Picking Off The Top Seeds

**Optional** · 02-06-11, 05:43 PM

1st Round Matchups

Soderling -426 v Robin Haase +400

Haase lost 7-6 6-4 to Robredo in the 1st round here last year. He is 7-3 indoors since Oct 2010, losing to Djockovic, Wawrinka and Zverev. Highest ranked player he won against was Isner. So far this year he has played 3 hard courts, losing to Wawrinka in the QF at Chennai, Isner R16 at Auckland and to Roddick in 3R Aussie Open.

Don't think Haase is without a chance, but Soderling is strong on the surface and in good form, so hard to go against him here?

Verdasco -1000 v Rajeev Ram +733

Since winning this tournament last year Verdasco has gone 2-5 in 5 indoor tournaments, losing in the first round at very short odds 3 times, and in the 2nd round the other 2. He lost first round in Brisbane this year on hard, before losing at his first real testing match against Berdych at the Aussie Open.

Ram looks like he deserves his 188 ranking based a quick look at his stats, but on a positive note, Indoors is his best surface, and at their only previous meeting (in 2006) Ram took the first set before Verdasco won it in 3. His best indoor results last year were R16 at St. Petersburgh and SF in a challenger event.

Don't really know if it's a good bet or not, but if Verdasco is as under-priced as he appears to me it's hard to resist a bit of +733 on Ram?

Will have a closer look at the other 3 a bit later.

**erkanua** · 02-06-11, 05:51 PM

I can't agree with being against Soderling. I think he has a great chance to win this tournement.

**benrama** · 02-06-11, 05:58 PM

Ram was playing doubles late yesterday in Johannesburg and would have then had to catch a plane to San Jose. Suffice to say I don't like his chances of beating Verdasco.

**Optional** · 02-06-11, 06:07 PM

@erkanua Think you misunderstood me. I was leaning Soderling above, plus they aren't picks yet. Just me trying to get some helpful input on if/when to bet against these top seeds. (like you gave)

@benrama Thanks! great info. I'll stay away. Suspect I will get a chance to take a shot at Verdasco before this one is over anyway.

**erkanua** · 02-06-11, 06:47 PM

Oh, I see

At first, I just looked at the title and the last sentence in which you mentioned "hard to go against him", thought you made irony

**benrama** · 02-07-11, 04:41 AM

No problem mate, I was hoping the Verdasco line would be at least parlay friendly but the books have clearly factored in Rams travel fatigue factor as well.

**Optional** · 02-07-11, 09:34 PM

Looks like a no play for the opening matches in the 2 women's tournaments too?

Zvonerava -1200 v Tamira Paszek +894

Clijsters -3333 v Kristina Barrois +1050

Almagro will play one of two home town wildcards first up in Brazil. Souza or Clezar.

**beefcake** · 02-07-11, 09:57 PM

Phau is going to give Leyton fits!

**Optional** · 02-07-11, 10:02 PM

I hope you're wrong, as an Aussie.

**turnip** · 02-08-11, 02:39 AM

It's my opinion that Barrois has a ~6% chance to stun Kim & the world. If you have access to the pinnacle line of Barrois +1650 that's not a bad bet. But at +1050 it's a terrible one.

**AbleFollow** · 02-08-11, 04:26 AM

not bad record... good luck. It's difficult to earn good profit with such strategy in WTA tour

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 02-08-11, 04:32 AM

The problem with big dog betting in tennis is that the juice is overly loaded on them by pinnacle - I have all their tennis odds ever made, and the higher the odds, the lower the return.

At least, that's with atp. Dunno about wta, though it's probably the same.

**rickosu** · 02-08-11, 05:42 AM

does anyone know why the rescheduled the verdasco match for tomorrow? i was about to load up on him but they took it off the board

**mukas pukas** · 02-08-11, 12:33 PM

I actually like Haase's chances against Soderling. Big serve, has played well lately, and he's on his home turf, which never fails to affect a tennis match. Soderling is one of the best in the game. That said, he was bounced by Dolgopolov in the Aussie, who has some skill, but shouldn't have been able to win that against a more talented, more experienced Robin.

I like Baghdatis to give Murray a run for his money. He's a strong player with a round game and has plenty of big wins in his career to make this upset possible. Murray's issue is not skill but focus and after losing in the final of last year's Aussie, he went on a bit of a tail spin and was bounced in the 2nd round of his next tourney.

Verdasco will not lose this match. He could have the flu and likely win.

