Shari's tennis plays

Pride · 02-09-11, 04:36 PM

young is about to break berankis for a tiebreak.

what am i watching

Mikail · 02-09-11, 04:45 PM

I originally was gonna put a play in on Berankis chalk and all but pussed out. I figured Young might have a good showing playing in the U.S Looks like Berankis should close it out here in the 3rd. Match point and........... Game set match Berankis. Congrats guys.

blackbeSSt · 02-09-11, 04:45 PM

never in doubt

Beason5209 · 02-09-11, 04:50 PM

Next time anyone sees me in here asking for advice, tell me to leave. I have had the day from hell betting on tennis. Started with a Querrey loss and continued with Simon, Mayer Llandro, Melzer, Murray, Niemenen, and Razzano. I bet favourites, they lose. I bet dogs, they lose.

I play so safe and smart with college ball and NBA, and slowly build up my bankroll only to keep trying tennis and getting hurt. Done with this tough sport.

Gee · 02-09-11, 05:32 PM

Beason: Its a hard sport to bet anything with certainty, especially in the smaller shows. If you put the work in, the good days will outweigh the bad. For me, I'm a casual tennis bettor and find its a real grind though with a lot of yo-yoing slightly up. In my delusions of grandeur I think I have a clue, but nothing (not even 5%) compared to those who do it all year. I like it for the action though

See this post by Shari in response to a question about putting the work into tennis is worth it for the casual tennis bettor:

Originally posted by shari91

If you have other sports that are earning you a profit then I'd say no. To bet these tournaments properly requires a lot of time. That's why line movement guys and steam chasers get buried often. Same as when someone just makes a bet 'because the price is good' or a player is top 10 and their opponent has barely cracked the top 100. There are so many factors that come into making tennis bets if you're doing it properly and even then your player still might lose obviously. Add into that the number of matches each day and it can be pretty daunting. That's why there are so many threads in the tennis forum graveyard - someone hits a few dogs or massive ML parlays and think they've got tennis betting figured out so they start a thread. After a week or maybe a month, their ass has been handed to them and they realize the work required is quite immense so they give up, maybe to reappear during a Slam. If you're doing well elsewhere, I'd honestly say to stick with those sports unless you're willing to put the work in and acknowledge the fact that betting on individuals as opposed to teams requires a lot more work.

Gee · 02-09-11, 05:45 PM

Yay for Berankis. Have him with Cibulkova, who served for the 2nd set and is now in a TB.

also waiting on Kendrick, to make today break even. Then Raonic/Spurs/Duke

edit: also on tailed andujar - took the 1st set. nice. not getting too excited though.

Friggin' Melzer and Mayer :/ i like my line movement and knew something had to be up there... dunno what. anyone know the reason for the move? much bigger than normal and neither are on the fix list...

Pride · 02-09-11, 06:15 PM

i didn't look to much into it but it is safe to say that bookies are privy to a wealth of information us commoners can't get.

i have been following a little trend that has been very good to me recently. in matches where you can bet the game spread, there are some games where one side is heavily juiced so i will either take the +games when juiced or i will take the ML favorite when they lay a juiced spread.

another "filter" (i use the term very lightly) is to check the O/U and see if a side is juiced there as well. if it coincides with the juiced spread then i make the play a little bigger.

i really don't think there is much money to be made in this for the long term but it has been rock solid the past week and it can help with a play you might already like. for instance, i originally liked petrova but wasn't sure if i wanted to pull the trigger till i saw that she lined up perfectly with this "system" ive been using.

Gee · 02-09-11, 06:30 PM

Andujar serving for the match!!!

Gee · 02-09-11, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by Pride

i didn't look to much into it but it is safe to say that bookies are privy to a wealth of information us commoners can't get.

same as all sports, but the information you CAN get on american sports and team sports is openly available. tennis is a lot harder to get... even the paid websites don't have much, as the players aren't releasing much themselves!

shari91 · 02-09-11, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by yisman

I lost about 5,000 last night on NBA (HOU and OKC), and then Simon cost me several thousand with his loss today.

I had him in a bunch of parlays, and all the other legs won.

I just came back from playgroup and it's only 10:30am yet I feel like I've run a marathon so forgive me if I'm being rude but....Yiser - WHAT IN THE F WERE YOU THINKING?????!!!! You're a smarter bettor than me - you know better than to pull shit like this. It's Simon against homeboy Paire. Not Nadal against Shari. Seriously I want to kick you in the shin right now. No joke.

I'll say this again, even though I've said it so many times before - if you put a player in multiple parlays you are asking for trouble. I don't care who they are. You're being greedy and thinking you've outsmarted the linesmakers when there are so many other matches on the board. Any player can win. And any player can lose. Just like we can cash a Vosko, we can lose on a Kiri.

Don't do it. You never see me post it and I swear I never do it off the forum. If you like someone enough to put them in multiple parlays, lay the ridiculous chalk instead.

You know I love you Yiser but seriously. You let a halfwit tennis player rob you of good money.

Gee · 02-09-11, 06:43 PM

Andujar and Kendrick urinating on the bed :/

Kendrick with 2 break back points in the 3rd though!

Gee · 02-09-11, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by Gee

Andujar and Kendrick urinating on the bed :/ Kendrick with 2 break back points in the 3rd though!

Gotta hate how i call things early!

Yay for Kendrick!!

fights back from a break down in the 3rd to win it.

Andujar up a break in the 3rd...

BathingApe · 02-09-11, 07:23 PM

damn can't believe kendrick came back. I was on a serious cold streak today.

shari91 · 02-09-11, 07:31 PM

Keep updating me guys. Hopefully I finish this day off well in the black.

