Birdman's June Thread...YTD 19-14 +4.70 units

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  • birdmanweezy
    SBR MVP
    • 04-18-10
    • 4635

    #1
    Birdman's June Thread...YTD 19-14 +4.70 units
    another month another thread think I will do these monthly, its always nice to start fresh. May was an okay month in tennis for me, I started getting into betting more. About two years ago when I was a full time bettor I wagered on it alot but I took a break from all gambling for a year and my return in late april and in may was good. So far this year I am 19-14 +4.70 units of profit. 1 unit= 2% of my bankroll so tennis has increased my role by close to 10%. Have done about the same hitting roughly 55-60% at all the tournaments I wagered on.

    My handicapping aproach is as follows:
    1) I have an excell sheet that is essentially a statistical database of all players with a percentage conversion to each major stat catagory. Also factored in and weighted is a players career on a surface and current form on a surface. It is obviously set up for clay right now! I will post my rankings in the next post but they are updated daily by me.

    2) Look at previous matchups of players, look at who they have beaten in recent weeks, who they have lost to in recent weeks, ect matchup based analysis

    3) Browse forums and look at news regarding players.


    June is also a good month because summer is here and my birthday is here, hopefully in this thread I can contribute some analysis such as cakes and EP provide in their threads. I also hate the williams sisters and enjoy long walks on the beach!
  • birdmanweezy
    SBR MVP
    • 04-18-10
    • 4635

    #2
    Here are my power ratings updated through today....no federer/nadal ect because they havent had a betting line worth compiling stats for...aka im not betting them at -1000..get closer to final they will show up prolly at the top


    Last edited by birdmanweezy; 05-31-10, 05:27 PM.
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    • birdmanweezy
      SBR MVP
      • 04-18-10
      • 4635

      #3
      6/1

      Parlay: Wozniacki -210/Petrova -175 .50 units to win .66 units
      Comment
      • noober
        SBR MVP
        • 10-23-09
        • 2012

        #4
        How did you get the data for your database?
        Comment
        • birdmanweezy
          SBR MVP
          • 04-18-10
          • 4635

          #5
          Originally posted by noober
          How did you get the data for your database?
          just got most of it from the atp website
          Comment
          • birdmanweezy
            SBR MVP
            • 04-18-10
            • 4635

            #6
            Youzhny +195 .50 units to win .98 units
            Comment
            • cheesehead004
              Restricted User
              • 12-24-08
              • 715

              #7
              With you on Youzhny Let's hope we cash
              Comment
              • birdmanweezy
                SBR MVP
                • 04-18-10
                • 4635

                #8
                Youzhny-Loss -.50 units
                Parlay-Loss -.50 units


                YTD: 19-16 +3.70 units


                6/2

                Williams/Stouser Ends in 3 sets +142 .50 units to win .71 units
                Shedova/Jankovic Ends in 3 sets +198 .50 units to win .99 units
                Nadal/Almagro Under 32 games -120 .48 units to win .40 units

                was able to get nadal under at a book that hadent steamed yet...the line on under 32 went from -102 to -140 at 5Dimes and other books....at least one of those womens matches will go to 3 sets tomorrow, with a decent chance that both go to 3 sets. I would parlay jankovic/djokovic but it would still be -190 no thanks gluk
                Comment
                • Goat Milk
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 03-24-10
                  • 25850

                  #9
                  J.Jankovic Wins 2-1 +330* on 5 dimes. you're already playing ends in 3 sets at +200 but you think Jank wins, this is much better value unless you think Shedova has a shot. Even if you do you can take her like at +660 winning 2-1 and taking both of those is still more value that taking +198 that it ends in 3 wouldn't it be?
                  Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
                  Comment
                  • birdmanweezy
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-18-10
                    • 4635

                    #10
                    Williams/Stouser Ends in 3 sets +142 .50 units to win .71 units
                    Shedova/Jankovic Ends in 3 sets +198 .50 units to win .99 units
                    Nadal/Almagro Under 32 games -120 .48 units to win .40 units

                    YTD....20-18 +3.41 52.6%
                    Comment
                    • birdmanweezy
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-18-10
                      • 4635

                      #11
                      YTD 20-18 +3.41 units 52.6%

                      6/7

                      Ram -140 1 unit to win .71 units
                      Troicki -145 1 unit to win ,69 units
                      Parlay: Bagghdatis/Llodra 1 unit to win 1.13 units
                      Comment
                      • birdmanweezy
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-18-10
                        • 4635

                        #12
                        6/7

                        Ram -140 1 unit to win .71 units
                        Troicki -145 1 unit to win ,69 units

                        Parlay: Bagghdatis/Llodra 1 unit to win 1.13 units

                        YTD 22-19 +3.81 units
                        Comment
                        • birdmanweezy
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-18-10
                          • 4635

                          #13
                          YTD...22-19 +3.81 units

                          6/8

                          Kristina Barrios -145 1 unit to win .69 units
                          Jarko Tipsaravic -125 1 unit to win .80 units
                          Oliver Rochus -170 1.2 units to win .71 units

                          gluk
                          Comment
                          • griffdog
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 11-25-09
                            • 424

                            #14
                            Nice picks. How confident are you on Rochus? I'm thinking of going big on him, but he burned him in the French, so I've only got a medium-sized play on him for now.
                            Comment
                            • birdmanweezy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-18-10
                              • 4635

                              #15
                              YTD....22-21 +1.61%

                              6/9

                              Anastasia Rodinova +195 0.5% to win 0.96%
                              Viktor Troicki +115 0.5% to win 0.56%
                              Sara Errani -175 0.5% to win 0.28%
                              Vania King -110 0.5% to win 0.45%
                              Kristina Barrios -145 0.82% to win 0.56% (from yesterday)


                              more later using smaller units today with a few more plays than usual and trying out some bigger underdogs today.
                              Comment
                              • birdmanweezy
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-18-10
                                • 4635

                                #16
                                last plays for the day

                                Hewitt -3 -115 0.50% to win 0.44%
                                Istomin -3 -130 0.50% to win 0.38%
                                A. Beck +2.5 -110 0.50% to win 0.46%
                                Comment
                                • birdmanweezy
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-18-10
                                  • 4635

                                  #17
                                  apparently my troicki/rodinova/barrios wagers didnt go through on bet phoenix unless they facked it up...anyway ill not take 3 losses...good ole bet pho
                                  Comment
                                  • Stacocakes
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 04-10-08
                                    • 7126

                                    #18
                                    Nice to see the errors work in your favor Birdman
                                    Comment
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