TG's MLB (mostly) thread

[tg09]

Started a thread a few days ago in players talk but I feel like it belongs in the MLB forum since that's where the vast majority of my plays will be.

Thread Totals so far
8 W, 10 L, 1 P
-0.45 units

Looking at Rays and A's tonight. Any thoughts?

[Tofudog]

I love the A's but there is something fishy about the Rays line.. plus you never know what your going to get from that team, I would consider that a big gamble...

[tg09]

June 4 Plays - Risking 1 unit each
Rays (+134) vs Tigers - too good of a number to pass on with an 8-0 starter.....I'm probably falling into a trap as Detroit is really good on the road but I can't pass up +134 with an 8-0 starter on the mound when his team has won 11 of his 12 starts.
A's (-108) vs Brewers - I'll take the hottest team in baseball at almost even money every day of the week.

and my action junkie degenerate play of the night:

Jamaica +1 (-122) vs Mexico - Mexico drawn all 6 matches of 2013. Jamaica only lost 1 of last 21 matches by multiple goals. Hopefully tonight isn't the night Mexico gets it rolling.

[tg09]

I love the A's but there is something fishy about the Rays line.. plus you never know what your going to get from that team, I would consider that a big gamble...

I should have listened to you, tofu. Looks like Moore is throwing batting practice in Detroit.

Go A's

[tg09]

June 4 Summary - 0 W 2 L 1 Push
Rays (+134) vs Tigers - Loss: -1 unit
A's (-108) vs Brewers - Loss: -1 unit
Jamaica +1 (-122) vs Mexico - push

Thread Totals
8 W, 12 L, 2 P
-2.45 units

Leans for today
Giants (-118) vs Blue Jays- SF great record at home. Zito awesome numbers at home and in day games. RA Dickey's been a roller coaster this year.
Oakland (-105) - Oakland's obviously been hot. Colon has been great this year but went over 100 pitches for the first time all year in his last start.
Looking at Rays and Pirates as well. I don't see both teams getting swept. I actually like the Pirates a little more here as Wandy Rodriguez already dominated Atlanta once this year.

[tg09]

June 5 Plays - risking 1 unit each
SF Giants (-112) vs Blue Jays
Reds/Mariners Monster Chalk Parlay (+137)

passed on Oakland after line jumped from -105 to -127.

[tg09]

June 5 Summary
SF Giants (-112) vs Blue Jays - Loser: -1 unit
Reds/Mariners Monster Chalk Parlay (+137) Loser: -1 unit

shoulda grabbed oakland early morning before the line jumped.

No baseball tonight. Risking 1 unit on Penguins (-105).

Thread Totals
8 W, 14 L, 2 P
-4.45 units
If you're reading this you should jump on the fade train fast!!!

[tg09]

Penguins complete my 0-for the day bringing my thread record to 8 W, 15, L, 2 P and -5.45 units. Currently fighting a 5 bet losing streak. Thankfully I tailed a couple tennis winners from dmoneytx yesterday so my bankroll didn't get hit hard yesterday. Not posting those because they're not my picks.

June 6 Picks - risking 1 unit each
Yankees (-117) vs Mariners - Going with the day after losing a heartbreaker theory.
Red Sox (-129) vs Rangers - Lester great numbers at home. Sox get it done to win the series.
Cardinals/Heat Parlay: pays +130 - Love the Cardinals to win in this spot but not paying -165. Heat are the Heat.
Adding A's (-130) vs White Sox - Fading Sox. A's have the best record in baseball over the past two weeks while the White Sox have the worst. 17 innings yesterday, etc.

[tg09]

June 6 Results - 3 W, 1 L +1.39 units.
Yankees (-117) vs Mariners - Winner: +.86 units
Red Sox (-129) vs Rangers - Winner: +.78 units
Cardinals/Heat Parlay: pays +130 - Loser: -1 unit.
A's (-131) vs White Sox - Winner: +.76 units

Thread Totals
11 W, 16 L, 2 P
-3.06 units

Starting today off with Rafael Nadal (-155) in a 2 Leg Open Parlay for 1 unit.

Also am thinking of taking the Heat Series Price at +105 and not even touching a game the rest of the way. In all honesty I think I have about a 25% win rate when I bet them whether it's points or moneyline.

