TheJoke's tennis picks

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  • TheJoke
    SBR Rookie
    • 04-19-10
    • 30

    #1
    TheJoke's tennis picks
    Hi, I am new at the forum but have posted plays on several other forums before. I Specialize on the WTA but I will post plays from the ATP from time to time aswell.

    Here are my first plays:

    Hercog +125 2 units (Odds slashed now though)
    Hercog looks solid, great serve and moves well on the court. Szavay is maybe the stronger player, but she has had a busy shedule lately and should be a bit tired. Under these conditions I see this as a 50/50 duel, and +125 is good for me.

    Pennetta/Vives U 19.5 -135 3 units
    The line is way too high here. The defending champion Pennetta has smashed all her opponents so far and looks really strong in front of the home crowd. Vives will be smashed here as well in my opinion. Also 3-0 Pennetta in H2H.

    Errani +139 2 units
    Errani's record in Palermo; 2007 semi-finals, 2008 win, 2009 2nd place. I think she will reach the semis here this year too. Kanepi has looked awfully good but the odds is way to good on Errani.
    Last edited by TheJoke; 07-16-10, 03:07 AM.
  • Yezzir
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-29-10
    • 933

    #2
    Loving Hercoq, as it looks like Szavay may have the flu.

    I'm on it, but worried about a retirement.
    Comment
    • noober
      SBR MVP
      • 10-23-09
      • 2012

      #3
      where did u get the info on szavay
      Comment
      • TheJoke
        SBR Rookie
        • 04-19-10
        • 30

        #4
        Adding:

        Larsson +250 (1 unit)
        I think the young swede has a great shot here. 1-0 H2H aswell.
        Comment
        • noober
          SBR MVP
          • 10-23-09
          • 2012

          #5
          what book are you using?
          Comment
          • swiss88
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 02-07-10
            • 906

            #6
            I tailed you on Hercog, good luck
            Comment
            • TheJoke
              SBR Rookie
              • 04-19-10
              • 30

              #7
              Originally posted by noober
              what book are you using?
              I use several but most plays comes from Pinnacle and Paddy Power, livebetting on Bet365.
              Comment
              • TheJoke
                SBR Rookie
                • 04-19-10
                • 30

                #8
                Originally posted by TheJoke
                Adding:

                Larsson +250 (1 unit)
                I think the young swede has a great shot here. 1-0 H2H aswell.
                Larsson served for the match at 5-4 in the 3rd set but choked, but a good play though at +250. Zahlavova Strycova is just a nutcase acting like a baby on court, Schnyder will eat her up in the next round!
                Comment
                • TheJoke
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 04-19-10
                  • 30

                  #9
                  Adding:

                  Craybas +174 (1 unit)
                  Craybas with two impressive wins against Amanmuradova and Pironkova. Goerges with two comfortable wins against average players but giving her opponents many break opportunities. If she does the same here, Craybas will punish her!

                  Oprandi +221 (1 unit)
                  As the Hercog play I'm chosing to fade the player with a busy schedule here. Rezai played well last week in BÃ¥stad but have looked more and more tired and I think the Italian wildcard Oprandi have a serious shot here. Saw that both TennisBabe and shari91 had the same play so I choose to pull the trigger on this one.
                  Comment
                  • PetrGasparik
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 05-19-10
                    • 278

                    #10
                    A lot of people on Oprandi and Craybas today.
                    That's bad sign

                    anyway, I wish you BL!
                    Comment
                    • TheJoke
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 04-19-10
                      • 30

                      #11
                      Todays result: 2-4 -1.63 units

                      No good result for my first day posting picks, but I will come back strong tomorrow!
                      Last edited by TheJoke; 07-16-10, 03:32 PM.
                      Comment
                      • D3 Mighty Ducks
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-17-09
                        • 11939

                        #12
                        Uh oh... Don't ditch your thread and start a new one.
                        Comment
                        • TheJoke
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 04-19-10
                          • 30

                          #13
                          Saturday

                          Kanepi -3.5 -110 (4 units)
                          I really believe in Kanepi in Palermo. I watched her last games and she looks extremely solid from the baseline. Wildcard Oprandi has done well but I don't think she has the strength to cope with Kanepi's heavy serving and ground strokes. Easy win for Kanepi here.

                          Goerges +5.5 -110 (2 units)
                          Pennetta has played OK, beating players she was supposed to beat and we know she's good in front of the home crowd. Goerges looks really impressive as well and I think this could be a tight one, +5.5 is good enough.

