Dmoneytx Daily Tennis Picks

[Hardcoar]

Did anybody say that? I am lost....I said nothing of the sort. What I said is that there are MANY undervalued dogs out there.....and I think the best way to cap tennis is to find them....I am not sure how that doesn't make sense to you.....if you sat all day and bet EVERY dog on one side of the ML and EVERY favourite on the other side of the ML, I am 1000% sure that the dogs' ML finishes ahead of the faves ML....track it and see....but it won't even be close.

Now, don't get me wrong, you would still lose betting every dog, BUT, the key is identifying the dogs that the public has left a ton of meat on the bone.

If you want to see if I 'understand' capping, feel free to check out my daily picks....I would welcome your well thought out opinion there.

You declared how much value there was in today's underdogs, proceeding to name several winning bets.

What you claim to have said in this (above quoted) post is nothing like what you said or implied in your earlier post on which I commented. It could be what you meant to do, however. It makes perfect sense to me, but it's not what you said before at all.

Outside Grand Slams and end stages of 500+ tournaments, I would say you're likely correct.

From this post, I'd say you seem to understand "capping". From the one before, I would have said you don't.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Hey D....

Maybe I should have PM's you about this, but with your knowledge of tennis.....well, I think you are going about this entirely the wrong way. I hope I do not offend you....that is certainly not what I want to do.

I believe there is SOOOOO much value in finding dogs that are heavily undervalued. Betting these big faves is a sure fire way to....well, to tread water. You have the knowledge and when I see you write about a guy who is +400 and who will make it a close match....should your money not be going on that guy at +4.5 or +5 games? Maybe a small portion as well onto the ML.....

I think you know your shit....but I think you could be KILLING the other side of things.

D2D

This is my first post....this is what my last posts were referring to.....this morning when I pointed out those games I said something like 'I am sure a few of these were on your radar', not that he should be betting all dogs. If you had gone back to this, my original post you would have seen what I was talking about.

Just trying to give the guy a suggestion....if you don't like it then post an intelligent counter-post.

[Dollars2Donuts]

You declared how much value there was in today's underdogs, proceeding to name several winning bets.

What you claim to have said in this (above quoted) post is nothing like what you said or implied in your earlier post on which I commented. It could be what you meant to do, however. It makes perfect sense to me, but it's not what you said before at all.

Outside Grand Slams and end stages of 500+ tournaments, I would say you're likely correct.

From this post, I'd say you seem to understand "capping". From the one before, I would have said you don't.

Also, I never said anything like he should be on all of those winning dogs....I wasn't on them, so why should he have been? I was just pointing out that the ATP has tons of value for a guy like him (a guy that knows his crap).

[Hardcoar]

I think my statement was very intelligent indeed: A winning bet does not make a good bet.

If you feel that's in no way what you claimed or even implied then it makes me feel alot better.

I love your suggestion, by the by. You should have realized that by now from the points I was actually making...

Which of the three you mentioned were you on yourself?

[Dollars2Donuts]

I think my statement was very intelligent indeed: A winning bet does not make a good bet.

If you feel that's in no way what you claimed or even implied then it makes me feel alot better.

I love your suggestion, by the by. You should have realized that by now from the points I was actually making...

Which of the three you mentioned were you on yourself?

I think I mentioned that I was on none of them myself....in fact I lost on two of the three (not ML bets). I almost took the + games against Murray, but I was looking for more games than were offered. Again, if you check out my thread you will see that I do pick dogs, in fact that is generally my day to day focus.

I am not saying I am a great tennis capper, but I am 17-9-1 over the last 4 days and I can assure you that is a good representation of my winning percentage over the last 90 days in the ATP....I cap across many sports and am a high volume player....maybe a higher volume than you have ever seen....and because of that it may take a while to find the appropriate spots in my thread....

The only reason I posted here in the first place was that Dmoneytx and I have PM'd a little and I could see that he was frustrated....just trying to lend a good guy a hand.

[Hardcoar]

You did mention it, though I was writing at the same time you did.