**mukas pukas** · 02-08-11, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by Optional

1st Round Matchups

Soderling -426 v Robin Haase +400

Where exactly are you getting such great lines? I can't find anything close to that

**Optional** · 02-08-11, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by mukas pukas

Where exactly are you getting such great lines? I can't find anything close to that

I used the prices quoted for Pinny at tennisexplorer.com but didn't double check they were correct. They were very early too.

I liked Haase too. But Soderling looked 2 classes better today. Glad I left it.

**Optional** · 02-08-11, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by turnip

It's my opinion that Barrois has a ~6% chance to stun Kim & the world. If you have access to the pinnacle line of Barrois +1650 that's not a bad bet. But at +1050 it's a terrible one.

I can get her at +2000 on Betfair. But I'm not just looking for value (although that is my usual strategy), I'm primarily trying to find the best opportunity to bet against the #1 seed once per tourney.

20/1 for a 6% chance is a good bet, but I think I'm looking for something better than 6% true odds for this.

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

The problem with big dog betting in tennis is that the juice is overly loaded on them by pinnacle - I have all their tennis odds ever made, and the higher the odds, the lower the return.

At least, that's with atp. Dunno about wta, though it's probably the same.

I get what you mean. And I hate just ignoring that factor normally, but am thinking if average odds turn out to be +300 I only need to get 1 in 4 correct to break even. Am I really on a -EV path with that thinking though?

I'm also thinking I will usually be able to get better than book odds at Betfair on anyone against a top seed.

**Optional** · 02-08-11, 08:06 PM

Today's Matchups

Soderling -454 v Philipp Kohlschreiber +333

PK is 4-0 H2H over Soderling, but they have never played on this surface, which PK is kinda awful on historically. No play there?

Almagro -555 v Joao-Olavo Souza +462

Souza made 2 challenger finals on clay in the 2nd part of last year. Winning 1. And disposed of his first round opponent 7-5 6-1, and is probably not without a chance, but think I'll just watch this one, and the Volandri v Machado match, to decide if there's a play against Almagro in the next round.

Zvonareva -5000 v Nungnadda Wannasuk +1900

Don't think I'll even bother to look at those odds.

**Optional** · 02-10-11, 10:19 AM

I'm thinking about taking my first shot today, pending anyone talking me out of it during the day.

Verdasco -185 v Ivo Karlovic +160

Karlovic is 3-0 over Verdasco on faster surfaces, and has gone in as favorite each of those times. This surface is supposed to be super quick. Verdasco has only played 20% of his lifetime matches indoors/grass whereas Karlovic chooses those faster surfaces 40% of the time. I also thought Verdasco got flustered/frustrated very quickly when Ram tested him for a short period during the match yesterday.

Does anyone know why Karlovic didn't play the second half of last year? Can't see any record of an injury.

Also for consideration today if anyone wants to share an opinion;

Almagro -515 v Rui Machado +410

Machado is best on clay, and 2010 was his best year on the surface with 2 challenger titles. His biggest scalp was Dodig in the French Open. He soundly beat Volandri 6-2 6-1 in the first round here. I'm leaning toward a set bet on 2-1 Almagro.

Zvonareva -357 v Shuai Peng +322

Anyone think Peng has much chance here?

**Optional** · 02-10-11, 08:13 PM

Karlovic +175 to win 4u
Karlovic/Cilic/Zvonreva +384 to win 6u

Tomorrow I am leaning toward taking Dokic +600 over Clijsters in Paris QF.

Soderling is to face Youzhny in Rotterdam QF, which might be another chance...

And Almagro will face Chela in the Brazil SF.

**Optional** · 02-11-11, 03:25 AM

Karlovic chokes on serve at 5-5 in both sets... pretty much the exact opposite of what I expected.

0-1 -3.9 units.

I think I will have a small go against Clijsters, on Dokic and 3 sets.

**nathan.thomasson** · 02-11-11, 03:39 AM

Originally posted by Optional

Zvonareva -357 v Shuai Peng +322 Anyone think Peng has much chance here?

It's a bit late now but I took Peng with the 5.5 game handicap. Theres no way that Zvonareva should be favoured that much after almost going to a tiebreak with the 400+ player yesterday.

Originally posted by Optional

Tomorrow I am leaning toward taking Dokic +600 over Clijsters in Paris QF.

I also like Dokic but with the 5 game handicap. Clijsters is still having mental lapses and she dropped a set 6-2 yesterday. I can't see Dokic winning but she can definately make it close and take a set if Clijsters can't keep her mind in the match. Dokic is also playing pretty good tennis after taking down Safarova and Petrova in the first 2 rounds.

