Dmoneytx Daily Tennis Picks

Dmoneytx · 05-10-13, 01:50 PM

5/10

Play #1
Murray -125

Total = -125
2.5u / 2.0u

*I know a lot of people really like Berdych today. When you look at the scorelines, Murray is barely winning & Berdy looks to be winning much easier. A lot of people are thinking Murray doesn't care & is just going thru the motions. I was thinking the same thing actually, but then I started to look at the match stats for both. And I did watch part of the Murray match yesterday & when he got that break back in the second set, he was fired up!!! I knew he was gonna win from that spot on, I just knew it.
Murray is holding second serve a LOT better than Berdy & Murray should be returning so much better than his prev opponents. IF Murray wants to play hard today, he will give Berdy ALL he can handle today. People see the great value in Berdy, but I honestly feel that Murray decides he wants to make the finals here & he gives a big big effort. This will be a close match for sure, but expect Murray to really pull out of his funk today & to put serious pressure on Tomas serve, hoping for an early break in the first!
Whichever way ya'll go, best of luck! VAMOS Andy!!!

Dmoneytx · 05-10-13, 04:11 PM

LOL once again!!! Time for me to take a break ev1

I don't get a lot of responses anyways, so not a big deal really. I will be honest, clay court tennis is so unpredictable, it is getting boring to me to watch the better players just lose lose lose.... I might come back soon or after the French Open. What's funny is that I was about 95% sure that Nishikori was going to completely suck today after crushing me yesterday, LMAO!!! Easy win for Adujar really, I just have no interest in complete nobodies who have done absolutely nothing the entire year all of a sudden play like Gods on the clay and take out the best players in the world. No thanks.

Demonata · 05-10-13, 04:15 PM

I was on Berdych man so I couldn't repond lol.

steveq · 05-10-13, 09:58 PM

I may not speak it but u will be missed i look forward to your play bro

gators0708 · 05-10-13, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by Dmoneytx

LOL once again!!! Time for me to take a break ev1

I don't get a lot of responses anyways, so not a big deal really. I will be honest, clay court tennis is so unpredictable, it is getting boring to me to watch the better players just lose lose lose.... I might come back soon or after the French Open. What's funny is that I was about 95% sure that Nishikori was going to completely suck today after crushing me yesterday, LMAO!!! Easy win for Adujar really, I just have no interest in complete nobodies who have done absolutely nothing the entire year all of a sudden play like Gods on the clay and take out the best players in the world. No thanks.

Im taking a break as well, sometimes when things arent going your way its honestly good to take a few days/week off!

Dmoneytx · 05-13-13, 07:59 AM

It's hard to take too long of a break when you are a degenerate gambler, LOL!!! I will clean up my record from the shiit bomb at the end of last week. I have a few plays to put up now, matches should be a bit later bec of the ones in action right now. Looks like some blow outs all ready, so prob some good matches, 3 setters, coming up. Those will prob be all my plays this morning, lol, never a dull moment in my life. I'm getting back to the grind, get the overall back up!

Dmoneytx · 05-13-13, 08:11 AM

5/13

Play #1
Klizan -125
Jankovic -500

Total = +116
1.0u / 1.16u

*Klizan beat Montanes a few weeks ago 6-3, 6-4. I expect a tougher match today, but I will go with the high ranked, also a clay courter in Klizan for this match. Jankovic is 18-8 vs Pironkova who is 3-10 this year, I'll roll with Janko. BOL on this one, Klizan match still waiting to play.

Dmoneytx · 05-13-13, 08:59 AM

Play #2
Giraldo -105
Jankovic -500

Total = +134
1.0u / 1.34u

*Giraldo is 7-4 on clay, not counting the Challanger he won on clay a few months ago, but recent record. Janowicz is 1-3 this year on the clay, total. This is not his fav surface & if Santiago can get to the serve and make him rally the points, he can win this match. Janowicz is going to have to hit a bunch of winners, if he is off he will be 1-4, could be a really close match! Janko is 18-8 and Pironko is 3-10, speaks volumes. BOL on this one, Giraldo match still waiting to play as well.

Demonata · 05-13-13, 09:56 AM

Sup D. Kinda confused because Giraldo is playing Jankowicz? You put them both in the same parlay. lol

Hardcoar · 05-13-13, 10:18 AM

I think you're confusing Janowicz with Jankobitch.