You're constantly being overly defensive, by the way. I was only curious as to whether you hit any of the three bets mentioned. I don't doubt your proclaimed betting strategy. I never said or implied I did. The one thing I did doubt from your side is the notion that a winning dog is a good bet, but obviously that's doesn't reflect your opinion at all and was a misunderstanding on my part.

Do you have a tennis thread specifically?

[Dollars2Donuts]

You did mention it, though I was writing at the same time you did.

You're constantly being overly defensive, by the way. I was only curious as to whether you hit any of the three bets mentioned. I don't doubt your proclaimed betting strategy. I never said or implied I did. The one thing I did doubt from your side is the notion that a winning dog is a good bet, but obviously that's doesn't reflect your opinion at all and was a misunderstanding on my part.

Do you have a tennis thread specifically?

My apologies then.....the way it came across I did get my back up a little....

My thread is a multi-sport thread, encompassing the NHL, NBA, MLB and ATP (occassional WTA picks as well), as well as some MLS and the occassional bet from another sport.

[BrianLaverty]

...if you sat all day and bet EVERY dog on one side of the ML and EVERY favourite on the other side of the ML, I am 1000% sure that the dogs' ML finishes ahead of the faves ML....track it and see....but it won't even be close.

While thats true for the last 2 tournaments, its only because of the timing of the tournaments... Masters before Grand Slams are complete crapshoots and there are many huge dog winners.

But you are completely wrong about it being obvious for the whole season. My guess is that for the whole year, you will be close to even if you do this. If it was as easy as you say.. why not just put a set amount on every dog for the whole year. Obviously you will need a huge bankroll to deal with the swings, but put your money where your mouth is.

I think you should put 50 on every dog for the whole French Open... I think you will have a much different view of things after you see those results.

[Dollars2Donuts]

While thats true for the last 2 tournaments, its only because of the timing of the tournaments... Masters before Grand Slams are complete crapshoots and there are many huge dog winners.

But you are completely wrong about it being obvious for the whole season. My guess is that for the whole year, you will be close to even if you do this. If it was as easy as you say.. why not just put a set amount on every dog for the whole year. Obviously you will need a huge bankroll to deal with the swings, but put your money where your mouth is.

I think you should put 50 on every dog for the whole French Open... I think you will have a much different view of things after you see those results.

Thanks for your input BL, but if you read my post I said 'dog ML would beat the Favourite ML, but STILL LOSE'.

There is no need to put my money where my mouth is, as I didn't state that was a way to make any money.....I am sure it was just an oversight on your part when you read it.

Again, I do put my money where my mouth is every single day, as I post every bet prior to game time and post every result afterwards....

[Dmoneytx]

Hey D....

Maybe I should have PM's you about this, but with your knowledge of tennis.....well, I think you are going about this entirely the wrong way. I hope I do not offend you....that is certainly not what I want to do.

I believe there is SOOOOO much value in finding dogs that are heavily undervalued. Betting these big faves is a sure fire way to....well, to tread water. You have the knowledge and when I see you write about a guy who is +400 and who will make it a close match....should your money not be going on that guy at +4.5 or +5 games? Maybe a small portion as well onto the ML.....

I think you know your shit....but I think you could be KILLING the other side of things.

D2D

Hey D, ya a PM might of been better bec that post stirred up some of the critters out of the woodwork. It is really NOT a big deal though man. I think SOME people (like KAMI) don't understand that I am NOT a professional handicapper. Or why this thread even exists. That is CLEARLY stated in the very first post in this thread. I post these plays online bec it gives ME a better perspective and line of sight of what I am doing in the tennis portion of my gambling. I love tennis. I play a high level. I know way too much about the players on tour. I am not running this thread to make sure the general public has my plays to tail the night before or 8 hours before a match. If I happen to help some people with a selection or if I can answer a question (when I have time), then that makes me happy
Sometimes I have NO time to do this & it reflects with posts going up 5 mins before a match, 50 mins before a match & sometimes I never get them on here. Like today, I had Gulbis in 3 parlays for tonight. I had no time to even post I liked dumb azz Gulbis. This weekend, I am the #1 seed in Waco (ya'll don't believe me, go to usta.com, look up Texas secion & mens 4.5 singles for Waco..........that's me). So I have been getting to sleep early, training & tired as fuk when I get home to take care of the kids.