[tg09]

June 7 Picks- risking 1 unit
Pirates (-105) vs Cubs - Fading Cubs more than anything. Pirates need to bounce back after losing 5 of 6 to Reds and Braves.
Indians (+188) vs Tigers - Betting against Verlander is rarely smart, but his career numbers against the Indians are very average. 15-14 record with a 4.68 ERA. Numbers worse at Progressive field. 5-6 record with a 5.54 ERA.
2 Team open parlay: Rafael Nadal (-155): If Nadal finishes this off I'll probably fill it with something from a World Cup Qualifier.

Edit: Adding Italy (+135) to Nadal Parlay. Pays +287.

[tg09]

June 7 Results- 1 W, 2 L -1.05 units
Pirates (-105) vs Cubs - Winner +.95 units
Indians (+188) vs Tigers - Loser -1 Unit
Rafael Nadal/Italy Parlay - Loser -1 Unit
USA -.5,-1 (-105) vs Jamaica - Half Win - .47 units

Thread Totals
12.5 W, 18 L, 2.5 P
-3.69 units

[tg09]

June 8th Picks - Risking 1 Unit each
Marlins (+195) vs Mets - Tailing Konck on this. Even with Harvey on the mound, the Mets shouldn't be -200+ against anyone. Longshot, but definitely worth a shot.
Cardinals (+149) vs Reds - Latos has been awesome this year, and great against the Cardinals twice, but has a career 6.85 ERA with a 3-4 record. +149 is too big of a number to pass up with the best record in baseball.

Hopefully the dogs are barking today.

[tg09]

June 8th Picks - 1 W, 1, L +.95 Units
Marlins (+195) vs Mets - Winner: +1.95 units...credit to konck for really bringing this game to my attention this morning.
Cardinals (+149) vs Reds - Loser: -1 unit

Thread Totals
13.5 W, 19 L, 2.5 P
-2.73 units

[tg09]

June 9 Picks- risking 1 unit each
Pirates (-119) vs Cubs - Line seems too good to be true. But the pitching matchup is such a huge edge to Pirates I can't pass it up....that said watch Edwin Jackson go 8 shutout innings.
Rangers (+131) vs Blue Jays - I'll take my chances with the Rangers avoiding the sweep.

[tg09]

June 9 Results- 1 W, 1 L +.31 units
Pirates (-119) vs Cubs - Loser: -1 unit
Rangers (+131) vs Blue Jays - Winner: +1 unit

Thread Totals
14.5 W, 19 L, 2.5 P
-2.43 units

[tg09]

June 10 Plays - risking 1 unit each
Rays (-137) vs Red Sox - Rays great home record. Cobb has been awesome this year. Lackey has awful numbers against the Rays.
Brewers (-118) vs Marlins - Surely biggest trap game on the board (Pirates yesterday) won't get me two days in a row.....really makes me nervous that BigPage25 and pacocn both have the Marlins tonight.

[tg09]

June 10 Results - 1 W, 1 L -.14 units
Rays (-137) vs Red Sox - Loser: -1 unit
Brewers (-118) vs Marlins - Winner: +.855 units

Thread Totals
15.5 W, 20 L, 2.5 Push
-2.57 units

[tg09]

June 11 Plays - risking 1 unit each
Marlins (+103) vs Brewers - On paper I like the pitching matchup for the Marlins. I don't know who Jacob Turner is but he's got a 0.69 ERA in two starts this year, a WHIP of 1.17 the past calender year and was drafted 9th overall a few years ago so he must have some pretty good stuff. Wily Peralta has a 6.16 ERA and the Brewers have lost 5 of his last 6 starts. I'm like 4-1 on Marlins games over the past two week so I'll roll the dice with them again tonight.
Cardinals (-123) vs Mets - Hopefully Wacha has the same stuff he did in his first start. Might be a trap, but it's the best record in baseball vs the Mets. If it loses at least I'm going down with half of SBR.
Cubs (+118) vs Reds - Not gonna lie, I'm a sucker for Matt Garza. I thought he had potential to develop into an ace when he was in Tampa and has very good home number since he came to Chicago. 9-6 home record with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. To me +118 is a very good number.

