LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

BOL on the 2nd half LTA, keep up the good analysis.

Thought I would post this (lifted from another forum). Interesting fodder as we head forward. Results of best and worse value betting per team in first half:

MOST UNDERPRICED
Pittsburgh +14 units
Philadelphia +12 units
Cleveland +10 units
Arizona +10 units
Atlanta +9 units
San Francisco +8 units
NY Yankees +6 units
Boston +5 units

MOST OVERPRICED
Houston -27 units
Oakland -18 units
Chicago Cubs -17 units
Colorado -17 units
Baltimore -14 units
LA Dodgers -13 units
Kansas City -11 units

Philly really surprised me with the chalk they carry.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/14/11

Play #1

Giants/Padres under (6)(+100) 1.25x (Locked)

Locked this play in about twenty minutes ago, after some outlets dropped to even odds at a total of 6. The total opened at 6.5, but was hit hard and dropped to 6. Currently, Pinny still hast it 6.5, but it juicing it at a huge -140. The majority of all bets are on the under as we speak, but I expect that to even out a bit later in the day. Regardless, however, it was sharp steam that had this total falling.

If you look at Bumgarner's advanced stats, you have to respect him. This guy is top 30 MLB in tERA, FIP, xFIP and his batted ball peripherals are solid with a 1.35 GB/FB ratio. He's a got a bit of a high BABIP over .330, his LOB% is a bit low under 68% and his WHIP is a bit high over 1.30 so that's not the best, but I think he should limit a perhaps rusty Padres lineup that isn't the best in the first place. In his last three starts, his WHIP is 1.13 with a solid ERA of 3.10 and going 1 -2 o/u against low totals in that span. On the other side, Harang just came back from an injury to pitch 6 shutout innings against the Dodgers offense. I think Harang is rested and should be throwing his best for the rest of the year. Harang is solid with a tERA of 3.66 and an xFIP of 3.96. He's got a great LOB% over 76% and a great BABIP at .286. His WHIP is 1.28 on the year which is good, but 1.07 in his last three starts which is dominating. His 1.93 ERA over that same span is also impressive. His batted ball stats are not as good as Bumgarner, but still average with a GB/FB ratio over 1.00. Both guys have solid control with a K/BB over 2.10 and both can get crucial strikeouts averaging over 6.5 per game (with Bumgarner over 7.9). The Giants are a bit better fielding team overall, although both teams are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, their superior starting pitching combined with both teams' superior bullpens, makes this under bet a must-play. These two teams are 27th and 29th in MLB in runs scored, so I don't expect a lot of offense tonight against these solid starting pitchers and I'm rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck!

Play #2

Indians ML (-105) 1x (locked)

I can't pass this one up at a good price. Masterson dominates Guthrie in every conceivable stat, whether standard or advanced. The indians are the better offensive team, with the better bullpen and fielding. With the indians ability to win on the road and the oriolea less than stellar home record, I'm rolling with the tribe here for 1x. Good luck.

[JR007]

as well LTA...".riden" with you on this Giants under...solid play

both team totals juiced to the under ......

[vietphatty]

gl lta.. always appreciate the write ups

[italianbandit]

Hey Dexter pointed me here. Great thread, look forward to contributing.

[Love The Action]

Hey Dexter pointed me here. Great thread, look forward to contributing.

[Love The Action]

I lean yankees -1 RL and was going to make that my third play for today but couldn't get it in because of work.

[Love The Action]

I lean yankees -1 RL and was going to make that my third play for today but couldn't get it in because of work.

First time this has worked out in awhile...phew

[Love The Action]

Should have played my Brewers lean...got scared away because of their horrid road record. I think this team might be a good team to back moving forward. I have feeling they might catch fire.

[Dexter]

GL with the new thread LTA

[Dexter]

MLB 7/14/11

Play #1

Giants/Padres under (6)(+100) 1.25x (Locked)

Locked this play in about twenty minutes ago, after some outlets dropped to even odds at a total of 6. The total opened at 6.5, but was hit hard and dropped to 6. Currently, Pinny still hast it 6.5, but it juicing it at a huge -140. The majority of all bets are on the under as we speak, but I expect that to even out a bit later in the day. Regardless, however, it was sharp steam that had this total falling.

