Pegas' Picks

[PetrGasparik]

Today's plays in "System 2/4" @bwin

12.7.2010 13:00 Magdalena Rybáriková (SVK) - Anna Tatišviliová (GEO) Anna Tatišviliová (GEO) 3.15
12.7.2010 14:00 Potito Starace (ITA) - Florent Serra (FRA) Florent Serra (FRA) 2.59
12.7.2010 17:00 Fabio Fognini (ITA) - Filip Prpic (SWE) Filip Prpic (SWE) 4.3
12.7.2010 15:00 Marco Chiudinelli (SUI) - Victor Hanescu (ROU) Marco Chiudinelli (SUI) 4.25

Risking 6u to win from 7u to 74.5u.
I need at least 2 winners

Results:
Anna Tatišviliová 0-6 7-5 7-5
Florent Serra 2-6 2-6
Filip Prpic 7-6 3-6 4-6
Marco Chiudinelli 7-6 6-3

Live betting safe belt:
Rybáriková 3.8 1u
Hanescu to win 2nd set 11.0 0.5u
Fognini to win 1st set 4.0 3.75u (mistakenly high bet)

Current bilance:
System 2/4: +7.69u
Safe belt: -5.25u
TOTAL: +2.44u

[Crnjak]

fognini is much better of prpic - no bet in system !!

[PetrGasparik]

ok we have first winner. need one more to cash

[noober]

just an advice: get out of bwin asap. they are known for stealing money and their odds are ridiculously juicy.

[PetrGasparik]

just an advice: get out of bwin asap. they are known for stealing money and their odds are ridiculously juicy.

I'm hearing that for first time, how do they steal?
plus, what do you prefer?

[noober]

they may refuse to pay out you the money and cite some absurd reasons, such as professional gambling, fraud, double account, etc.

if you are in europe: betfair, pinnacle, and bet365 for live betting only
usa: 5dimes

[PetrGasparik]

i am in europe and have pinnacle account. but they website sucks and everything lasts days. So I quit using them

I look at betfair and bet365. do you know place where to pick some nice bonus for new account?

[noober]

pinnacle by far the best for tennis since their odds are THE BEST.

If you are looking for bonuses, bet365 will have some for sure but you should look for good lines before anything else.

[PetrGasparik]

I am using livescore.in to test some lines. Are they trustfull?

[PetrGasparik]

second winner. up 5units now. So I can enjoy last match without stress, Prpic wins or loses

[noober]

I am using livescore.in to test some lines. Are they trustfull?

that's just livescore, not a line coparisson site.

if you are looking for livescore go to atptennis.com

if you are looking for odds comparisson go to odds1x2.com

[PetrGasparik]

that's just livescore, not a line coparisson site.

if you are looking for livescore go to atptennis.com

if you are looking for odds comparisson go to odds1x2.com

thanks!

[PetrGasparik]

So, it is end of Day 1
All in all, I was lucky to get two winners. Next two - Prpic fought hard but lost, Serra didn't fight at all.

I ended with nice 7u+. I did some counter live bets that ate 5u, incl. one mistakenly high.

At the end, +2.44units is good. It could be better and/or worse.
I try it again tomorrow.

[PetrGasparik]

Candidates for today's play:

Flo Mayer 3.7
F.Škugor 3.3
Sevastovová 2.58
Petzschner 2.5
D. Gimeno-Traver 2.36
K. Pervaková 2.1

Any opinions on probability of win of these?

