I've been looking for the right time to go big on Teheran/Braves

[No coincidences]

Monday at +132 might be it.

This kid is going to be special. His surface stats may not look that great, but he's getting there and was outstanding in his last start (at Coors).

There are a few problems here, though. Strasburg hasn't exactly had the hot hand, and I'm never big on fading aces when they're a wounded animal backed into a corner. Nats started hitting in the StL series, and the Braves are coming off an awful series at Detroit. Plus, they're +132 at home against a team they've owned with the superior record? Stras hasn't been good in his career vs. Atlanta. Line doesn't exactly instill confidence.

Thoughts?

[BigPage25]

I dont trust the Atlanta Bats as they have struggled lately to score runs.... I think i would lean more on playing the under for this game

[No coincidences]

Also, the Mets should not be -165 on the road vs. anyone. I know it's Harvey and I know it's the Marlins, but it's also the Mets.

[Jago2008]

Also, the Mets should not be -165 on the road vs. anyone. I know it's Harvey and I know it's the Marlins, but it's also the Mets.

[EXhoosier10]

I like the entire Braves pitching staff, including Teheran, but I don't think I can fade SS in this spot. I think if this matchup happened 100 times (SS v Teheran @ Atlanta), Braves would win > 44%, but after a sweep in detroit and coming back from a 11 day road trip, I have a hard time feeling confident that today is one of those times that they get a win. On top of that, someone smart on this board said that fading teams on their first game back home after a long road trip tends to be profitable -- I think it was CappinTerp.

[Big Bear]

well one thing you have going for you is this game will be on espn and a lot of time the public loses in these spots. But... Teahran is a gas can, and the Braves struggle against strike out type pitchers.

i think the scouting report is out on Grattis too, it won't be long before he is out of the league.

[No coincidences]

I like the entire Braves pitching staff, including Teheran, but I don't think I can fade SS in this spot. I think if this matchup happened 100 times (SS v Teheran @ Atlanta), Braves would win > 44%, but after a sweep in detroit and coming back from a 11 day road trip, I have a hard time feeling confident that today is one of those times that they get a win. On top of that, someone smart on this board said that fading teams on their first game back home after a long road trip tends to be profitable -- I think it was CappinTerp.

Yeah, you're right about that. I do it myself all the time.

[No coincidences]

well one thing you have going for you is this game will be on espn and a lot of time the public loses in these spots. But... Teahran is a gas can, and the Braves struggle against strike out type pitchers.

i think the scouting report is out on Grattis too, it won't be long before he is out of the league.

I don't necessarily think the public will be huge on Washington, though I don't know.

Teherean isn't a "gas can." He's a 22-year-old learning the ropes and getting better.

Line has dropped big since last night. Should've taken the +132 when I had the chance if I was going to play this for multiple units.

[TankHankerous]

i think the scouting report is out on Grattis too, it won't be long before he is out of the league.

Agreed, looks like his first time facing a breaking ball was 2 months ago.

[easyliving]

strausburg might have 10+ K's tonight. The + money is probably the right bet here but I'm gonna stay away.

[The Samurai]

I must be missing something. Ss has been very hitable lately. Braves hack at everything. At least a couple of these guys are gonna murder the fast ball. Teheran looking better. Either braves or no play.

[YouHave2outs]

I must be missing something. Ss has been very hitable lately. Braves hack at everything. At least a couple of these guys are gonna murder the fast ball. Teheran looking better. Either braves or no play.

Strasburg hasn't exactly had the hot hand, and I'm never big on fading aces when they're a wounded animal backed into a corner.
Thoughts?

Basically coin doesn't ever fade Stras. Either he's rolling or he's backed into a corner.

[BigBoi]

Braves coming home after a road trip against a divisional opponent in front of a packed crowd on ESPN. Almost a must pick.

[vyomguy]

thinking of taking R+H+E under

[tatddy]

Braves coming home after a road trip against a divisional opponent in front of a packed crowd on ESPN. Almost a must pick.

This isn't an SEC football game. That's not relevant here my friend.

[Big Bear]

This isn't an SEC football game. That's not relevant here my friend.

lol i know right

[Jago2008]

thinking of taking R+H+E under

There's a slight wind blowing into Turner field ~5-7mph, Braves still have one of the best BPs in the NL to support your theory. What concerns me however is that of the Nationals BP (cumulative WHIP of 1.7 and BAA of close to .300). Stras has been giving up runs early in his previous few starts, if he can get that under control early, this game surely should go under '7' and also R+H+E. I guess also this is a divisional game so defense will be at a premium.

[aufordboy]

I have 1 unit on the braves tonight. I could see the game going either way. BOL tonight

[Jago2008]

I also forgot to mention that Soriano won't be available to pitch today after the birth of his child so look to the Nats using Storen, Mattheus.

[Bbfromgpt]

well one thing you have going for you is this game will be on espn and a lot of time the public loses in these spots. But... Teahran is a gas can, and the Braves struggle against strike out type pitchers.

i think the scouting report is out on Grattis too, it won't be long before he is out of the league.