SO, with that being said, I do understand what you are trying to say D. For sure. But I find it kind of FUNNY, more than you would think, bec when my thread this year was up to almost +$2,000 there was NO one saying how my system was crappy & etc, etc...... I doubt KAMI even knows that last year I put 700-800 wagers or something crazy for tennis & ended up the year in the FUKKING positive!!! I laugh to myself when I see people say how bad my wagering is, but it has ONLY come at this time the last 2 weeks on my cruddy streak and not once over the past 18 or more months!! D, I do find that amusing. For real

I know my system does not appeal to a lot of people. I also made some big bets bec I was KILLING basketball for awhile there! I had a lot of money to toss. Getting back to normality, things will go back to semi-normal for me. I know people do not like (or are maybe too scared) to bet those high chalks continuously. I don't know. All I know is that last year, for 750 bets or so, I was a winner. This year, I was up to almost 2 grand & no one said a word. I don't really care if my system does not appeal to some people, this is my thread and my plays. Just like your thread. I put my fing money every damn day where my mouth is. Some days I kill em, sometimes I hit a garbage streak like this. I just know in all my years of gambling, the crappy streak doesn't stick around too long

I wish you the BOL D2D, in all sports, all wagers, always. Take care

[gators0708]

You'll start winning dont worry! Good luck in Waco this wknd!!

[Dollars2Donuts]

You'll start winning dont worry! Good luck in Waco this wknd!!

I agree on both accounts! I just meant that I would love to see some dogs from you!! You know so much bout the game that I am missing out on.

Anyway, get to bed and kill it over the next few days....

[Hardcoar]

...

Outside Grand Slams and end stages of 500+ tournaments, I would say you're likely correct.

...

^^^

[Dmoneytx]

I hope ev1 has been doing well I am in Waco playing a tment & I just had to post this up. Early match for me, routine starts now! Semis at 8am. I was going to get started again next week at the tment in Germany, hopefully getting back to my norm (or better, expectations are always high). But when I talked to my buddy Demon, I kept thinking about this play & couldn't really pass it up to play on. I am hoping to start the day up a little bit to get things rolling. So, I am posting this one play for Sunday & then will get into things again tomm for the Mon morning matches. Oh, Kami, feel free to deposit whatever you like and fade this play sir. Whichever side anyone takes, I wish ya'll luck!!! VAMOS!!!



5/18
Nadal -435
Williams S -420

Total = apprx -191
2.5u / 1.31u



*This could possibly be my last wta play for awhile. But I have said before, I would take Sarena from time to time bec she plays like a damn man for sure. Take her down Sarena! USA!!!


PS. I never addressed this, but this is solely for KAMI.... Why would a $500 parlay be "epic" (as you stated) for me, when I have shown tickets on my site of basketball straight wagers of almost $1,000??? Dude, I bet $500 plenty in spots that I really like. As I have PROVEN, I have bet towards a thousand and well more. I just thought that was funny bec you thought a $500 bet was "EPIC"!! Ya know, it might be to you if you are betting $15 a game or something. But there are some of us, and a TON that wager a lot more than my small azz, that bet amounts like I do. 500 epic??? LOL, that really was funny. Thanks for the laugh

[Hardcoar]

FK 'em up D-Mo!

[Dmoneytx]

FK 'em up D-Mo!

Thanks Hard!! BOL to you as well today sir, hope you tear em a new one

That avitar cracks me up man! LMFAO!!!

[Hardcoar]

I know I was just laughing my ass off when I found it.

I guess he wanted to give the French(men) something to jack off to huh?

