AzNDooM Tennis Bets 2011 (Australia) - All about the numbers

[AzNDooM]

I am creating my own thread as being on the SBRForum for the past 3 years, I have learned alot from alot of experienced punters and felt it was my time to give back to all the rookies who come into threads and are not sure on who to follow or what information to read etc...
Hence, my resume is for the past 2 years, have had +ve outcomes on returns and had been one of the Rookies trained by Lakerboy, Lyon0804, MexicanStallion, Dexter, DennisGreen, Ben Semaan, LakerCrazy (veterans in the trade).
What to know about me is that im all about the numbers. Although there are times I play Sharp angles, majority of my style is based on formulas and stats/trends. I spent alot of time arbitaging however in the end it was just way too time consuming and hence have stuck to formulas I have devised personally and stats etc...

In anycase, this is the start of my journey, another reason why im also starting for this thread is I am looking for people who want to work together to try to improve on gains and hit KPI's inregards to returns. (Similar to a Finanical Planner or Traders, where they try to perform to ensure yearly gains). Hence, if anyone thats from Australia and wants to begin a team for Tennis punting, by all means feel free to msg me.

AzNDooM TENNIS REC2011: 0-0-0
20/02/2011
=========================
1st Play - Svetlana Kuzentsova 3.25 (1x)

I have to play Svetlana Kuzenstova as I feel shes been in recent form and her opponents she has faced in the WTA Dubai has been decent. Although Caroline Wozniacki is heavily favourite being ranked 2nd seed and will most probably win, the value for money and edge is definitely on Svetlana. There heads up performance is 3-2 (Caroline Wozniacki) and there last two 3 contests, 2 of the 3 games went into 3 sets. In addiiton, Wozniacki can easily get rattled if losing a tie breaker (example - Na Li fighting back from Match point in Aus Open) and I see that possibly happening with these two coming up tonight for the finals. In addition, I think Kuznetsova keeps it close as she has more experience and has proven she can win with 13 Carrier Singles Titles.
A consideration bets to consider is 2-1 set betting Kuzenstova or the OVER +21 however I have opt to go the 3.25.
In anycase, my percentage of Kuznetsova winning has been set at 47% giving only a slight edge to Wozniacki.

[Raider3]

Good luck with your thread

[AzNDooM]

Good luck with your thread

Thanks

[shari91]

Best of luck

[AzNDooM]

2) Robin Soderling 2-0 Set Win 1.70 (1x)
Soderling is ranked number 4 for a reason and I think he gets the job done tonight. He hasnt won many titles and I think he will be adding this to his career wins as hes been on a tear since late last year. Cilic, has had his ups and downs and I think his inconsistency will be shown here when playing Soderling. Hence, backing 2-0 even though Cilic use to be a former top 10 player, I cant see him getting the job done against one of the up and comers.

[AzNDooM]

Best of luck

Thanks Shari.

[Stacocakes]

Best of luck.Will follow your thread

[AzNDooM]

Not the best way to start, 0-2-0 (-2x). Anycase, Live to fight another day. Have to go with Milos Raonic vs Andy Roddick. Although Roddick is a proven top 10, I just cant deny the value here for Milos. This Canadian kid is proving to be the real deal and think he will be one of the premier elites. Although the percenage of winning is 33%, I still like the value for money. Thus will be placing the following bet

Milos Raonic - 2.85 (1x)


In addition, have updated my starting rec. Bad start, but hey gotta take the losses with the wins.
Record for 19/02/2011
================
0-2-0 (-2.0x)

Milos Raonic - 2.85 (1x)

[ACoochy]

Took Raonic at $3.10 (5dimes) before seeing this. Great value imo...GL Doomy

[AzNDooM]

Another loss, sigh took him to 3 sets but thats part of the game. ANycase will update records soon and will still stick to the numbers.

[spongerat]

so you like playing the value dogs it seems? how do you use the number in tennis? You seem to be more of a trend, situational capper because I don't see any real stats. Btw 2.85 isn't good enough value for someone 33% to win. anyways, good luck

[AzNDooM]

so you like playing the value dogs it seems? how do you use the number in tennis? You seem to be more of a trend, situational capper because I don't see any real stats. Btw 2.85 isn't good enough value for someone 33% to win. anyways, good luck

I acutally use statistics over and yes its not but I still saw value as the value should be at least 3-1 for 33%. Regardless, I still chose and it was a close match. However, appreciate the feedback.

[AzNDooM]

21/02/2011 0-3-0 (-3x)

4) 3% value in betting on Phillip Petzschner 2.03 (1x)
to Win over Andreas Seppi.

[spongerat]

ya sorry I'm sure you were aware of that. What are the main stats you use? I don't know enough about tennis betting and I'd always like to know more, I consider myself a stat capper too

[noober]

interesting how u come with exact numbers. can u explain?

[MexicanStallion]

Best of luck with your tennis season. I don't know a whole lot about tennis, so I can't offer any advice.

[AzNDooM]

Best of luck with your tennis season. I don't know a whole lot about tennis, so I can't offer any advice.

Thx alot Mex and all good. Im not the best either, but im learning the sport as I go. Its all about numbers for me at the moment. Ill be listing the stat plays later on.