I wouldn't go as far as putting Terehan in that category. He's still a kid and one of the best young pitchers with the brightest future. There's a reason he is widely talked about when "best young pitchers" is discussed. However, he at times struggled with the same issues Minor had last year. He can be breezing along and have that one blow up inning.


A good thing for Braves backers is Strasburg has been garbage in ATL. ATL has the overall better staff, they will prove in the long run they will be the better team. However, that lineup is cold right now. The three runs they got last night were purely luck. Btw I'm a diehard braves fan so just being honest about last night.


This game could go either way and I leaned Wash for tonight until I saw where overrated Espinosa said

"I still don't think that they are better than us," second baseman Danny Espinosa told the team's official website following a 9-0 loss to the Braves on April 14. "It doesn't last forever. So I'm not worried about it. I'm going to be real confident the next 16 games."


they may just get slapped around some more like the Braves have been doing to them since middle of last season

[No coincidences]

Basically coin doesn't ever fade Stras. Either he's rolling or he's backed into a corner.

Huh?

[YouHave2outs]

you don't want to fade him when he's doing poorly? when pitchers are doing well you reference this as an angle to back a team. when would you back stras?

im j/k bro, we know you just tail good posters and bet line moves.

[bradleysnyder]

I love atlanta here to.You have to consider the weather they just played in up in detroit.Also it was a few mistakes by the braves pitchers that made the beatings look worse then they really were.Last night there is NO reason they should have gave upall those runs late with the cabrera home run in a down poor.Atlanta pitching is very sketchy,but i think they have very good bats if they would wake up.Heyward being out does not help and BJ upton has just been atrocious since leaving tampa.This game has nationals win written all over it,specially with the late night travel and little rest for atlanta.Very Very tough game to wager on tonight,BUT i have nationals in a few small patlays.Nothing serious on this one because you dont know how atl is going to respond to the short rest.If anything i really really.like the under in this one.Atl should be sluggish and i think.they have the right pitcher in in both sides to hold this under tonight.Good Luck

[YouHave2outs]

I love atlanta here to.You have to consider the weather they just played in up in detroit.Also it was a few mistakes by the braves pitchers that made the beatings look worse then they really were.Last night there is NO reason they should have gave upall those runs late with the cabrera home run in a down poor.Atlanta pitching is very sketchy,but i think they have very good bats if they would wake up.Heyward being out does not help and BJ upton has just been atrocious since leaving tampa.This game has nationals win written all over it,specially with the late night travel and little rest for atlanta.Very Very tough game to wager on tonight,BUT i have nationals in a few small patlays.Nothing serious on this one because you dont know how atl is going to respond to the short rest.If anything i really really.like the under in this one.Atl should be sluggish and i think.they have the right pitcher in in both sides to hold this under tonight.Good Luck

unreal

"i love atlanta here"

"i have the nats in a few small bets"

"tough game to wager on"

"if anything take the under"

[HOT WINGS]

I like Braves but not going large just normal play. Also like Reds and Pirates GL

[TankHankerous]

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Will Laz Diaz have an effect on this game...he is known by many to be one of the worst umps in the game. Someone should do some digging into his tendencies.

[Big Bear]

unreal

"i love atlanta here"

"i have the nats in a few small bets"

"tough game to wager on"

"if anything take the under"

that guy should stay far away from the sportsbooks.

[No coincidences]

I love atlanta here to.You have to consider the weather they just played in up in detroit.Also it was a few mistakes by the braves pitchers that made the beatings look worse then they really were.Last night there is NO reason they should have gave upall those runs late with the cabrera home run in a down poor.Atlanta pitching is very sketchy,but i think they have very good bats if they would wake up.Heyward being out does not help and BJ upton has just been atrocious since leaving tampa.This game has nationals win written all over it,specially with the late night travel and little rest for atlanta.Very Very tough game to wager on tonight,BUT i have nationals in a few small patlays.Nothing serious on this one because you dont know how atl is going to respond to the short rest.If anything i really really.like the under in this one.Atl should be sluggish and i think.they have the right pitcher in in both sides to hold this under tonight.Good Luck

What?

[No coincidences]

you don't want to fade him when he's doing poorly? when pitchers are doing well you reference this as an angle to back a team. when would you back stras?

im j/k bro, we know you just tail good posters and bet line moves.

I just "tail good posters and bet line moves"? That makes no sense if you pay attention to my thread.

[The Samurai]

3-2 atl top of the 8th. Game over. All ml bettors can now cash their wagers.

[No coincidences]

Can't believe I didn't take the Bravos here.

[SteelRain]

Can't believe I didn't take the Bravos here.

i thought you did and i tailed you good call regardless

[No coincidences]

i thought you did and i tailed you good call regardless

LOL -- at least one of us cashed.

I only took the Braves TT over 3 and pushed.

[No coincidences]

Pretty solid outing by the kid tonight -- especially given how hot SF's bats had been recently.