[Demonata]

I hope ev1 has been doing well I am in Waco playing a tment & I just had to post this up. Early match for me, routine starts now! Semis at 8am. I was going to get started again next week at the tment in Germany, hopefully getting back to my norm (or better, expectations are always high). But when I talked to my buddy Demon, I kept thinking about this play & couldn't really pass it up to play on. I am hoping to start the day up a little bit to get things rolling. So, I am posting this one play for Sunday & then will get into things again tomm for the Mon morning matches. Oh, Kami, feel free to deposit whatever you like and fade this play sir. Whichever side anyone takes, I wish ya'll luck!!! VAMOS!!!



5/18
Nadal -435
Williams S -420

Total = apprx -191
2.5u / 1.31u



*This could possibly be my last wta play for awhile. But I have said before, I would take Sarena from time to time bec she plays like a damn man for sure. Take her down Sarena! USA!!!


PS. I never addressed this, but this is solely for KAMI.... Why would a $500 parlay be "epic" (as you stated) for me, when I have shown tickets on my site of basketball straight wagers of almost $1,000??? Dude, I bet $500 plenty in spots that I really like. As I have PROVEN, I have bet towards a thousand and well more. I just thought that was funny bec you thought a $500 bet was "EPIC"!! Ya know, it might be to you if you are betting $15 a game or something. But there are some of us, and a TON that wager a lot more than my small azz, that bet amounts like I do. 500 epic??? LOL, that really was funny. Thanks for the laugh

Good Luck at the tournament man. Is it just you or is your girl playing also? Yea man when I was talking to you about that play I felt like it should hit easy. Best of luck to us. Serena has covered every single spread this tournament so she should definitely be able to just win haha. Nadal is in beast mode and should definitely beat Fed.

I know I was just laughing my ass off when I found it.

I guess he wanted to give the French(men) something to jack off to huh?

Tsongas such a clown. Epic avatar.

[Demonata]

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner.

[Dmoneytx]

There are two things that make me smile really big in the morning.........

1) I had a lot of sex the night before with my girlfriend
2) Demon sends me a text saying "complete dominance" when I had no clue who won today

In any event, looks like our only play in tennis today was an EASY freaking winner. Neither player was tested really and D was right, it was complete and total dominance. Kind of kicking myself bec I was thinking of going big big on this play and I only threw a cruddy 250 on it, ARG! A win is a win & I will take my profit to the nba game and hope to double up I hope ev1 was on this play, I just didn't see how any other scenario was going to be that easy.



*Hey Kami, how did fading me today go sir??? I hope you didn't deposit too much money (your words, not mine) to just "fade" away on my plays. I'm sure now I won't see you in my thread bec my losing streak is prob gone, LOL!!! That was so classic, deposit money just to fade me, smh..... How dumb do you really have to be to fade a guy who has been positive on all tennis plays over the last year and a half??? Good luck, bec in the long run fading me, you will lose sir, trust me... But good luck on that sir.

**I also want to address something that I never did when KAMI came in bashing me on my plays and my methods of picking my wagers. He made a big deal and some others (nicely commented - and I appreciated the kindness in which some of my friends gave me some advice, I am serious) about me not seeing "VALUE" in certain plays. Kami was saying I know all about these players, but don't see the value in an Anderson +140 or a Verdasco +150 or etc, etc..... I want to make it VERY clear to anyone who rolls thru my thread or tails my picks on a regular basis, I don't really look for "value" plays when I do tennis. Taking a "value" play to me, means that you THINK a player "could" win, but you take him bec "if" he does the payout or value is a good one. To me, that is not being a 100% confident that you think you are gonna win that play. I ONLY take players and match up my parlays on players that I think are gonna WIN regardless of what the line is!!! I really don't care if a player is -350 or -175 or -600 or whatever..... If I think the guy is gonna win his match, I take him. Period! I don't look for plays that "could" be a good payout if that players plays a really good match. I take players that I think are gonna freaking win period. I just wanted ev1 to understand why I make the plays that I do. I don't "hope" a guy is gonna win and I just can't pass a decent player up at a good value........... I take guys that I think are gonna WIN! Doesn't matter what the line is, that is where I work my magic on the parlays and get those tickets to cash hopefully! My method is simple and I will keep doing what I do. Ya'll just might see my plays up a bit earlier from now on I wish ev1 the BOL on all wagers, in all sports. Get those books to cash out! VAMOS!!!

