1. As stated in previous posts, back Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum in every game they pitch this year. Each of these pitchers are going to win 20 games a piece, and are both turning into prime time pitchers. Lincecum has 4 number one pitches and Hamels has one of the nastiest change-ups in the history of the Majors. Don't be afraid to eat the chalk, as these two will be -200 to -300, especially at home, but regardless of offense -- they have the potential to SHUT TEAMS OUT & go the distance, meaning a win with just one or more runs from the offense, no matter how "hot" or "cold" they are. If you're scared of eating chalk and thinking about taking each of them -1.5 runs, DON'T. There were an uncountable number of games this last season when Hamels won by one run when the Phils offense sputters and when Lincecum was eeking out 1-0 wins as the backbone of a horrible Giants offense. The runline for these guys is NOT a winner.
2. Bet AGAINST Randy Johnson in every game he pitches. His falling from his prime started a couple years ago but hasn't been more evident than it was this year. He's only playing this season to reach the milestone of 500 wins, and will routinely enjoy getting touched up for four to five runs a game. He'll be -150 to -200 at home and with an ANEMIC Giants offense, may be a great pick to lose to several well bet underdogs. Examine these games closely. Randy Johnson WILL LOSE a lot this year.
3. The Yankees are NOT the lock of the century to do ANYTHING this year. This is a team that, not unlike our current economy, has spent so much money that if they do not produce results, will implode like our stock market. The Yankees have created such a financial bubble around their team that if they DON'T make the playoffs this year, attendance will deplete and the team will find themselves in debt. Just adding C.C. and Texiera does in NO WAY guarantee a playoff spot and as we learned last season, this team has a lot of kinks to work out. The Yanks, especially with C.C. on the mound will be in the -200 to -300 region, especially being at home, and could offer some underdog value if you pick your opposing teams correctly.
4. Dice-K may not even win 10 games this season. READ IT AGAIN : Dice-K may not even win 10 games this season. Anyone who watched Dice-K this last season had to have been surprised that ANY pitcher who walks that amount of people can continue to generate wins. It is a simple matter of math - if you walk 5+ batters a game, you can only get lucky and win games so many times. This is the year that batters begin to understand Dice-K's strengths and weaknesses and let him start walking home runs, as well as waiting for the bases to juice up and taking full advantage of it. There is no doubt that Dice-K will frequently be -200 to -300, especially at home, and there is some VERY good value in betting against him.
5. The Rays, despite being contenders last year, may only barely break .500. This team is young and despite having a KILLER pitching staff, they got lucky a number of times this past season resulting in their stint in the WS. Longoria, like Upton, Baldelli and others are talented, but don't necessarily understand the meaning of being clutch (as shown during the WS). Despite some talent, this team lacks EXPERIENCE. The addition of Burrell as DH will help their on base percentage (he walks a lot) and add a bit to the experience level, but it might not be enough of a spark for this team. Burrell has bordered on slumping majorly each of the last 3 seasons and at almost 35 years old with two shitty knees, this could be the season it happens. This team is going to be capped at well above their talent level due to their WS stint, and look for some value in opposition when the Rays are -200+ at home with Kazmir and co. pitching. Pick your dogs wisely.
6. The Brewers are awful. It's only a matter of time before Prince Fielder goes the way of Dmitry Young and either comes down with Type II Diabetes or just flat out loses his swing. When a 300 pound slob of a first basemen is the "spark" that gets your team going, there is a problem. This team lacks a big-time player to help spark serious results. There is only so much that a fat slob can do behind the plate when the time comes to actually be athletic. Their infield is a mess, and their pitching staff is also in turmoil. Look to take advantage of some dogs playing Milwaukee at home, as this team is definitely not playoff caliber for the 09 season.
7. The Cubs are going to ROLL. With the solid pitching lineup of Dempster, Hardin, Zambrano, Lilly and co., you're looking at four #1 pitchers. Add that to Lee, Ramirez and Soriano's bats with the rookie talent of Geovany Soto going to the next level, and you have the potential for a team to crush records this upcoming year. Fukodome and Johnson showed some serious ability this past season and will only hone their game even more in the 09' season. The Cubs will find their stride this year and tear off wins on a frequent basis. There may be some great value in Cubs games where they're -110 to -170, either home or away. You just simply cannot ignore above average pitching combined with above average hitting potential -- whether it's on the road or not.
8. Ignore/Bet Against the Marlins. There's nothing to think about with the Marlins this upcoming season. So called "breakout" seasons by Cantu, Ross, Uggla and co. can be disregarded as pitchers not knowing enough about the teams hitting tendencies to be prepared. The Marlins hit a **** TON of home runs during the 08' season but failed to play small ball and produce the clutch runs needed to make a playoff run. Put simply, the Marlins got very lucky and hit a lot of fastballs out of the park. According to baseball commentators this made them a "dangerous" hitting team, but according to me it makes them "unbalanced", "primitive", and "predictable". Take a look at Dan Uggla's 2008 All-Star game statistics and you'll see what I mean -- when facing some serious pitching, it's strikeouts and leaving runners stranded on third with less than two outs. Get used to this, the Marlins will start, fart, and fall.