If you look at Bumgarner's advanced stats, you have to respect him. This guy is top 30 MLB in tERA, FIP, xFIP and his batted ball peripherals are solid with a 1.35 GB/FB ratio. He's a got a bit of a high BABIP over .330, his LOB% is a bit low under 68% and his WHIP is a bit high over 1.30 so that's not the best, but I think he should limit a perhaps rusty Padres lineup that isn't the best in the first place. In his last three starts, his WHIP is 1.13 with a solid ERA of 3.10 and going 1 -2 o/u against low totals in that span. On the other side, Harang just came back from an injury to pitch 6 shutout innings against the Dodgers offense. I think Harang is rested and should be throwing his best for the rest of the year. Harang is solid with a tERA of 3.66 and an xFIP of 3.96. He's got a great LOB% over 76% and a great BABIP at .286. His WHIP is 1.28 on the year which is good, but 1.07 in his last three starts which is dominating. His 1.93 ERA over that same span is also impressive. His batted ball stats are not as good as Bumgarner, but still average with a GB/FB ratio over 1.00. Both guys have solid control with a K/BB over 2.10 and both can get crucial strikeouts averaging over 6.5 per game (with Bumgarner over 7.9). The Giants are a bit better fielding team overall, although both teams are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, their superior starting pitching combined with both teams' superior bullpens, makes this under bet a must-play. These two teams are 27th and 29th in MLB in runs scored, so I don't expect a lot of offense tonight against these solid starting pitchers and I'm rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck!

a saber-metrics man...love it. fangraphs is a great site for analyzing a pitcher.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/14/11

Play #1

Giants/Padres under (6)(+100) 1.25x (Locked)

Locked this play in about twenty minutes ago, after some outlets dropped to even odds at a total of 6. The total opened at 6.5, but was hit hard and dropped to 6. Currently, Pinny still hast it 6.5, but it juicing it at a huge -140. The majority of all bets are on the under as we speak, but I expect that to even out a bit later in the day. Regardless, however, it was sharp steam that had this total falling.

If you look at Bumgarner's advanced stats, you have to respect him. This guy is top 30 MLB in tERA, FIP, xFIP and his batted ball peripherals are solid with a 1.35 GB/FB ratio. He's a got a bit of a high BABIP over .330, his LOB% is a bit low under 68% and his WHIP is a bit high over 1.30 so that's not the best, but I think he should limit a perhaps rusty Padres lineup that isn't the best in the first place. In his last three starts, his WHIP is 1.13 with a solid ERA of 3.10 and going 1 -2 o/u against low totals in that span. On the other side, Harang just came back from an injury to pitch 6 shutout innings against the Dodgers offense. I think Harang is rested and should be throwing his best for the rest of the year. Harang is solid with a tERA of 3.66 and an xFIP of 3.96. He's got a great LOB% over 76% and a great BABIP at .286. His WHIP is 1.28 on the year which is good, but 1.07 in his last three starts which is dominating. His 1.93 ERA over that same span is also impressive. His batted ball stats are not as good as Bumgarner, but still average with a GB/FB ratio over 1.00. Both guys have solid control with a K/BB over 2.10 and both can get crucial strikeouts averaging over 6.5 per game (with Bumgarner over 7.9). The Giants are a bit better fielding team overall, although both teams are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, their superior starting pitching combined with both teams' superior bullpens, makes this under bet a must-play. These two teams are 27th and 29th in MLB in runs scored, so I don't expect a lot of offense tonight against these solid starting pitchers and I'm rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck!

Play #2

Indians ML (-105) 1x (locked) WINNER

I can't pass this one up at a good price. Masterson dominates Guthrie in every conceivable stat, whether standard or advanced. The indians are the better offensive team, with the better bullpen and fielding. With the indians ability to win on the road and the oriolea less than stellar home record, I'm rolling with the tribe here for 1x. Good luck.

Adding 0.25x for total of 1.5x Padres/Giants under (6)(Locked)

Despite McClelland being the ump, I'm going to add to this play just a little based on the last steam. We'll make it an even 1.5x on this one. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

a saber-metrics man...love it. fangraphs is a great site for analyzing a pitcher.

Oh yeah for sure...fangraphs is a must-have in your capping arsenal.

[Love The Action]

GL with the new thread LTA

Thank you sir...I figured I would use the all-star break to transfer my MLB plays and record over here where I will just keep all my MLB from here on out. Good luck to you as well.

[Love The Action]

BOL on the 2nd half LTA, keep up the good analysis.

Thought I would post this (lifted from another forum). Interesting fodder as we head forward. Results of best and worse value betting per team in first half:

MOST UNDERPRICED
Pittsburgh +14 units
Philadelphia +12 units
Cleveland +10 units
Arizona +10 units
Atlanta +9 units
San Francisco +8 units
NY Yankees +6 units
Boston +5 units

MOST OVERPRICED
Houston -27 units
Oakland -18 units
Chicago Cubs -17 units
Colorado -17 units
Baltimore -14 units
LA Dodgers -13 units
Kansas City -11 units

Philly really surprised me with the chalk they carry.

