Braves -119 ?!?!

[PorkChop]

At Colorado after losing three straight with Minor on the mound.

Someone tell me why I shouldn't pound this?

[BigD46]

I'm on ATL but the weather concerns me.

[PorkChop]

Weather should only be a plus to Atlanta, favoring pitcher.

Minor > Francis.

[Ralphie1412]

I was hoping no one made a thread like this. I want to bet ATL but just cant.

[PorkChop]

ml (-119) & -1 (+110)

[Darkside Magick]

Purple power .....Rockies!!!!!

[EXhoosier10]

ml (-119) & -1 (+110)

A +130 -1.5 on a -120 favorite seems kind of fishy. I need to do some research

[EASports]

A +130 -1.5 on a -120 favorite seems kind of fishy. I need to do some research

Road team + high total = loose Run line #.

[EVPlus]

I'm just going to watch the first game in the double header.

IF the Rockies do not use up their best bp arms (relatively speaking) in game 1, I'm putting a
unit on them in game 2 (Teheran vs Garland).

Braves 10-9 when road dog of +110 or more.
Rockies 12-7 when home fave of -120 or more.
EDGE: COL

Braves 5-5 in last 10 Tuesday road games.
Rockies 5-5 in last 10 Tuesday home games.
EDGE: NONE

Braves 7-3 in last 10 road games.
Rockies 9-1 in last 10 home games.
EDGE: COL (small)

Braves 6-4 in last 10 game 2 of a 3-game series road game.
Rockies 7-3 in last 10 game 2 of a 3-game series home game.
EDGE: COL (small)

Teheran 3-0 this season.
Garland 3-0 this season.
EDGE: NONE

Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Rockies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
EDGE: COL

Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
Rockies are 8-1 in their last 9 games on grass.
EDGE: COL

Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
Rockies are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
EDGE: COL

Braves are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Colorado.
What I find interesting about this trend is that all these games took place last year - when the
Rockies were having huge issues with the pitching staff. Because some of these issues have been
addressed for the 2013 season, I actually see a pay-back angle on the Rockies side. No competitor
enjoys losing in his home field, let alone 4 straight times. As long as the Rockies pitching staff can keep it close, their batters have a chance to score more runs.

Teheran's 2013 numbers:

Date	Opp	S/R	Res	Scr	M/L	O/U	IP	H	R	ER	SO	BB	HR	PIT	P/IP	G/F
4/18/2013	@ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2971.html	S	ND	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/results/2013/boxscore355375.html	W -109	O 8.5	5.0	7	4	4	4	3	2	87	17.4	1.50
4/12/2013	@ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2972.html	S	ND	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/results/2013/boxscore355370.html	W 126	O 8.5	6.0	6	4	4	6	3	1	97	16.2	2.33
4/6/2013	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2982.html	S	ND	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/results/2013/boxscore355365.html	W -170	O 7.5	5.0	8	5	5	2	1	2	88	17.6	5.00

Garland's 2013 numbers:

Date	Opp	S/R	Res	Scr	M/L	O/U	IP	H	R	ER	SO	BB	HR	PIT	P/IP	G/F
4/18/2013	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2964.html	S	W	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/results/2013/boxscore356182.html	W -113	O 9.5	7.0	6	2	2	4	0	0	83	11.9	3.00
4/12/2013	@ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2955.html	S	ND	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/results/2013/boxscore356176.html	W -103	O 7.5	6.0	5	3	3	4	1	1	88	14.7	5.00
4/6/2013	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/team2955.html	S	W	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/results/2013/boxscore356171.html	W -138	U 11	6.0	5	2	2	2	2	0	75	12.5	11.00

In Teheran, I don't see any clear signs of improvement. Granted, he did face the Nationals as well as the Pirates (when their bats started heating up). But keep in mind that the Rockies' line up can hit pretty damn well.

And you can argue that Garland has faced some soft competition. And that can definitely skew the stats in his favor. I would like to think that Garland, a guy who asked to be waived from the Mariners when he didn't make their starting list, has something of a chip on his shoulder. I suspect he will want to make solid showing against one of the most feared line ups in baseball.

Now both Teheran and Garland want to prove that they belong in the 'Show.'

Here is the difference between the two. The Braves are willing to let Teheran have less than
stellar days. Gonzales has been quoted that the team needs to be patient with him. You can argue that this is just what the management is telling the press - and it can very well be true. One more fukk up and this kid goes back to the farm.

Garland, because he's a bit longer in the tooth, has no such luxury. He's no rookie that management is waiting to blossom into a superstar.

Another difference that's less open to debate is Garland is pitching at his home field. He knows first hand the importance of keeping the fly-ball percentage to a minimum. He's acclimated to the altitude and knows how to pace himself between pitches. He's no Cy Young candidate. But he is a guy that can keep the Rockies within striking distance. And that's good enough for me.

Yes, Teheran knows he's throwing in a hitter-friendly park. Yes, he knows he's at a higher elevation than what's he's used to. But once that long ball or triple goes
over his head, I don't think he'll have the experience to compose himself. I suspect he'll make the classic young pitcher mistake of trying to throw harder when the shit hits the fan, when in fact he should be more focused on placement and pitch selection. And then the Rockies' batters will eat him alive. The only way I see the Rockies bats shutting down is if the Braves bp are on their game.

Braves bp have 68/38 ground ball to flyball ratio in 2013.
Rockies bp have 79/50 ratio in 2013.

So there is a slight advantage to the Braves if this thing turns into a late-inning dog fight.

And there is also the possibility that Teheran can dramatically improve and Garland regresses horribly. But that's why it's called taking a calculated risk.

To recap - IF Francis can keep his act together and the Rockies don't use up their bp (especially Rex Brothers and Rafael Betancourt), I'm going to put one unit on them in Game 2.

[I/O]

If Atlanta drops game one, I'll most likely hit the Rocks for the sweep.

[EXhoosier10]

Road team + high total = loose Run line #.

I'm an idiot. that RL makes perfect sense

[ses_d]

Wow play looked like a trap...too easy...and its Braves home run derby. Fml

[BadLuckSanta]

not so fast.

[PorkChop]

Yes sir.

[BigD46]

Yes sir.