9. The Cardinals will suck less, led by Kyle Lohse and MVP Pujols. The Cards had a pretty solid 08 team and will look to build on a mediocre season in 2009. Behind the pitching of Lohse, Pinerio, Wellemeyer and co., Pujols and Ankiel will continue to swing decent bats this season. This team had just enough spark behind it last year to lead them to believe that 09' will be a big season for them. They're going to enter the season with serious expectations of playoffs and will play accordingly. All-around high quality catcher Yadi Molina fills out an "above-average" hitting and fielding squad for the Cards this season. This is a team that's in the position to make a move in '09, so look for it.
2. Bet AGAINST Randy Johnson in every game he pitches. His falling from his prime started a couple years ago but hasn't been more evident than it was this year. He's only playing this season to reach the milestone of 500 wins, and will routinely enjoy getting touched up for four to five runs a game. He'll be -150 to -200 at home and with an ANEMIC Giants offense, may be a great pick to lose to several well bet underdogs. Examine these games closely. Randy Johnson WILL LOSE a lot this year.
3. The Yankees are NOT the lock of the century to do ANYTHING this year. This is a team that, not unlike our current economy, has spent so much money that if they do not produce results, will implode like our stock market. The Yankees have created such a financial bubble around their team that if they DON'T make the playoffs this year, attendance will deplete and the team will find themselves in debt. Just adding C.C. and Texiera does in NO WAY guarantee a playoff spot and as we learned last season, this team has a lot of kinks to work out. The Yanks, especially with C.C. on the mound will be in the -200 to -300 region, especially being at home, and could offer some underdog value if you pick your opposing teams correctly.
4. Dice-K may not even win 10 games this season. READ IT AGAIN : Dice-K may not even win 10 games this season. Anyone who watched Dice-K this last season had to have been surprised that ANY pitcher who walks that amount of people can continue to generate wins. It is a simple matter of math - if you walk 5+ batters a game, you can only get lucky and win games so many times. This is the year that batters begin to understand Dice-K's strengths and weaknesses and let him start walking home runs, as well as waiting for the bases to juice up and taking full advantage of it. There is no doubt that Dice-K will frequently be -200 to -300, especially at home, and there is some VERY good value in betting against him.
5. The Rays, despite being contenders last year, may only barely break .500. This team is young and despite having a KILLER pitching staff, they got lucky a number of times this past season resulting in their stint in the WS. Longoria, like Upton, Baldelli and others are talented, but don't necessarily understand the meaning of being clutch (as shown during the WS). Despite some talent, this team lacks EXPERIENCE. The addition of Burrell as DH will help their on base percentage (he walks a lot) and add a bit to the experience level, but it might not be enough of a spark for this team. Burrell has bordered on slumping majorly each of the last 3 seasons and at almost 35 years old with two shitty knees, this could be the season it happens. This team is going to be capped at well above their talent level due to their WS stint, and look for some value in opposition when the Rays are -200+ at home with Kazmir and co. pitching. Pick your dogs wisely.
6. The Brewers are awful. It's only a matter of time before Prince Fielder goes the way of Dmitry Young and either comes down with Type II Diabetes or just flat out loses his swing. When a 300 pound slob of a first basemen is the "spark" that gets your team going, there is a problem. This team lacks a big-time player to help spark serious results. There is only so much that a fat slob can do behind the plate when the time comes to actually be athletic. Their infield is a mess, and their pitching staff is also in turmoil. Look to take advantage of some dogs playing Milwaukee at home, as this team is definitely not playoff caliber for the 09 season.
7. The Cubs are going to ROLL. With the solid pitching lineup of Dempster, Hardin, Zambrano, Lilly and co., you're looking at four #1 pitchers. Add that to Lee, Ramirez and Soriano's bats with the rookie talent of Geovany Soto going to the next level, and you have the potential for a team to crush records this upcoming year. Fukodome and Johnson showed some serious ability this past season and will only hone their game even more in the 09' season. The Cubs will find their stride this year and tear off wins on a frequent basis. There may be some great value in Cubs games where they're -110 to -170, either home or away. You just simply cannot ignore above average pitching combined with above average hitting potential -- whether it's on the road or not.
8. Ignore/Bet Against the Marlins. There's nothing to think about with the Marlins this upcoming season. So called "breakout" seasons by Cantu, Ross, Uggla and co. can be disregarded as pitchers not knowing enough about the teams hitting tendencies to be prepared. The Marlins hit a **** TON of home runs during the 08' season but failed to play small ball and produce the clutch runs needed to make a playoff run. Put simply, the Marlins got very lucky and hit a lot of fastballs out of the park. According to baseball commentators this made them a "dangerous" hitting team, but according to me it makes them "unbalanced", "primitive", and "predictable". Take a look at Dan Uggla's 2008 All-Star game statistics and you'll see what I mean -- when facing some serious pitching, it's strikeouts and leaving runners stranded on third with less than two outs. Get used to this, the Marlins will start, fart, and fall.
9. The Cardinals will suck less, led by Kyle Lohse and MVP Pujols. The Cards had a pretty solid 08 team and will look to build on a mediocre season in 2009. Behind the pitching of Lohse, Pinerio, Wellemeyer and co., Pujols and Ankiel will continue to swing decent bats this season. This team had just enough spark behind it last year to lead them to believe that 09' will be a big season for them. They're going to enter the season with serious expectations of playoffs and will play accordingly. All-around high quality catcher Yadi Molina fills out an "above-average" hitting and fielding squad for the Cards this season. This is a team that's in the position to make a move in '09, so look for it.
