Montanes/Capdeville suspicious?

[Justin7]

My program flagged this game as "suspicious". Montanes opened as a -123 favorite, and went up as high as -190. In situations where the wrong guy is favored and it steams up, betting favs has done very well, even though the market looks wrong.

Is Capdeville hurt?

[runnershane14]

-175 at 5dimes
-163ish at betfair?

[runnershane14]

Montanes ranked #55 (#22 earlier this year) and Capdeville ranked #103. Montanes won in 2009 6-3, 6-4.

[Justin7]

-175 at 5dimes
-163ish at betfair?

It was -190/+165 at BetOnline... But Pinny Cris and Heritage are no longer dealing it.

[bigboydan]

Did you get anything down on this match Justin?

[Justin7]

Is it just me, or did Betonline take down most of the players again?

[Justin7]

Did you get anything down on this match Justin?

I passed.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pretty sure Capdeville is in here as a Lucky Loser replacing Davydenko - I think. Capdeville did not advance out of qualifying. Quite certain there is nothing fishy here, just simple market adjustment to the books setting a poor line on the replacement.

[runnershane14]

Thats what I am thinking as well Eagle. Although line going up at betfair, with not a lot of volume all of a sudden.

[VegasInsider]

Bet Islands has the match listed, just no odds yet.

I'll be keeping an eye out for it. Might be worth a play if they hang a decent line.

[Justin7]

Now -238/+208. If Capdeville is not hurt, this match is fixed. Based on recent form, I made Capdeville a small favorite... And the 12 midnight money is not public.

[EaglesPhan36]

Capdeville would not be a favorite to open. He's a Challenger level player whose only results on this surface have come against Challenger level players. Granted Montanes is not a major threat on hard courts, but he's still a superior player and would be the favorite any day of the week, any surface. He's had a poor year, but he's capable of winning on this surface - especially against this level of player.

Doubt you'll be able to gleam whether this is a fix or not by the play itself. The price is definitely out of control though. Injury would be my guess because neither of these guys is a known fixer. You can also consider that Cipolla beat him in straight sets in the last round of qualis in barely over an hour as an indicator perhaps of his form or lack thereof.

[Justin7]

I can't tell if this particular game is a fix... but in this class of matches, the results are staggering (achieving a -30% ROR vs closers betting my favored player, compared to a positive return normally). In this group of matches though, there is probably value chasing the steam.

[EaglesPhan36]

Certainly makes an otherwise dull match interesting.

[gators0708]

Well an easy win for Montanes 3 and 3 in under an hour...

[Inkwell77]

wow....
Not enough evidence to say fixed, but.....