Advice on My Youzhny Future..Please..

**JNic** · 05-31-10, 07:26 PM

your in a tough situation here, youzhny can beat berdych but i can see no way he gets past soderling/fed. and then idk how you can hedge by picking nadal because i think he can lose too. Idk but your in a tough situation here. plus if you back berdych at -190, and then he loses, where are you then? its just pure loss

**noober** · 05-31-10, 07:49 PM

Assume the worst case scenario, which is acctually the most likely - that he will have to beat both Fed and Rafa. Make reasonable prediction about what the odds are going to be in these matches and hedge in every match starting tomorrow. I am sure you can lock some $.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-31-10, 07:52 PM

For $10, let it ride. There is no effective hedge at this stage in my opinion.

**noober** · 05-31-10, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by noober

Assume the worst case scenario, which is acctually the most likely - that he will have to beat both Fed and Rafa. Make reasonable prediction about what the odds are going to be in these matches and hedge in every match starting tomorrow. I am sure you can lock some $.

Actually, I doubt you will be able to extract any profit if you hedge the three matches so just let it ride for tomorrow.

Another option will be to play the "Youzhny not to win the FO" at betfair if you have a European friend. Currently the line is 1.005 which means you can extract about .3% profit. Not worth it now, but definitely something to consider if he beats Berdych.

**beefcake** · 05-31-10, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by noober

Actually, I doubt you will be able to extract any profit if you hedge the three matches so just let it ride for tomorrow.

Another option will be to play the "Youzhny not to win the FO" at betfair if you have a European friend. Currently the line is 1.005 which means you can extract about .3% profit. Not worth it now, but definitely something to consider if he beats Berdych.

Wish I had a european friend,but no go there,stuck in the USA,yes most winnable match is tommorrow,might as well let it go at least for one more game and root like hell for Soda...

**Ryangene** · 05-31-10, 08:48 PM

I would hedge game by game... Just a couple of hundred bucks each time... He isn't going to win it all but even if you bet $1500 on his next few opponents you will be in good shape..

**hels** · 05-31-10, 09:54 PM

Here's my perspective. You have to value how important the original bet is to you win/lose. You bet $10 down on the longest of longshots so I'm assuming that this wouldn't even be 1% of your bankroll.... that's just an assumption but figure out how important this $10 is.

If it is non-noticeable then let it ride out and view the situation round by round and try to extract value at these points if it is there

If you've run horribly as of late and the $10 is quite important then this would mean you probably don't have $6500 to hedge with so you can't do anything anyways.

My advice, let it ride and hope for the best.

**beefcake** · 05-31-10, 10:15 PM

You're right,I dont have $6500 to hedge with,thats for dam sure. Looks like Im letting it ride and let the chips fall as they may,at least till the semis..
Youhnzy vs Melzer final and then drinks are on me...

**Stacocakes** · 05-31-10, 10:23 PM

Hedging is always hard in the french open with Nadal being so big of a favorite in the matches he plays. You can have a big dog get to the final but if Nadal is -1000 to beat your big dog in the final then there isn't much hedging you can do.It is probably best to just let that bet ride Beefcake.

**hels** · 05-31-10, 10:30 PM

Stranger things have happened and at odds of 650/1 you would have to think that he will win at least 1 time out of 650 if every possibility is played out.

For example, Nadal becomes injured or major life changing event (family/coach/relationship) which might happen every ~100 tournies (just a guess) and then it's open game.

**Fthenorm** · 06-01-10, 01:44 AM

take Berdych tomorrow to win and play a serious hedge next round if Youhzny wins...The way Berd has been serving VS. Youzhny's claycourt season points to a Berdych win.

**beefcake** · 06-01-10, 01:53 PM

I wussed out and took berdych..got money back all my stupid FO futures,thanks forthe all the advice gentlemen.With Soda's upset would have been a great hedge opp ..Oh well...