                          Parlay: Kanepi + Schnyder +143 (3 units)
                          Read the Kanepi motive above. Schnyder can reach her second straight clay final here and I don't think she will let the fatigue show today. Zahlavova Strycov was looking really really bad against Larsson yesterday, whining after every ball lost. But inexperienced Larsson couldn't take advantage of ZS's bad temper but I think well experienced Schnyder can.
                          Comment
                          • TheJoke
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 04-19-10
                            • 30

                            #14
                            Yesterdays result: 1-2 -1.40u

                            Total result: 3-6 -3.03u

                            I only have one pick for today, but I feel really confident in this one:

                            Kanepi +200 (3 units)
                            Kanepi playin brilliantly this week, and with two clay titles already this year she knows how it feels to play a final. I relly like her heavy game from the baseline, pure power. Pennetta is in the final but I don't think she has played extremely well this week. She has had a quite easy draw in my opinion but here I think she meets someone who really can put on a fight against her. Everbody expects Pennetta to win and there is a huge pressure on her from the home crowd. I think that she has taken out the victory herself as well, but oooh how disappointed she will be!
                            Comment
                            • TheJoke
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 04-19-10
                              • 30

                              #15
                              Todays result: 1-0 +6.00u

                              Total result: 4-6 +2.97u

                              Kanepi did her job and we're on green!
                              Comment
                              • shantystar
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 11-13-05
                                • 7299

                                #16
                                gl.
                                Comment
                                • TheJoke
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 04-19-10
                                  • 30

                                  #17
                                  Monday

                                  Parlay: Olaru + Cornet +140 (2 units)
                                  Two favs that went far in this tournament last year. I can't see Olaru lose against an average player like Woerle here. Olaru lost in the final against Petkovic last year and looked to regain a bit of shape last week beating Pivovarova before she lost against the coming winner Kanepi. Woerle hasn't been through a first round on clay this year, enough said. Cornet lost against Olaru in the semis last year and have played Ok on clay this year too. Rus is an up and coming player, though she lost against the useless Brianti last week and I think she's one level short here.

                                  Cuevas +144 (3 units)
                                  I can't see why Mayer is the fav here. Yes, he has the home advantage but he hasn't played well in this tournament previous years, so maybe the pressure from the home crowd is a disadvantage instead. Cuevas is playing really well at the moment and he comes back to this tournament as a semifinalist from last year. This is a 50/50 match and +144 is pure gold!
                                  Last edited by TheJoke; 07-19-10, 05:14 AM.
                                  Comment
                                  • PetrGasparik
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 05-19-10
                                    • 278

                                    #18
                                    Everyone's on Cuevas *sigh*
                                    it is a bad sign. anyway, good luck!
                                    Comment
                                    • nicsbr
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 05-03-10
                                      • 839

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by PetrGasparik
                                      Everyone's on Cuevas *sigh* it is a bad sign. anyway, good luck!
                                      i was on mayer
                                      Comment
                                      • PetrGasparik
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 05-19-10
                                        • 278

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by PetrGasparik
                                        Everyone's on Cuevas *sigh*
                                        it is a bad sign. anyway, good luck!
                                        so, here we go
                                        Comment
                                        • TheJoke
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 04-19-10
                                          • 30

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by PetrGasparik

                                          so, here we go
                                          Yes apparently a bad sign, not even close!
                                          Comment
                                          • noober
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 10-23-09
                                            • 2012

                                            #22
                                            i am on olaru pretty big with points and 1 unit with cash on the handicap
                                            Comment
                                            • TheJoke
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 04-19-10
                                              • 30

                                              #23
                                              Adding:

                                              Chakvetadze +120 (2 units)
                                              I've been thinking about this one all day and now I am convinced that Chakvetadze will take this. She's a better hardcourt player and are leading the H2H stats. Makarova had a great grass season but haven't played in a while + the hardcourt isn't her best surface. This odds have been sinking like a rock but there is still a bit value left as I see this no more than a coin-flip.

