Originally Posted by
Love The Action
MLB 7/14/11
Play #1
Giants/Padres under (6)(+100) 1.25x (Locked)
Locked this play in about twenty minutes ago, after some outlets dropped to even odds at a total of 6. The total opened at 6.5, but was hit hard and dropped to 6. Currently, Pinny still hast it 6.5, but it juicing it at a huge -140. The majority of all bets are on the under as we speak, but I expect that to even out a bit later in the day. Regardless, however, it was sharp steam that had this total falling.
If you look at Bumgarner's advanced stats, you have to respect him. This guy is top 30 MLB in tERA, FIP, xFIP and his batted ball peripherals are solid with a 1.35 GB/FB ratio. He's a got a bit of a high BABIP over .330, his LOB% is a bit low under 68% and his WHIP is a bit high over 1.30 so that's not the best, but I think he should limit a perhaps rusty Padres lineup that isn't the best in the first place. In his last three starts, his WHIP is 1.13 with a solid ERA of 3.10 and going 1 -2 o/u against low totals in that span. On the other side, Harang just came back from an injury to pitch 6 shutout innings against the Dodgers offense. I think Harang is rested and should be throwing his best for the rest of the year. Harang is solid with a tERA of 3.66 and an xFIP of 3.96. He's got a great LOB% over 76% and a great BABIP at .286. His WHIP is 1.28 on the year which is good, but 1.07 in his last three starts which is dominating. His 1.93 ERA over that same span is also impressive. His batted ball stats are not as good as Bumgarner, but still average with a GB/FB ratio over 1.00. Both guys have solid control with a K/BB over 2.10 and both can get crucial strikeouts averaging over 6.5 per game (with Bumgarner over 7.9). The Giants are a bit better fielding team overall, although both teams are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, their superior starting pitching combined with both teams' superior bullpens, makes this under bet a must-play. These two teams are 27th and 29th in MLB in runs scored, so I don't expect a lot of offense tonight against these solid starting pitchers and I'm rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck!
Play #2
Indians ML (-105) 1x (locked) WINNER
I can't pass this one up at a good price. Masterson dominates Guthrie in every conceivable stat, whether standard or advanced. The indians are the better offensive team, with the better bullpen and fielding. With the indians ability to win on the road and the oriolea less than stellar home record, I'm rolling with the tribe here for 1x. Good luck.
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. Only thing mitigating a totally bummed out morning is I liked the Cubs under last night, but my fear of the Marmolade made me take the under 1st 5 
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