[PetrGasparik]

So far I am choosing between ¨

System 2/4 (6 2-team parlays, needs 2 winners to profit)
Flo Mayer 3.7
F.Škugor 3.3
Sevastovová 2.58
Petzschner 2.5

and

System 2/3 (3 2-team parlays, needs 2 winners to profit)
Sevastovová 2.58
Petzschner 2.5
D. Gimeno-Traver 2.36

[PetrGasparik]

13th July plays in "System 2/3"

Florian Mayer (GER) over Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER (GER) 3.00
Anastasija Sevastovová (LAT) over Lucie Šafářová (CZE) 2.58
Philipp Petzschner (GER) over Albert Montanes (ESP) 2.40

Risking 3u to get from 6u to 21u.
I need at least 2 winners

Results:
Florian Mayer 6-4 6-2
Anastasija Sevastovová 4-6 5-7
Philipp Petzschner 6-2 5-7 2-6

Live betting safe belt:
I try to stay away from these today

Current bilance:
System 2/4: -3u
Safe belt: 0u
TOTAL: -3u[/QUOTE]

YTD: -0.56u = 2.44u - 3u

[PetrGasparik]

Mayer won
now "easier" two ... we'll see

[PetrGasparik]

So I ended with -3u today. Petzschner and Sevastova ruined the day.

Fun part is - rest of unused candidates won: Skugor 7-6 7-6, Gimeno-Traver 7-6 5-7 6-3, Pervak 6-2 6-3.
But I decided to tail on forum majority. Anyone know what happened to Petzschner after first set?

C'est la vie Let's turn to black numbers tomorrow!

[PetrGasparik]

14th July plays in "System 2/4"

Fognini 5.8
Zverev 3.6
Zeballos 3.16
Greul 2.4

Risking 6u to get from 7.46u to 81.92u.
I need at least 2 winners

Results
Fognini
Zverev
Zeballos
Greul

Live betting safe belt
I try to stay away from these today

Current bilance
System 2/4: -6u
Safe belt: 0u

TOTAL: -6u
YTD: -6.56u = -0.56u - 6u

[JNic]

GL pegas, hopefully you'll win 2 of those

[jojo85]

have to agree with noober about bwin, I hit some of their weaker lines and instantly got limited to 5 EUR bets on tennis dogs. If you can you should DEFINITELY play on pinnacle.

[PetrGasparik]

Fognini and Zverev lost. I hoped for Zverev - it was tight.

Greul won in two set, seemed easy win.

Zeballos' match is interupted at 7-6 6-6 so it looks I might cash this tomorrow after noon GMT

[PetrGasparik]

15th July plays - Bank + System 2/4:
YTD: will be updated after Zeballos match

BANK:
Tommy Robredo (ESP) 1,35
SYSTEM 2/4
Alize Cornetová (FRA) 2,62
Pablo Andujar (ESP) 4
Iveta Benešová (CZE) 3,2
Stephane Robert (FRA) 6,3

OUTCOMES:
I need bank to win.
Then, I need either Robert to win or any two.

UNITS:
risking 6 units to get 11.32 to 126.25units

RESULTS:
Tommy Robredo
Alize Cornetová
Pablo Andujar
Iveta Benešová
Stephane Robert

[PetrGasparik]

Oh my it hurted.

15th July:
System 2/4 + bank
Tommy Robredo (bank)
Alize Cornetová
Pablo Andujar
Iveta Benešová
Stephane Robert
Result: -6u

System 1/3 + bank
Pablo Abdujar 3.55
Jarkko Nieminen 3.8
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 2.1
Result: -3u

16th July:
System 1/3 + bank
Flavia Pennetta 2-0 (bank)
Polona Hercogová 1.88
Sara Erraniová 2.33
Marco Chiudinelli 2.71
Result: -3u

17th July:
System 1/3 + bank
Kaia Kanepi 1.35 (bank)
Barbora Záhlavová-Strýcová 2.5
Lucie Hradecká 3.15
Julia Görgesová 5.10
Result: 0.13u

YTD: -18,43 units

[PetrGasparik]

after first week, it looks bad.
I need to go back and do some homework on this system.

I am watching dogs wins in other thread. I have a suspicion there are days when dogs wins are more likely - like at beginning of tournaments - it means, in mondays. Or on smaller tournaments.

Any comments meanwhile?