Interesting...thanks!

[Love The Action]

Leans for 7/15/11:

Indians ML
Reds ML
Brewers/Rockies over
Royals/Twins over
Dodgers/Diamondbacks under
Angels/Oakland under
SF/SD under

[GGALLERT]

7/15/11
Brewers/Rockies Over is a 10* pick!!!!

[Love The Action]

7/15/11
Brewers/Rockies Over is a 10* pick!!!!

Damn..you're putting 10x on that one?

I don't know about that.

I'm not sold on that play quite yet. First, I hate taking the over at 9.5. Second, Narveson has a tendency to pitch well at times. While I don't have much faith in Nicasio, he is good at throwing ground balls and stranding base runners. Finally, I hate taking the over after the preceding game scores as an abnormally large amount of points.

With that said, both teams trends point over. Both pichers have been gas-cans over their last three starts and any the Mountain air is never going to hurt an over. I like the over here, but I definitely don't like it for more than 1x. Good luck on your 10x play...I hope you cash it!!!

[csmkr18]

2-0 to start this thread! Nice!

[ParlayKing]

With weak offenses and strong pens this gonna be a long ball game lol

[wilfor1]

I played all the overs tonight guys and went 6-1. I noticed the last few weeks that they are hittin big time. LTA definitely worth lookin at dude. These overs are gold and I really think if you play every game lot of money to be made.

[wilfor1]

7/15/11
Brewers/Rockies Over is a 10* pick!!!!

Might add an extra unit on this one given the info. Thx dude !

[HKT]

Adding 0.25x for total of 1.5x Padres/Giants under (6)(Locked)

Despite McClelland being the ump, I'm going to add to this play just a little based on the last steam. We'll make it an even 1.5x on this one. Good luck!

Unbelievable. 1-0 game going into the 9th, then extra inning and scoring erupts in the 12th.

[funnyman]

Tough break on that SF game. Looked like a sure winner.

[nickos86]

Are you ******* kidding me SF.... Way to score more runs in the 12th than you have in almost the whole season.

I feel like SFG have just given me a handjob with sandpaper.

Turned a +12.5x day in to a +2.5x day. Money is money though...

[Love The Action]

I played all the overs tonight guys and went 6-1. I noticed the last few weeks that they are hittin big time. LTA definitely worth lookin at dude. These overs are gold and I really think if you play every game lot of money to be made.

Do your thing...blindly playing overs is not for me...thanks and good luck.

[Love The Action]

Wow...I went to bed thinking I won that giants under...what a brutal beat...1-0 in the 9th...final score 6-2 in 12 innings...should have been an easy winner...just not fair.

[Love The Action]

I wish I would have stayed up for that Giants under debacle and suffered through it last night....now it ruined my morning and put me in a bad mood as I cap today's huge MLB and WNBA cards. WTF...

[natethagreat]

Whoo Hoo lets get another W today fellas

[natethagreat]

Philly -110

[Redscot]

I wish I would have stayed up for that Giants under debacle and suffered through it last night....now it ruined my morning and put me in a bad mood as I cap today's huge MLB and WNBA cards. WTF...

I hear ya bro, better to have taken the bitter pill at night and start off clean in the morn. Too top it off I had the Cubbies too and went to sleep thinking that was going to cash . Only thing mitigating a totally bummed out morning is I liked the Cubs under last night, but my fear of the Marmolade made me take the under 1st 5 .

Anywho, enough of that. Today is a clean slate, let's do some damage. To the book's that is!

[Love The Action]

I hear ya bro, better to have taken the bitter pill at night and start off clean in the morn. Too top it off I had the Cubbies too and went to sleep thinking that was going to cash . Only thing mitigating a totally bummed out morning is I liked the Cubs under last night, but my fear of the Marmolade made me take the under 1st 5 .

Anywho, enough of that. Today is a clean slate, let's do some damage. To the book's that is!

Great attitude...I love it! Thanks bro...big day ahead in both MLB and WNBA.

[Love The Action]

Leans for 7/15/11:

Indians ML
Reds ML
Brewers/Rockies over
Royals/Twins over
Dodgers/Diamondbacks under
Angels/Oakland under
SF/SD under

Adding to above leans:

Mariners ML
Devil Rays ML
Phillies ML

Big day today. Let's cash all of our tickets! I will be locking some early plays in sometime over the next 3 hours and then more before the games start. Good luck to all today.

[Love The Action]

Philly -110

I lean Philies as well....I will post if I play them. BOL...

[JR007]

Bad beat that was......oh well, nothing you can do but move on,