[tg09]

June 11 Results - 2 W, 1 L
Marlins (+103) vs Brewers - Winner: +1.3 units
Cardinals (-123) vs Mets - Winner: .813 units
Cubs (+118) vs Reds - Loser: -1 unit

Thread Totals
17.5 W 21 L 2.5 P
-1.73 units

[tg09]

June 12 Early Picks - risking 1 unit each
Reds (-125) vs Cubs - Leake has pitched well against the Cubs twice already this year. Reds hit Wood hard once already this year. Reds are 9-2 vs Cubs this year, with a perfect 5-0 record at Wrigley.
Royals (+117) vs Tigers - It looks like this is a pretty popular home dog today. Royals have won 7 of 10 and James Shields has 11 quality starts out of 13. Verlander has given up at least 3 earned runs in 6 consecutive starts. Should be a tight game and I'll the the +117 at home.
Euro U21 - gotta get a degen soccer play in today
Spain -0.25 (-105) vs Netherlands- Spain U21 hasn't lost in 23 consecutive matches.

[tg09]

June 12 Afternoon Results 3-0 +2.95 Units
Reds (-125) vs Cubs - Winner: +.8 units
Royals (+117) vs Tigers - Winner +1.17 units
Euro U21 -
Spain -0.25 (-105) vs Netherlands- Winner + .952 units

Thread Totals
20.5 W, 21 L, 2.5 P
+1.12 Units

[tg09]

June 13 Plays - risking 1 unit each
Reds (-125) vs Cubs - Reds have owned the Cubs all year, especially at Wrigley. Samardzija is a stud but -125 is a damn good number with Latos.
Giants (-108) vs Cubs - Cain has struggled all year but has great career numbers against the current Pirate roster. Current Pirates have a .165 average with just 5 XBH in 115 AB. Current Giants have a .344 average against Charlie Morton.

[tg09]

June 13 Results: 1 W, 1 L -.074 units
Reds (-125) vs Cubs - Loser: -1 unit
Giants (-108) vs Cubs - Winner: +.926 units

Thread Totals21.5 W, 22 L, 2.5 P
+1.12 Units

[tg09]

June 16th Picks: - risking 1 unit as always
Nationals (-118) vs Indians: Probably a square pick taking a road favorite with a below .500 road record but -118 is a great number for a pitcher that's allowed just 4 ER in his last 30 innings. Cleveland has lost 15 of their last 21 and is only 4-7 in Kluber's 11 starts.
Diamondbacks (-108) vs Padres: When a first place team is only -108 against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 8.06 I will take that bet 100 out of 100 times. Maybe a trap as Clayton Richard is actually 6-0 against the D-backs the past 3 years but the ERA of 4.06 over that stretch tells me he's been pretty lucky. Diamondbacks current hitters have a career OPS of .824 against Richard.
Italy -.25 vs Mexico (Confed Cup): Mexico flat out cannot score. Mexico has scored a total of 3 goals in their last six matches. Italy hasn't been great lately, but I'm expecting them to look to push the issue against a Mexican side that has been borderline awful all year.

Adding Spain -1(-105) vs Uruguay: Spain has won 17 of last 21 matches in regular time and haven't lost over that same span. Rolling with the world champs here.

[tg09]

June 16th Results: 1-2-1 -.95 units
Nationals (-118) vs Indians: Loser: -1 Unit
Diamondbacks (-108) vs Padres: Loser-1 Unit.....Clayton effing Richard. Seriously? Who shoved a golden horshoe up his ass today? How do you go 8 innings, striking out just 1 batter and only give up one run.
Italy -.25 vs Mexico (Confed Cup): Winner: +1.05 units
Spain -1(-105) vs Uruguay: Push.....88th minute goal blows the win

Thread Results
22.5 W, 24 L, 3.5 P
+0.17 units

[tg09]

June 17th Plays: risking 1 unit each
A's (+104) vs Rangers: I had reasons for making this pick but then I saw Fishhead is on the Rangers and I know it's fokked. Oh well, I'm sticking to my guns.
Royals (-128) vs Indians: James Shields is a top 10 pitcher in basically every statistical category. Shields has had 2 poor starts all year and his been lights out so far in June. If KC can score, which they have been lately, this should be a winner.

[tg09]

June 17th Plays: 1-1 -.219 units
A's (+104) vs Rangers: Loser: -1 unit
Royals (-128) vs Indians: Winner +.781 units

Thread Totals
23.5 W, 25 L, 3.5 P
-0.048 units

[tg09]

June 18th Plays - risking 1 unit each
Mariners (+180) vs Angels - I can't not take +180 with Joe Blanton on the other side. Angels are hitting the ball and very well could knock Bonderman all over the yard. They are certainly going to win eventually with Joey B on the mound but +180 is too high for me to pass up tonight.
Astros (-102) vs Brewers - Astros are actually a .500 ballclub over the past month. Jordan Lyles has only allowed more than 3 runs once all year and gives the Astros a chance every time he takes the hill. Figaro was just average out of the bullpen the first two months of the season and I'm banking on him not being able to recreate his performance of his last start.

