Seppi match line change

**noober** · 07-22-10, 01:34 AM

i wouldn't go big on seppi as the two are pretty even

**jojo85** · 07-22-10, 02:37 AM

value on fognini then?

**JW Cash** · 07-22-10, 03:03 AM

Originally posted by CindyCryBaby

Line opened at -200 and has dropped all the way to -165. He is 4-0 against Fognini, including thrashing him on clay earlier this year (3,0). Seppi looked good enough in his match today, while Fognini hasn't looked the greatest in his two matches - struggling to hold serve in nearly every game. I wanted to make a big bet on Seppi here, but the line change scares me. Should I be concerned?

nothing is won with scared money......

of course you know that....

**JW Cash** · 07-22-10, 03:05 AM

Originally posted by jojo85

value on fognini then?

value is the most overrated term in sports investing

no one wins long term betting value or underdogs....just sayin...

**thirtytwo** · 07-22-10, 04:38 AM

seppi is a clown. making big bets on clowns are not recommended, they gonna make you suffer...

**jojo85** · 07-22-10, 04:56 AM

Originally posted by JW Cash

value is the most overrated term in sports investing

no one wins long term betting value or underdogs....just sayin...

underdogs no.
value yes.

probability theory disagrees with you.

**zafzaf** · 07-22-10, 05:02 AM

-210 right now

**Boner_18** · 07-22-10, 06:31 AM

Value is a good term as long as it is being used to refer to implied probability.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 07-22-10, 06:55 AM

Originally posted by JW Cash

no one wins long term betting value.

That's untrue by definition.

**TennisBabe** · 07-22-10, 08:54 AM

Never a doubt

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-10, 09:33 AM

About the only thing I have ever learned from gambling is go with your gut. If you have Seppi capped to win, don't let line movement screw with your head.

Tennis line movement of all sports is untrusting. If you see movement, go look on the reliable sites out there for injury info if that is a concern ... otherwise, line movement is just a small factor to consider I think. If anything if you see big movement and think twice about your pick, just skip it, definitely never switch to the other guy solely based on line movement.