplainably cruel sometimes.