Bet10Heinekens · 05-13-13, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Demonata

Sup D. Kinda confused because Giraldo is playing Jankowicz? You put them both in the same parlay. lol

Jelena Jankovic not Jerzy Janowicz

TankHankerous · 05-13-13, 10:37 AM

If only my local allowed tennis parlays.....

Demonata · 05-13-13, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by Bet10Heinekens

Jelena Jankovic not Jerzy Janowicz

Oh my bad.

Dmoneytx · 05-13-13, 12:07 PM

Yea, I had Jankovic WTA for both of those parlays. She won easy. But I was on the wrong side of BOTH of those fuckking coin flip matches. Both, LOL!!! I originally wrote down Jerzy today, when his line dropped and I saw he only has ONE win on clay all fing year, I went with the veteran Giraldo. What a mistake. Klizan wins the first set & like lately, he can't win the match. Start the day down 200, awesome.

DiggityDaggityDo · 05-13-13, 12:14 PM

You'll get it back, Dmoney.

Dmoneytx · 05-14-13, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

You'll get it back, Dmoney.

Thanks DDD, I sure as hell hope so!!! I usually pull out of a cold streak really well, I hope today to get it rolling! BOL to you sir

Dmoneytx · 05-14-13, 07:51 AM

5/14

Play #1
Wawrinka -285
Del Potro -620
Ivanovic -585

Total= apprx -125
1.5u / 1.26u

Play #2
Ivanovic -585
Gasquet -125

Total = apprx +110
1.0u / 1.10u

Dmoneytx · 05-14-13, 07:58 AM

Play #3
Cilic -165
Del Potro -620

Total = apprx -115
1.0u / 0.85u

gators0708 · 05-14-13, 08:44 AM

I have a bad feeling about Wawrinka today, good luck though!

Demonata · 05-14-13, 10:56 AM

Man D you can't catch a break.

Hardcoar · 05-14-13, 11:02 AM

Awwwww

Dollars2Donuts · 05-14-13, 02:14 PM

Hey D....

Maybe I should have PM's you about this, but with your knowledge of tennis.....well, I think you are going about this entirely the wrong way. I hope I do not offend you....that is certainly not what I want to do.

I believe there is SOOOOO much value in finding dogs that are heavily undervalued. Betting these big faves is a sure fire way to....well, to tread water. You have the knowledge and when I see you write about a guy who is +400 and who will make it a close match....should your money not be going on that guy at +4.5 or +5 games? Maybe a small portion as well onto the ML.....

I think you know your shit....but I think you could be KILLING the other side of things.

D2D

Hardcoar · 05-14-13, 03:49 PM

Betting positive game-capping is not "killing the other side of things", but he needs to go easier on the heaviest of favorites, I agree.

Demonata · 05-14-13, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Hey D....

Maybe I should have PM's you about this, but with your knowledge of tennis.....well, I think you are going about this entirely the wrong way. I hope I do not offend you....that is certainly not what I want to do.

I believe there is SOOOOO much value in finding dogs that are heavily undervalued. Betting these big faves is a sure fire way to....well, to tread water. You have the knowledge and when I see you write about a guy who is +400 and who will make it a close match....should your money not be going on that guy at +4.5 or +5 games? Maybe a small portion as well onto the ML.....

I think you know your shit....but I think you could be KILLING the other side of things.

D2D

He cant bet + or - games at his book.

kamikazeodds · 05-14-13, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

I believe there is SOOOOO much value in finding dogs that are heavily undervalued. Betting these big faves is a sure fire way to....well, to tread water. You have the knowledge and when I see you write about a guy who is +400 and who will make it a close match....should your money not be going on that guy at +4.5 or +5 games? Maybe a small portion as well onto the ML.....

I think you know your shit....but I think you could be KILLING the other side of things.

D2D

He knows his shit but he says WTA tennis is roulette which all of us agree and then adds Ivanovic on all parlays. Lolololo. Yesterday, the only dog heavily undervalued was Anderson but guess what? He picks Cilic. I can tell you for sure, he can't see 'hidden' things. I would make a new bankroll just to fade this guy, the only problem is he posts the plays 3 mins before the matches are starting.. so.. catch him if you can!

Hardcoar · 05-14-13, 05:43 PM

That's a bit harsh, but picking Ivanovic in that match at those odds is a bad idea I agree – especially in a parlay. Parlays are always bad ideas though...

