U.S. Open Draw Discussion

**Tennis_Bettor** · 08-28-10, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by JNic

marchenko/cilic and ferrer/dolgopolov looks intriguing. both of these Ukrainians heavy chance to win.

also something to look out for, Andrey Golubev has one of the best kick serves in the game, the kicker to youzhny's one handed backhand out wide is going to be lethal. i haven't seen the odds but i strongly disagree with backing youzhny here

I agree with you.
The Ukrainians can win those matches.

Odds are pretty nice.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-10, 10:35 AM

I think if you're taking women's futures, you'd do yourself a disservice if you didn't play some long shots. Without Serena as most have said, it's really wide open. If you can find someone like a Wickmayer or Petrova say at +6000 who have pretty decent draws to making the QFs, you should be able to make a profit off your investments.

On Clijsters, I'm definitely not saying she is going to win, I'm saying though that her draw to the semis is the easiest of the any of the top seeds. So at +360, I think she is worth the investment because you're going to get dog prices against her all tournament and should have a hedge opportunity at a solid price when you think it's time to get out on her.

Right now, these are the futures I'm looking at with another day to chew on them.

Roddick +3000
Nadal +365
Murray +385

Clijsters +360
Wickmayer +6000
Venus +1300
Azarenka +1000

Will whittle it down to probably 4-5 total plays at most. Just my thoughts at the moment.

**Goat Milk** · 08-28-10, 02:14 PM

I'm not giving Roddick any chance. I was telling Staco yesterday that we should all agree on one future to come out of the djoker's draw because it won't be Novak for sure and probably not Roddick.

Guy doesn't have the mental strength anymore to compete at a small tournament, let alone a major. And in a best of 5, it could get real ugly real fast for Roddick.

**nocode1** · 08-28-10, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by fsfalcons

fish wins the mens draw fer sure

This is joke right?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-10, 04:13 PM

Disagree on Roddick. His fitness is the biggest issue, not mental toughness. I don't know that he'll be 100% just yet from the mono, but if he can avoid playing long matches early I think it will come down to Roddick, Fish or Djokovic in that quarter. Fish-Roddick QF would be awesome.

**Tennis_Bettor** · 08-28-10, 04:23 PM

what you think about Falla vs Dent

I like falla He is playing a very good tennis at the moment. And Dent lost to robredo who cant win any matches on the hard court this seasson.

Because its a GS Dent needs to serve a lot if the match goes to 4th or 5th set. And this is a negative point for him.

**JNic** · 08-28-10, 04:41 PM

falla, but i'm not that confident in it. dent can get hot on serve and get through falla, i usually just avoid dent unless hes a big dog or a big favorite - then i fade him

**Goat Milk** · 08-28-10, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Disagree on Roddick. His fitness is the biggest issue, not mental toughness. I don't know that he'll be 100% just yet from the mono, but if he can avoid playing long matches early I think it will come down to Roddick, Fish or Djokovic in that quarter. Fish-Roddick QF would be awesome.

disagree 100%. I'll take Davy over both Fish and Roddick

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-28-10, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

disagree 100%. I'll take Davy over both Fish and Roddick

So will I given he will actually have to play decent to beat Belluci. An in form Davy will smoke those posers.

**JNic** · 08-28-10, 09:15 PM

i agree with you guys 100% on davydenko here, i watched him closely in cinci and he is back. beating ferrer, especially as an underdog (keep in mind the bookies set davydenko as favorite) always gauges where you are physically and mentally. his road to the 4th round won't be tough, sure gasquet is a problem and kevin anderson will pose as a threat again but he will be in the 4th round to face roddick

roddick is just overrated here imo and i really wish baghdatis was in monfils spot, because that would be a great dog in the 3rd round.

davydenko is ready for a run and nobody seems to trust him at the moment

**moiz615** · 08-28-10, 09:19 PM

sharapova will win the us open

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-10, 09:30 PM

I understand the hesitance on Roddick, it just seems to me that people don't tend to believe the mono excuse for his summer woes, but think he's just on the downward spiral. I just think the draw is good for him and if his fitness has returned close to 100% that he will go deep here. I think 4th round is his worst finish this year. His first two rounds are pretty simple. Third round MIGHT be Monfils and Monfils just isn't a factor on this surface right now. And Roddick has OWNED Davydenko. If there's someone similar that someone thinks will make the QFS up against Roddick, I'd be up for a SBR points bet on who will make it further. I take Roddick, you take .....

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-28-10, 09:37 PM

Davy is 70/1

Roddick is 30/1

Give me +233 and we have a bet.

**ochenta y cinco** · 08-28-10, 09:41 PM

Obviously it's rather easy for any player to be fired up for US Open matches, but the motivational factor for Roddick playing at Flushing Meadows is high IMO, and outweighs the argument about the mono effects on his health and fitness.

He won it in 2003 and made it as a finalist against Fed in 2006. Another deep run isn't out of the question for Andy... maybe not SFs deep, but he at least makes it through the 4th round and perhaps the QFs too.

Just my 2 cents.

**JNic** · 08-28-10, 09:43 PM

i got a really good feeling gimeno-traver will beat nieminen at +190, any thoughts on this? i know gimeno-traver is a clay courter but he has a big serve and his game is developing quick, he has consistency issues sometimes in rallies but he is a brilliant ballstriker and even though nieminen is the type to take balls early, i think gimeno-traver will love the pace here on the baseline. and gimeno-traver will get a lot more cheap points off the serve

**Goat Milk** · 08-28-10, 11:36 PM

Nieminen looked pretty solid a few days ago. Not sure about that match.

You know what I am absolutely shocked by?

Fukkin Malisse/Sela line. Wow, just wow. I love Sela, I was going to back him as a nice size dog, but I don't even know what to say about this line. Books are catching on

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-29-10, 12:38 AM

Given that Sela beat him this summer and Malisse's mystery retirement this past week, I think getting Sela at plus money period is pretty nice.

**Goat Milk** · 08-29-10, 01:49 AM

Malisse wanted to rest for the us open and Sela just had a great day there, but come on Malisse plays major tournys Sela is a challengers player. Why shouldn't we back Malisse at this price? Would back Sela if he were +220 or more at best.

**Art Vandelay** · 08-29-10, 02:05 AM

Fed, as Digger would say, is on "a mission". He hasn't had a great year but this would make it. Like Roger for the title in a future wager!

**jjgold** · 08-29-10, 05:25 AM

This year is one of the hardest years to predict winners

Its wide open and no one dominating

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-29-10, 06:03 AM

Gimeno has improved a lot, but he's normally absolutely hopeless on anything but clay. Also, R1 will be really hot and fast, although Nieminen isn't the biggest hitter.

**Goldman** · 08-29-10, 06:18 AM

Federer is gonna win it, at women Serena or Venus.

**jjgold** · 08-29-10, 07:15 AM

Goldman Serena is out with an injury

Fed has a decent shot as does Murray.

**Fthenorm** · 08-29-10, 11:09 PM

murray may finally beat fed in a slam....watch out for Aza and radwanska on the women's side

**jjgold** · 08-29-10, 11:15 PM

One of best events of year to watch

Going with Murray, Sharapova

**ringemup** · 08-29-10, 11:22 PM

djokovic hasnt done much recently but hes always a threat on hard court