Gee · 02-09-11, 07:33 PM

ANDUJAR!!!!

i thought he was looking down the barrel of the old choke dog.

between all my sports, i currently have 35 bets today over college and nba and tennis and far too much in play... wish me luck! there are just too many bloody games of college ball.

off to a conference all day. good luck all in whatever they play.

shari91 · 02-09-11, 07:50 PM

Andujar!!!!! You $3.50 beauty you.

I swear this is why I bet dogs. Between Vosko, Andj and Arvid I can piss around with other bets and still come out on top. Woohooooooo!!

Gee - slow down.

BathingApe · 02-09-11, 07:52 PM

I wish I went on andujar.... Stupid, mayer ruined my day

benrama · 02-09-11, 08:48 PM

Great call on Andjuar, he really was the better player and deserved to win that match. Kendrick was heart attack material but somehow got there in the 3rd set after being down 3-0 and then surviving break points at 4-2 and 5-3 (from memory).

Somehow I've ended up well ahead the last few days but it's bloody tough work. I much prefer taking dogs in these tournaments.

I'm taking a breather for a bit ... now for some NBA sweating.

shari91 · 02-09-11, 09:09 PM

Take a break Ben. Honestly the only time I feel any emotion at all is when people in here are cheering on a play. Even the night where I swept with all of my plays, I didn't really care as I know the numbers will catch up with me and I only hope to be ahead a couple of hundred dollars per week when it's all over. This crap isn't easy. Tennis is a ballbreaker on a normal day - in these tourneys it's much worse.

I'm sure I'll still be here when you decide to test the waters again so please come say hi. All the best.

Coochiemudlo · 02-09-11, 09:16 PM

Have nothing on Raonic today but gawd he is good. Must be truly humbling being flogged by this kid!

shari91 · 02-09-11, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by Coochiemudlo

Have nothing on Raonic today but gawd he is good. Must be truly humbling being flogged by this kid!

He's the last leg of a parlay for me and I was just coming in to ask for an update. Hopefully whatever he's doing - I'm assuming serving well - keeps working and he finishes Blake the bloody flake off.

JayDelight729 · 02-09-11, 09:40 PM

He's been unbelievable on his serve. Something like 26 or 27 of 28 thus far. Raonic should be a top 20 player by the end of the calendar year.

brettels · 02-09-11, 10:15 PM

Raonic is fast becoming one of my favorites

JayDelight729 · 02-09-11, 10:32 PM

Ok.. maybe an overstatement on Top 20, but I can certainly see him as a potential seed ( Top 32 ) at the US Open. He's a darkhorse to win this tourney in San Jose.

Coochiemudlo · 02-10-11, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by shari91

He's the last leg of a parlay for me and I was just coming in to ask for an update. Hopefully whatever he's doing - I'm assuming serving well - keeps working and he finishes Blake the bloody flake off.

Another winning parlay for you... You are killing it

See anything you like overnight? Looks a tough card

shari91 · 02-10-11, 02:31 AM

Originally posted by Coochiemudlo

Another winning parlay for you... You are killing it

See anything you like overnight? Looks a tough card

I haven't really looked at much yet but I'm starting off with these two. Not sure why I have a bad feeling about them but I'm still playing them nonetheless.

Morita +120

Date Krumm -110

Mirar Baseball · 02-10-11, 02:48 AM

overnight? coochie = yankee?

AzNDooM · 02-10-11, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by shari91

I just came back from playgroup and it's only 10:30am yet I feel like I've run a marathon so forgive me if I'm being rude but....Yiser - WHAT IN THE F WERE YOU THINKING?????!!!! You're a smarter bettor than me - you know better than to pull shit like this. It's Simon against homeboy Paire. Not Nadal against Shari. Seriously I want to kick you in the shin right now. No joke.

I'll say this again, even though I've said it so many times before - if you put a player in multiple parlays you are asking for trouble. I don't care who they are. You're being greedy and thinking you've outsmarted the linesmakers when there are so many other matches on the board. Any player can win. And any player can lose. Just like we can cash a Vosko, we can lose on a Kiri.

Don't do it. You never see me post it and I swear I never do it off the forum. If you like someone enough to put them in multiple parlays, lay the ridiculous chalk instead.

You know I love you Yiser but seriously. You let a halfwit tennis player rob you of good money.

Wow yisman, ive never seen u lose that much... uncharacteristic, but then again money management is part of the game. I know ull win it back but its a slow road of recovery.

Untied · 02-10-11, 03:12 AM

Thoughts on Berdych/Soderling -145

Berdych v. Tursunov

Soderling v. Kohlschreiber

Any chance they lose here at all?

dfberger23 · 02-10-11, 03:22 AM

I took Berdych -4, love him in this spot, he will roll.

Glitch · 02-10-11, 03:42 AM

morita off to a fast start. first set 6-2

Untied · 02-10-11, 03:43 AM

Thanks, I thought the same thing. Just wanted some confirmation before I pull the trigger.

Morita just took the first set 6 - 2 and she's serving to start the 2nd.

dfberger23 · 02-10-11, 04:06 AM

Need Errani to win the set for my over.

Mirar Baseball · 02-10-11, 04:11 AM

Kimiko opened around -111, went all the way up to +105 an hour ago. Back to -107 as of this moment. I was lucky to grab the best price. Let's get it!

(just meaningless noise, this line movement stuff, right?)

shari91 · 02-10-11, 04:21 AM

Half unit parlay:

Berdych/Kvitova/Soderling $1.80