                                              Todays result: 2-1 +2.20u

                                              Total result: 6-7 +5.17u
                                              Last edited by TheJoke; 07-19-10, 04:13 PM.
                                              Comment
                                              • TheJoke
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 04-19-10
                                                • 30

                                                #24
                                                Tuesday

                                                I'm going away for most of the day tomorrow so I have looked at the schedule now and found a few nice plays:

                                                Parlay: Hradecka 2-0 + Medina Garrigues +114 (4 units)
                                                I really LOVE this play. Hradecka in excellent form and with three straight doubles titles in this tournament, plus a second place finish in the singles tournament 2008, she really enjoys playing here. Hofmanova will not have a shot here! Medina Garrigues is really solid, in her last 10 clay tournaments she has gone through the first round in 9 of them, with the one first round loss against Shvedova. Quite remarkable stats that shows that she doesn't underestimate her opponents in the early rounds. Meusburger is an average player that I don't think has a chance against a solid player like **.

                                                Groenefeld +120 (2 units)
                                                Groenefeld has an awesome serve that will help her in this tournament as it is played high up in the mountains which will make the surface a bit faster. Baczinsky hasn't played extremely well lately and I think she will have a problem with Groenefelds heavy game on this surface.

                                                Parmentier +120 (2 units)
                                                Parmentier won here in 2008 and she has a good first serve and attacking game. Garbin's form is questionable and I like Parmentier as a dog here.

                                                Goerges +110 (2 units)
                                                Goerges has been playing really well the last couple of weeks and I don't think that Zakopalova should be the fav here. Odds over +100 are great here, just dig in!
                                                Comment
                                                • TheJoke
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 04-19-10
                                                  • 30

                                                  #25
                                                  Todays result: 1-3 -5.80u

                                                  Total result: 7-10 -0.63u

                                                  No good day today, a huge miscalculation that Medina Garrigues would be so week on my big play. New picks tomorrow!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TheJoke
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 04-19-10
                                                    • 30

                                                    #26
                                                    Wednesday

                                                    Don't have time to write any motivations for my picks today, got one so far:

                                                    Sevastova 2-0 +162 (1 unit)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Kraghen
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-08-10
                                                      • 2509

                                                      #27
                                                      Don't you bet on the Hambourg ATP ?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • TheJoke
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 04-19-10
                                                        • 30

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by TheJoke
                                                        Wednesday

                                                        Don't have time to write any motivations for my picks today, got one so far:

                                                        Sevastova 2-0 +162 (1 unit)
                                                        Haha, Halep retired at 5-0 Sevastova in the last set. Lucky VOID for me here!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TheJoke
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 04-19-10
                                                          • 30

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Kraghen
                                                          Don't you bet on the Hambourg ATP ?
                                                          WTA is my speciality, but I look at the ATP matches when I have a bit time over. Unfortunately I don't have much time left at the moment but there might come a pick or to from Hamburg at the end of the week.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TheJoke
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 04-19-10
                                                            • 30

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by TheJoke
                                                            Wednesday

                                                            Don't have time to write any motivations for my picks today, got one so far:

                                                            Sevastova 2-0 +162 (1 unit)
                                                            Adding:

                                                            Hercog -125 (3 units)

                                                            Voegele -110 (3 units)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • TheJoke
                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                              • 04-19-10
                                                              • 30

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by TheJoke
                                                              Adding:

                                                              Hercog -125 (3 units)

                                                              Voegele -110 (3 units)
                                                              Another add:

                                                              Chakvetadze +140 (4 units)

                                                              Ginepri +162 (4 units)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BettingHedgehog
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 07-12-10
                                                                • 667

                                                                #32
                                                                can you tell me please the aspects of your money management?
                                                                i am really very interested
                                                                Comment
                                                                • TheJoke
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 04-19-10
                                                                  • 30

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by BettingHedgehog
                                                                  can you tell me please the aspects of your money management?
                                                                  i am really very interested
                                                                  Absolutely. I am using a betting scale of 1-5 units where 1 unit is 0.5% of my starting bankroll. When my bankroll has increased or been reduced by 50% the unitsize is recalculated. The more wrong the odds are, the more units I bet. For example, I think that the Chakvetadze match is almost even, therefore +140 is quite a large overodds which equals a quite large bettingsize. I have to clear that this is just my opinion, just because I think the odds is wrong doesn't mean it is. If you have any questions, considerations or tips, please PM me or write to me in the thread.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • TheJoke
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 04-19-10
                                                                    • 30

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Thursday

                                                                    Hradecka -2.5 -120 (5 units)
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • TomaCro
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 04-22-10
                                                                      • 255

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I think Chardy and Kohlschreiber er great plays today.
                                                                      Comment
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