[ohumad]

I think a lot of the guys think you should make more picks on players you THINK will win who are higher than +100 Dman. Anyhow good job this morning bud, and I'm talking about before the bets.

[gators0708]

Had the same exact parlay with Monfils in the challenger that he won, so good day for all. Lets get back to the winning ways!!

[Dmoneytx]

Had the same exact parlay with Monfils in the challenger that he won, so good day for all. Lets get back to the winning ways!!

Nice Gator!!! Hope you are doing well man

[Dmoneytx]

I really like Kubot today against Pella. If we look at both players and where they are right now this year, this is almost a middleweight versus a low middle to lightweight matchup IMO. Kubot has had an ok year bec the loses he did have were to mostly good players. And a lot of those matches were close. This will be Kubot's 4th clay tment in a row. He is 3-3 and his last loss was first round to Llodra in the 3rd set 5-7. The last tment he breezed thru qualies and lost first round to Mayer F in the 3rd set 5-7. I looked at his stats for those matches, usually 6 to 8 aces to just a few doubles. He is getting quite a few looks at break points on the guys ranked in the top 50 or better. He should have a lot of confidence today to really play well and have a GOOD opportunity to win this match and make a push this tment. The opposite is to be said about Pella. This is really seeing a struggling Pella, who is dropped down to Challangers, against a guy who I really think will play rock solid today and will be really hard to beat! Pella has played 3 clay tments in a row, all Challangers. He lost to DeSchepper first round last tment. Before that he lost to Vollandri 1-6 in the 3rd set. The Challanger before that he struggled to beat guys around 150 to 225 in tight tight 3 setters and then he lost Molchanov ranked #238.
This really sets up well for Kubot to win this match and move on this tment. Pick up some good prize money and some needed ATP points. I think he serves well, as he has been on the clay, and plays just too strong and too solid for Pella to hang in there. With that being said, I am taking Kubot @ -180. BOL to anyone who is on this play! This match is after the Kamke match, around an hour. VAMOS!!!

[Dmoneytx]

Play #1

Fognini -550
Triocki -420
Davydenko -185

Total = apprx +125

[Dollars2Donuts]

I think Davydenko has a tough time in this match.....I hve Bedene here with the +3 games....hope we can both win it!

[lucasdawg]

anyone think monfils will struggle?

[Dmoneytx]

anyone think monfils will struggle?

I think Monfils should win today. Giraldo did not impress me his last time out at all! If Gael plays smart, he will win I think.

[beefcake]

D money, get on those French WC frogs!!!

[Dmoneytx]

I think Davydenko has a tough time in this match.....I hve Bedene here with the +3 games....hope we can both win it!

Well, Davy usually takes care of the lower ranked opponents. Asides from the Challanger Bedene just played, he hasn't done anything that I saw on the clay. I hope we can both win it too D, BOL!!!

[Dmoneytx]

D money, get on those French WC frogs!!!

Definitely worth the look Beef!!! Thanks for the reminder

[davopnz]

fade ryan harrison.


will monfils care about this tourn? would expect him to be preparing for the french open...

[Brooklyn Dick]

Davydenko -185 Line now at -125. Could well be the old "Davy Dump". BE CAREFUL MY FRIENDS.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Davydenko -185 Line now at -125. Could well be the old "Davy Dump". BE CAREFUL MY FRIENDS.

He looked good in the frist set.....what a bastard....lol.

[Dmoneytx]

fade ryan harrison.


will monfils care about this tourn? would expect him to be preparing for the french open...

I have a thread that fades him every match he plays on the ATP level. This is his first one back in awhile.