San Diego Padres v. Col. Rockies 'Over' 9.5

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  • Jago2008
    SBR MVP
    • 05-18-11
    • 3047

    #1
    San Diego Padres v. Col. Rockies 'Over' 9.5
    I love these divisional matchups in Coors field, these teams play each other regularly and know how to approach each pitcher.

    Jhoulys Chacin (3-3, 4.26 ERA) is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA in his last six outings and 0-2 with a 7.66 ERA in his last four in the Mile High City, he started the year well and his first two decisions were against the Padres, but since hurting his back and going on the DL he has struggled considerably with command.

    Andrew Cashner is budding young pitcher for the Padres but also gives up the long ball - particularly to Colorado, who have swept the Padres so far this year, but I expect to see some better play from the Padres this series (The Padres started the season 2-10, Colorado series was included in that). Colorado batters have hit Cashner well including: Cuddyer (HR), Fowler, Rosario, CarGo, and Tulowitzki (allbeit a small sample size - 10ABs or less). Furthermore Colorado has been seeing the ball well - averaging over 6 runs per game.

    Much more analysis, but I don't think many really care what other split stats I've evaluated.

    -I'm also seeing some late buy-orders on the Padres ML aswell, but I'm not here to pick sides.

    -I have this game more around the key number of '11' so we are getting a run of value @ 9.5.

    -I added a half point @ 'over' 10 @ +114 5dimes for good measure aswell.

    GL with your bets.
  • 2daBank
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-26-09
    • 88966

    #2
    kinda like it as well. kinda like rox with the price drop too, hell if i know
    Comment
    • Jago2008
      SBR MVP
      • 05-18-11
      • 3047

      #3
      Originally posted by 2daBank
      kinda like it as well. kinda like rox with the price drop too, hell if i know
      Thanks Bank, I actually am seeing a lot of wise-guy action on the Padres. But I don't like to bet against streaks in the first game of the series, especially since the Rockies have OWNED the Padres so far.

      I'll have much more total plays coming from around the league, I generally post a lot from the NL West, and AL West.
      Comment
      • 2daBank
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-26-09
        • 88966

        #4
        yea the money hitting pads what made me wanna take rox,,sharp money really dont scare me these days as all it been doing is creating value on the other side...i ended up passing as i really didnt love the card tonight..gl bro

        nl west ey? tell me if greinke is starting to be close to 100% cause he has been str8 ass since returning ad his velocity way down, hell it was his left collar bone so i keep thiking dude gonna be ok but starting to waiver (still wanna play him tonight, lol)..talk to me..
        Comment
        • No coincidences
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-18-10
          • 76300

          #5
          One of those games that should be 13-9 but will end up 3-2.
          Comment
          • Jago2008
            SBR MVP
            • 05-18-11
            • 3047

            #6
            Originally posted by 2daBank
            yea the money hitting pads what made me wanna take rox,,sharp money really dont scare me these days as all it been doing is creating value on the other side...i ended up passing as i really didnt love the card tonight..gl bro

            nl west ey? tell me if greinke is starting to be close to 100% cause he has been str8 ass since returning ad his velocity way down, hell it was his left collar bone so i keep thiking dude gonna be ok but starting to waiver (still wanna play him tonight, lol)..talk to me..
            Man several players in scoring position and nothing so far... frustrating, Chacin has the propensity to give up the "big inning" so hopefully that statistic will stay true in this game.