I disagree about Anderson. I find no value in him and there is much better value in several other matches played earlier today.

kamikazeodds · 05-14-13, 05:47 PM

You'll say that I lost money following you and thats why I wrote this.. No sir.. I play my own thoughts

Accepted Decided Type Description WagerPrice Stake +/-
305105035-1
1 3:14pm 13-May-13 14-May-13 Tennis
Match Odds M. Cilic vs K. Anderson for Match. 2.570 140.00 219.80

* You better go get something good for your kids and stop throwing money away. Take it as an advice! Or at least post your plays earlier so we can follow ya

kamikazeodds · 05-14-13, 05:56 PM

Correct. Even if there are only 2 matches I can't make a parlay since I play mostly coinflips. We all have different thoughts about tennis matches but his choices are.. WOW.. He's in tennis for over 10 years and this is what he learned? I'm following this guy for a few months and let me tell you what. He's UNIQUE! The $500 parlay was epic

kamikazeodds · 05-14-13, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

I disagree about Anderson. I find no value in him and there is much better value in several other matches played earlier today.

Really? Maybe you haven't watched Anderson @Casablanca. And Cilic? His form in the last two weeks? I'm sorry but this is like an example of valuebet

ohumad · 05-14-13, 07:29 PM

I would also second the notion to try your hand at higher odds!

Originally posted by Hardcoar

That's a bit harsh, but picking Ivanovic in that match at those odds is a bad idea I agree – especially in a parlay. Parlays are always bad ideas though...

Originally posted by kamikazeodds

Correct. Even if there are only 2 matches I can't make a parlay since I play mostly coinflips.

Actually I wanted to start a thread to see how I would do with only parlays, so maybe I'll get that going

. I bet you could do it Hardcoar. Parlays in theory are more profitable if you are able to pick evens better than evens. There's definitely a sense that putting two pick ems in a parlay on the regular won't end well but I think it's possible.

Demonata · 05-14-13, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by kamikazeodds

He knows his shit but he says WTA tennis is roulette which all of us agree and then adds Ivanovic on all parlays. Lolololo. Yesterday, the only dog heavily undervalued was Anderson but guess what? He picks Cilic. I can tell you for sure, he can't see 'hidden' things. I would make a new bankroll just to fade this guy, the only problem is he posts the plays 3 mins before the matches are starting.. so.. catch him if you can!

Quit trollin and make a thread. Anybody can talk shit when they don't even have a thread of there own.

Hardcoar · 05-15-13, 05:55 AM

Originally posted by kamikazeodds

Really? Maybe you haven't watched Anderson @Casablanca. And Cilic? His form in the last two weeks? I'm sorry but this is like an example of valuebet

I did. I also saw the important matches since. Odds were fair in my mind. It's a good example of a winning bet though, I'll give you that!

Dollars2Donuts · 05-15-13, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Hey D....

Maybe I should have PM's you about this, but with your knowledge of tennis.....well, I think you are going about this entirely the wrong way. I hope I do not offend you....that is certainly not what I want to do.

I believe there is SOOOOO much value in finding dogs that are heavily undervalued. Betting these big faves is a sure fire way to....well, to tread water. You have the knowledge and when I see you write about a guy who is +400 and who will make it a close match....should your money not be going on that guy at +4.5 or +5 games? Maybe a small portion as well onto the ML.....

I think you know your shit....but I think you could be KILLING the other side of things.

D2D

So much value out there just this morning.....Chardy, Granollers, Janowicz....all pretty big dogs....I bet you (Dmoneytx) had some of those on your radar....I hope you don't mind me saying these things....

Hardcoar · 05-15-13, 10:29 AM

You need to understand that a high odds pick winning does not make it a value bet.

Dollars2Donuts · 05-15-13, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

You need to understand that a high odds pick winning does not make it a value bet.

Did anybody say that? I am lost....I said nothing of the sort. What I said is that there are MANY undervalued dogs out there.....and I think the best way to cap tennis is to find them....I am not sure how that doesn't make sense to you.....if you sat all day and bet EVERY dog on one side of the ML and EVERY favourite on the other side of the ML, I am 1000% sure that the dogs' ML finishes ahead of the faves ML....track it and see....but it won't even be close.

Now, don't get me wrong, you would still lose betting every dog, BUT, the key is identifying the dogs that the public has left a ton of meat on the bone.

If you want to see if I 'understand' capping, feel free to check out my daily picks....I would welcome your well thought out opinion there.