[AzNDooM]

John Isner 2-0 set betting 1.47 (1x)

[AzNDooM]

22/02/2011
============
AzNDooM 1-4-0 (-2.97x)

Having a bad start to the week but guess its a learning curve. Anyways trucking on, not going to let it discourage me and keep grinding it. Have finally finalised my AuS Stats Model for Tennis, and plays are as follows:

Phillip Kohlschreiber (Win) 2.40 (1.0x)
my model has P.Kohlshreiber to win at 55.87%. Hence, he should be favourite going into this battle.Keep in mind that this is purely statistical, the books have probably made the adjustments due to Troicki's form and his improved rankings. Although I am a big fan of Troicki, I gotta stick w/ the numbers as this is what this thread about.

[AzNDooM]

Nikolay Davydenko (Win) - 1.40 (1.0x)
85.28% chance of winnning.Thus edge is 18% without trend adjustments. (Davvydenko is not in form, but at this much edge will take him to win).

[AzNDooM]

Michael Llodra (Win) 8.00 (0.5x)
Novak is in form and has recently won the Australian Open however he has been known to drop games in other ATP Tours. The System has Llodra a 24.47% chance of winning, hence easily a justifiable bet to place at 8.00. Although he will probably lose, there is value in this bet.

[AzNDooM]

Nikolay Davydenko (Win) - 1.40 (1.0x)
Michael Llodra (Win) 8.00 (0.5x)
Phillip Kohlschreiber (Win) 2.40 (1.0x)

2-1-0 (+1.3x)
===========

OVERALL

3-5-0 (-1.67x)

[AzNDooM]

Jie Zhang (Win) 5.65 (0.5x)
Have to take advantage of this as she only has a 26.13% chance of winnign (which the odds should be offered at about 4.00), hence my book is offering it at 5.65 and have to take it at this as its great value as it gives me a 10% edge.

[AzNDooM]

10) Kaia Kanepi (Win) 1.78 (0.5x)
She has a small edge in my system at 57% chance of winning this match. Although the value isnt the best, it still a small edge at 4% of the odds I got it. Thus half a unit. Trend wise, im not a big fan, but staying to the numbers.

[AzNDooM]

11) Svetlana Kuznetsova (Win) 1.72 (0.5x)
Percentage of her winning is 58%. The value isnt very much at 3% edge. But nonetheless, its still a very very minor edge and thus will put a lay down small percentage to stay consistent with the stats system.

[AzNDooM]

12) Jarmila Groth (Win) 1.65 (1.0x)
Normal Systems have her winning at 54%-57%, however with a modified trend filter I have found she actually has a whopping 88% chance of winning (based on adjustments). Thus, this is something I think the books missed and am going to have to lay it on Groth inregards to this game. The AUS Girl is the real deal and has had a great start to the year.

[AzNDooM]

13) Somdev Devvarman (+6.5) 1.65 (0.5x)
I always hate betting against the former number 1 ranked player Roger Federer but I cant deny the value in this play. This is played in Dubai where heat is a factor hence, Somdev will have a slight edge in conditioning in playing form for this weather.Although Roger Federer has a 85.23% chance of winning, however, with the +6.5 games to cover, that will be going to be tough, especially since he hasnt played since the Australian Open. I expect him to drop a few games to get his rythm back with the cover, hence playing this for the small value that it has. The better play would be the 14.00 for Somdev to win, however I would prefer the cover as trying to meet my KPI for the week.

[AzNDooM]

ya sorry I'm sure you were aware of that. What are the main stats you use? I don't know enough about tennis betting and I'd always like to know more, I consider myself a stat capper too

I use a model thats very similar to ESPN's accuscore. It's a variety math formulas we use and probability theory based on game play over time. I spent about a year building it so yeah its been working out very much. Ive applied it to NBA and NHL so far but will be planning to do so with MLB and NFL. However, those have a bit other factors involved such as home field advantage, injuries etc... so Tennis was much easier as its an independent sport. The variables are much easier to control and not much influence, hence the model is more relevant to tennis and im hoping it will be more accurate as well.

[AzNDooM]

10) Kaia Kanepi (Win) 1.78 (0.5x)
She has a small edge in my system at 57% chance of winning this match. Although the value isnt the best, it still a small edge at 4% of the odds I got it. Thus half a unit. Trend wise, im not a big fan, but staying to the numbers.

Game has been voided, as she is not playing. Thus this will be moved as a push on my record.

[AzNDooM]

9) Jie Zhang (Win) 5.65 (0.5x)
10) Kaia Kanepi (Win) 1.78 (0.5x) - PUSh as she did not play
11) Svetlana Kuznetsova (Win) 1.72 (0.5x)

OVERALL
3-7-1 (-2.67x)

[AzNDooM]

14) Daniela Hantuchova (Win) 3.40 (1.0x)

[AzNDooM]

15) Kevin Anderson (Win) 1.35 (3.0x)
92.13% chance hes going to win straight up, have to hammer this while its good.

16) Kevin Anderson 2-0 (Set Betting) 1.85 (1.5x)
78.45% chance he will win this in 2 sets. Thus, good value for money.

[AzNDooM]

17) Kei Nishikori 2-0 (Set Betting) 2.10 (1.0x)

[AzNDooM]

18) Mikhail Youzhny 1.63 (1.5x)
70.45% chance he will take this with ease. Hence, have to follow the trend even though Simon Gilles is in form.

19) Mikhail Youzhny 2-0 (Set Betting) 2.40 (1.0x)

[betme]

15) Kevin Anderson (Win) 1.35 (3.0x)
92.13% chance hes going to win straight up, have to hammer this while its good.

16) Kevin Anderson 2-0 (Set Betting) 1.85 (1.5x)
78.45% chance he will win this in 2 sets. Thus, good value for money.

I hammered Anderson with ya.. hope those pct% show up today )