            As far as Greinke - yeah he has not been the same since coming off the DL early - 15 earned runs and posted an 11/7 K/BB ratio. I definitely feel ATL is the play in this first matchup, the total is low too, I think they are giving too much value to Hudson and Greinke in this matchup. Greinke has not been making many pitchers' pitches as I've watched.
            Comment
            • Jago2008
              SBR MVP
              • 05-18-11
              • 3047

              #7
              Originally posted by No coincidences
              One of those games that should be 13-9 but will end up 3-2.
              its looking like that so far no coin unfortunately, if this total doesn't go over, I might double up tomorrow. The Rockies look tired, and what started as promising first few innings with RISP nothing to show for. Bottom of the 3rd, I won't rule the total out just yet, but if we can have some HRs might jumpstart these offenses.
              Comment
              • 2daBank
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-26-09
                • 88966

                #8
                it lad or nothing for me,, prob pass but keep waiting for greinke to get right as just dont think left collar bone should effect his pitching all that much, so thinking it just more rust and he will get it back.. i dunno tho..
                Comment
                • stevenash
                  Moderator
                  • 01-17-11
                  • 65584

                  #9
                  I wish I saw this thread earlier.
                  Games with unusual high scoring the night before have a tendency to go way under the next day.
                  About low 60 percent of the time.
                  Case in point, last night's Boston / Texas game that wound up 3-2.
                  Comment
                  • Jago2008
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-18-11
                    • 3047

                    #10
                    Originally posted by 2daBank
                    it lad or nothing for me,, prob pass but keep waiting for greinke to get right as just dont think left collar bone should effect his pitching all that much, so thinking it just more rust and he will get it back.. i dunno tho..
                    really bro? Don't tell me you're on this Puig bandwagon - haha jk. Your Cardinals are dominating the Dbacks right now.

                    I don't know abt LAD, they are such a feast or famine team to me, they had a good series against the Padres, scoring a lot of runs, that's why I'm placing value in the total, but I haven't put too much time into this matchup. I do place some value into momentum, and ATL is a team playing with confidence after that "almost" no-hitter by Teheran.
                    Comment
                    • 2daBank
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-26-09
                      • 88966

                      #11
                      that dude is something, but sadly ive bet lad way more times than im proud of this season (think twice when they got swept in atl, lol)... not sure why this was and still is the 1 overpaid, over hyped team i think is better than they are playing..thought all along halo's would suck and didnt buy blow jays, some reason im a sucker for dodgers far too often? why i have not a clue at this point..

                      yea cards was pretty clear winner tonight, not sure why i put oak in my det parlay instead of cards, oh yea cause it paid better, lol..but after fading cards last 2 knew it was them or nothing in this one after yesterday was basically a throw away for them...
                      Comment
                      • No coincidences
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 01-18-10
                        • 76300

                        #12
                        Originally posted by 2daBank
                        it lad or nothing for me,, prob pass but keep waiting for greinke to get right as just dont think left collar bone should effect his pitching all that much, so thinking it just more rust and he will get it back.. i dunno tho..
                        Can we get a clubhouse report re: his meds from someone? Want to make sure he's on them tonight.
                        Comment
                        • 2daBank
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-26-09
                          • 88966

                          #13
                          Originally posted by No coincidences
                          Can we get a clubhouse report re: his meds from someone? Want to make sure he's on them tonight.
                          i think what he needs to do is like a mini speedball cause clearly he needs zannys but who the penetrate wants to pitch if they all z'ed out? so give him zannys and then snort a aderal and presto, greinke fixed!
                          Comment
                          • Jago2008
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-18-11
                            • 3047

                            #14
                            That's a winner gentlemen
                            Comment
                            • BigPete55
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 05-01-13
                              • 441

                              #15
                              Right on Jag....tailed ya!! Nice call! Need Rockies now!
                              Love your insight! Thank you!
                              Comment
                              • Jago2008
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-18-11
                                • 3047

                                #16
                                Originally posted by BigPete55
                                Right on Jag....tailed ya!! Nice call! Need Rockies now!
                                Love your insight! Thank you!
                                Thanks bud, glad you won! I'm sorry about the Rockies tho - Padres were bound to break their losing streak to Colo. @ some point.

                                more totals coming.
                                Comment
                                • BigPete55
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 05-01-13
                                  • 441

                                  #17
                                  Look'n forward to it bud!
                                  Comment
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