Federer/Mónaco

[TomJSports]

Is there any possible way Fed loses to Mónaco?

[ANGRYBLACK]

Possible, yes. Probable, no. I got Monaco for the hell of it. 10/200.

[TomJSports]

Possible, yes. Probable, no. I got Monaco for the hell of it. 10/200.

Yeah, pretty much was eyeing a 'for the hell of it' bet, as well.

[Demonata]

I mgith bet on monaco. Would be a good win haha

[terpkeg]

I don't follow tennis closely so my opinion is not worth much here. But, from what I have seen Federer is not the same guy he used to be and +1925 seems high.

[EaglesPhan36]

Doesn't really matter what you think the price should be. There is no value if the favorite isn't going to lose. Federer has made the quarters in 29 straight Slams. This is Monaco's worst surface, although he is not horrible on it at times - Monaco +9 is not a bad idea, but the moneyline is just a dartboard shot. Also factor in the late night atmosphere. Even though Monaco is a vet, he's rarely been in this situation and definitely has few experiences of dealing with the real late start like tonight.

[MUHerd37]

Federer against Monaco? That's not even a shot in the dark.

[tevari]

literally, the only way you a monaco wager could win, is if you played at a 1 set book and roger breaks a bone or something after a set is over

[terpkeg]

Doesn't really matter what you think the price should be. There is no value if the favorite isn't going to lose. Federer has made the quarters in 29 straight Slams. This is Monaco's worst surface, although he is not horrible on it at times - Monaco +9 is not a bad idea, but the moneyline is just a dartboard shot. Also factor in the late night atmosphere. Even though Monaco is a vet, he's rarely been in this situation and definitely has few experiences of dealing with the real late start like tonight.

Federer against Monaco? That's not even a shot in the dark.

literally, the only way you a monaco wager could win, is if you played at a 1 set book and roger breaks a bone or something after a set is over

All good points EaglesPhan, but its all about the price to me. If Monaco can win this match 7% of the time, I want to be on this play. If he literally has no chance barring an injury to Federer, i am not into throwing away money. Just seems like the guy is playing good tennis.

So i guess you guys think the -2575 is short? Gives Fed 96.2% chance of win. Or you can take Federer -1.5 sets -965 (90.6%). How often does this go 5? I am not afraid of the juice if it's the right value play.

[EaglesPhan36]

See, this is just me but I don't get guys who get all caught up in the whole "this play could win X% of the time" so the +whatever price is the "right play" or the value play. There's always a chance that the underdog could score some once in a lifetime upset. I just don't think people should fool themselves into thinking this sort of play is anything but a fun play to see if maybe you can turn 10 bucks into a nice score. It's like putting $10 on a 100-1 shot at the horse track.

If you're wagering your normal unit size on this price, I think you're throwing money away ... but that's me.

[TomJSports]

If you're wagering your normal unit size on this price, I think you're throwing money away ... but that's me.

No kidding, you put five bucks, if anything just to laugh about it. I doubt Mónaco's family puts $50 on him to win.

[terpkeg]

See, this is just me but I don't get guys who get all caught up in the whole "this play could win X% of the time" so the +whatever price is the "right play" or the value play. There's always a chance that the underdog could score some once in a lifetime upset. I just don't think people should fool themselves into thinking this sort of play is anything but a fun play to see if maybe you can turn 10 bucks into a nice score. It's like putting $10 on a 100-1 shot at the horse track.

If you're wagering your normal unit size on this price, I think you're throwing money away ... but that's me.

That is how I need to operate to stay disiplined. I have been sports betting for about 10 years. I really feel like it has only been in the last year and a half that I have cleaned up a lot of my poor tendencies that cost me money like chasing and making action bets. Still have some hiccups, but trying to assign percentages to every play I make is going to help me be successful. Different than taking a flyer at the track because I am not going to the match with a set amount of money to use for entertainment purposes. Probably won't stay up to watch the whole thing anyway. I am not going to fool myself. I am sports betting foremost because I am a gambling addict. But, I actually think I can make money and my results the last year plus have been positive.

[EaglesPhan36]

I just think if you're trying to make money off this particular match, there are better options than taking a flyer on the Monaco ML.

[terpkeg]

If you're wagering your normal unit size on this price, I think you're throwing money away ... but that's me.

Also, I bet to win my unit size. Think it is better that way so I don't over value underdogs. I will lower my to win amount on big favorites at times, not because I do not think it is the right play, but just because the percentage of my bank roll at risk would be more than I am comfotable with.

To the point of the thread though, I respect your tennis opinions and you are probably right regarding the play. But I already made the wager, so no going back. Most likely can scalp off it live if Monaco can snag the first set.

[terpkeg]

Man, it is going to be a late one. If the women go 3, this thing might not even start till midnight.

[Gaskan]

Federer could always have a heart attack or maybe Monica Seles comes out of the stands and stabs him on a change over.

Point is you never know.

[Theboy1dur]

I don't know who said it.. Maybe it was in dlweavers thread. But, these forums are about gambling. Gambling for the most of us are to make money. As little or as much as it is based on our units. I see a few dog guys who are like 20-40 , and -4 units. I call that a skilled capper, but still a loser. cause after 60 bets, your still down money.

Betting fav's, or parlaying fav's wins money. dlweaver, just lost his shirt on a single bet, which he over bet on.

All the Tennis pro cappers on this forum provide nice input. However, tennis is not a sport to cap. it is a crapshoot. If I am wrong, someone please show me a winning capper. At least soccer has ties. You cant factor "retires" into capping.

Futures, However are the way to go in Tennis.

[Boxing Champ]

What about Over 28..games????

[Gaskan]

I don't know who said it.. Maybe it was in dlweavers thread. But, these forums are about gambling. Gambling for the most of us are to make money. As little or as much as it is based on our units. I see a few dog guys who are like 20-40 , and -4 units. I call that a skilled capper, but still a loser. cause after 60 bets, your still down money.

Betting fav's, or parlaying fav's wins money. dlweaver, just lost his shirt on a single bet, which he over bet on.

All the Tennis pro cappers on this forum provide nice input. However, tennis is not a sport to cap. it is a crapshoot. If I am wrong, someone please show me a winning capper. At least soccer has ties. You cant factor "retires" into capping.

Futures, However are the way to go in Tennis.

i agree on your point about betting fav's wins $$$, but it has to be done in moderation. There is a sweet spot between -150 and -300 where you can cap the players to a high percentage where the match ups are favorable.

[Gaskan]

Wow!!! Fed looks like it's 2004 out there. Just ripping everything and dancing around the court effortlessly.

[EaglesPhan36]

He should, it's Juan Monaco after all. Of course he looked like that most of a set against Giraldo and then lost focus.

[Theboy1dur]

Fed .. in all black. I like it. He is telling people out there, that they think he is dead. But he is out to prove them wrong.

[iceminers26]

Possible, yes. Probable, no. I got Monaco for the hell of it. 10/200.

got same play, my angle was a small, nothing serious injury that would force Feds to retire.... not looking good