Seattle 54% - Loewen is showing some signs of coming around a bit, but he still will be vulnerable against Seattle, especially if he continues to have problems with walks. Meche is also likely to get hit, but he has a better chance of having a good start than Loewen. Trade rumors are surrounding Tejada, and if he gets traded away before the game, Baltimore will be at an added disadvantage. Beyond that, the bullpens and lineups rate roughly even.
Cleveland 55% - Wells' likely outing is difficult to ascertain statistically, but common sense says a 43-year-old starter who hasn't pitched in a competitive game in 2 months, going up against a capable offense at Fenway, is in for some trouble. Cleveland has been cold offensively for the a few games now, but they do have some pop in their lineup, and facing Wells and Boston's mediocre middle relievers presents a favorable setting for them to break out of their team-wide slump. Boston will likely have to slug their way to a win in this game, which is very possible against Byrd and the Cleveland pen, but not probable. Byrd should have a significantly better start than Wells. After that it's up in the air, but Cleveland should go to the bullpen with at least a small lead.
Detroit 61% - The starting pitching rating for this game has a high degree of uncertainty. It's not clear how much Rogers has on his pitches right now. If he has anything reasonable, Detroit will have a big edge in this game, since their major lineup and bullpen edges will give them ample opportunity to pull away in the later innings. If he has nothing, he will have another 7-run, low-inning outing, which will be tough for Detroit to overcome. Fossum is likely to have a less-than-mediocre start. Rogers is likely to have enough to keep Detroit in the game, but the confidence number of that likelihood is low.
Cleveland 55% - Wells' likely outing is difficult to ascertain statistically, but common sense says a 43-year-old starter who hasn't pitched in a competitive game in 2 months, going up against a capable offense at Fenway, is in for some trouble. Cleveland has been cold offensively for the a few games now, but they do have some pop in their lineup, and facing Wells and Boston's mediocre middle relievers presents a favorable setting for them to break out of their team-wide slump. Boston will likely have to slug their way to a win in this game, which is very possible against Byrd and the Cleveland pen, but not probable. Byrd should have a significantly better start than Wells. After that it's up in the air, but Cleveland should go to the bullpen with at least a small lead.
Detroit 61% - The starting pitching rating for this game has a high degree of uncertainty. It's not clear how much Rogers has on his pitches right now. If he has anything reasonable, Detroit will have a big edge in this game, since their major lineup and bullpen edges will give them ample opportunity to pull away in the later innings. If he has nothing, he will have another 7-run, low-inning outing, which will be tough for Detroit to overcome. Fossum is likely to have a less-than-mediocre start. Rogers is likely to have enough to keep Detroit in the game, but the confidence number of that likelihood is low.