[tg09]

June 18th Results - 2-0 +2.78 units
Mariners (+180) vs Angels - Winner: +1.8 units - Can't believe this turned into a 3-2 extra inning pitchers duel.
Astros (-102) vs Brewers - Winner: +.98 units

Thread Totals
25.5 W, 25 L, 3.5 P
+2.732 units



Joe Blanton -195

[tg09]

June 19th Picks - risking 1 unit each.
Marlins (+137) vs Diamondbacks - Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez has been good all year but has been unreal so far in June. 2-0, 20 IP, 3 ER, 25 K's, 0.9 WHIP. Marlins average 4.0 runs per game when Fernandez pitches, but only 2.9 for all other starters. Might be coincidence, might be confidence in having a guy with great stuff on the mound, But I'll take the Marlins at +138. Marlins lineup also has career .301 avg and .741 OPS against Cahill.
Orioles (+144) vs Tigers - O's just beat Porcello a couple weeks ago. O's have won 5 straight Tillman starts and 10 of 14 on the year. Orioles have .314 career average against Porcello and OPS of .795.

Adding A's (-110) vs Rangers: Tommy Milone June ERA: 2.18 Justin Grimm June ERA: 11.40

[tg09]

June 19th Picks - 1-2 -.56 units
Marlins (+137) vs Diamondbacks - Loser: -1 unit
Orioles (+144) vs Tigers - Winner: +1.44 units
A's (-110) vs Rangers - Loser: -1 unit

Thread Totals
26.5 W, 27 L, 3.5 P
+2.172 Units

Looking at Mariners, Tigers, A's and Yankees/Rays O 8. Any thoughts on these?

[tg09]

June 20th Picks - risking 1 unit each
Tigers (-120) vs Red Sox: Tigers hitters have some impressive numbers against Lackey (.326 avg, .842 OPS) and Lackey has struggled on the road all year. Don't really know anything about Jose Alvarez but the Red Sox don't hit lefties nearly as well as Righties and Alvarez had a great first outing against Cleveland.
Mariners (-106) vs Angels: Love the opportunity to get King Felix at -106. Angels are hitting better lately and Felix has a poor career W-L record (2-5) against them but his career WHIP is only 1.093 so he has deserved better.

[tg09]

June 20th Results: 1-1 -.172 units
Tigers (-120) vs Red Sox: Winner +.83
Mariners (-106) vs Angels: Loser -1 unit

Mariners blew a damn 8-1 lead....I guess the baseball gods owed me a kick in the nuts after giving me a Tigers walk off win earlier in the night.

Thread Totals
27.5 W, 28 L, 3.5 P
+2.005 Units

[tg09]

June 25 Plays - risking 1 unit each
Mets (+158) vs White Sox - Both teams suck. Neither team can hit. Two good pitchers. I'll take the +158 even though I feel like the books are begging us to take Mets.
Marlins (-108) vs Twins - Fernandez has been lights out in June (5 ER in 27.1 IP) and is one of the best young pitchers in the game. The Marlins roster has great numbers against Corriea (.351 AVG, .945 OPS and 4 HR in 94 AB).

Daytime action play
Mexico U20 (+131) vs Paraguay - Mexico needs a win, I need action.

I really need a good week after a disaster 4 day stretch. I've been traveling around with the wife, golfing, etc. for a few days with no internet other than my phone. I needed action so I tailed BigPage and pacocn (who IMO are two of the best cappers on this site) as much as I could and somehow managed to go 6-12 for a 7.5 unit loss. I tail these guys a lot so I was up 23 units so far in June on non-posted plays but it always sucks to have three straight shitty days.

[tg09]

June 25 Results 1-2 -1.074 units
Mets (+158) vs White Sox - Loser: -1 unit
Marlins (-108) vs Twins -Winner: +.926 units
Daytime action play
Mexico U20 (+131) vs Paraguay - Loser: -1 unit

Thread Totals
28.5 W, 29 L, 3.5 P
+0.931 units