**Optional** · 02-11-11, 05:54 AM

Peng +5.5 sounds like the obvious bet in hindsight. Congrats.

Agree with all on Dokic/Clijsters. 3 set match is only being offers at +100 so far on betfair, but think something over +300 might come up before match time. All I can get elsewhere is Dokic to win 1st set +433.

**Optional** · 02-13-11, 07:10 PM

Raonic +215 to win 10 units

**Optional** · 02-13-11, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Targets For This Week

Rotterdam - Robin Soderling
San Jose - Fernando Verdasco
Paris - Kim Clijsters
Brazil - Nicolas Almagro
Pattaya - Vera Zvonareva

Soderling wins
Amalgro wins
Hit Raonic +215 over Verdasco in final +6.1 units
Missed Kvitova +345 over Clijsters in final
Missed Hantuchova +350 over Zvonareva in SF

1-1 +6.1 for the week

**Optional** · 02-13-11, 11:11 PM

Targets for Week starting Feb 14th

Memphis - Andy Roddick
Marseille - Robin Soderling
Buenos Aires - Nicolas Almagro

Dubai - Caroline Wozniacki
Memphis - Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova
Bogota - Julia Gorges

**Optional** · 02-14-11, 05:08 AM

Krajicek +255 over Zahlavova-Strycova to win 4 units
Krajicek/Mayer/Chela/Kuznetsova/Goerges +632 to win 6 units

**Optional** · 02-16-11, 08:12 AM

Bullseye with that one. +10 units.

Upcoming matches

Roddick -294 v Tipsarevic +259
Soderling -588 v Mahut +498
Almagro -345 v Mayer +296
Wozniacki -770 v Chakvetadze +623
Goerges -625 v Han +523

Chakvetadze has taken Wozi to 3 sets each of the three times they have played. And she won 2 titles on the surface last year (1 ITF, 1 WTA). Wozi has only had the 3 'easy' Fed Cup matches since the Aussie open, and it's been windy in Dubai which I've seen Shari post is bad for Wozi usually. I am teetering at having a go, but mainly just because the price looks so good, anyone think she can actually win?

I'm kinda sorta thinking about Tipsy against Roddick too.

No play on the other 3 this round.

**Optional** · 02-16-11, 08:57 AM

Chakvetadze +750 to win 4 units
Chakvetadze/Hewitt/Fish +1153 to win 4 units
Chakvetadze +6 games/Hewitt/Fish/Tsonga/Goerges +386 to win 2 units

1.4 units total risk.

(the less confident I am, the more I lean on parlays to make up the 10 unit target)

**Gaskan** · 02-16-11, 09:40 AM

I like Tipsy against Roddick. Especially if Roddick plays like he did against Berankis.

**Optional** · 02-16-11, 10:25 AM

Did you watch it? Box score made it look like Roddick came back strong after the first set so I assumed he must have looked ok. I was going to bet on 3 sets there, so didn't think Barankis was without hope.

I decided Roddick was too good indoors, and Tipsy generally isn't, so left it. But could easily be talked into having a lash if there is any reliable info that Roddick isn't looking good.

**Optional** · 02-18-11, 05:18 AM

Originally posted by Optional

Chakvetadze +750 to win 4 units
Chakvetadze/Hewitt/Fish +1153 to win 4 units
Chakvetadze +6 games/Hewitt/Fish/Tsonga/Goerges +386 to win 2 units

-.4 units

Greek graded the ML bet as a push, 5dimes graded the parlays as a loss.

Today I am going to have a shot at Soderling with Llodra. Mostly because I really liked the way Llodra played in 2 matches I watched from Rotterdam. But Soderling has been awesome so far this year, so I am only going small, with a bigger parlay.

Llodra +120 to win 2 units
Llodra/Almagro/Wozniacki/Stosur +378 to win 8 units

**saints1856** · 02-18-11, 10:58 AM

I bet Soderling... hard to bet against a guy playing so well...

**Optional** · 02-19-11, 02:39 AM

-3.78 units for that one.

Originally posted by saints1856

I bet Soderling... hard to bet against a guy playing so well...

His 20-2 record this year is so good, it almost feels like sitting at the roulette table after 10 reds in a row trying to resist going for black!

I might just take that loss and leave Marseille though. Only 'luck' will see any of the remaining 3 take him out now imho.

Roddick is another matter though, haven't seen the price yet but might have a swing with Del Potro in Memphis.

If Wawrinka gets through, will almost definitely take him against Amalgro in the Buenos Aires final.

If Kuznetsova makes the Dubai final against Wozi, I might have a shot there too.