1. #1
    Jeff_Black
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    2017 Tennis Season Thread, Picks, Discussion and everything else by Yours Truly

    A successful 2016 capping tennis with the intention of having a better record and profit in 2017 after what has been a nice break from it. Cannot wait to rip in again to capping another tennis season!

    For any newbies to wagering I recommend betting a portion percentage of your allocated bankroll rather then the exact amount each time if you want to build a profit and not to have losses, because it's ok to lose...to an extent. Therefore your wager size size almost never the same but if you are up over the long term you'll notice the differenc,e it's a patience game anyway!
    So for example if your units are $10 and you are up 30 units a team the end of the season you shouldn't just be up $10x30 but more then that if it makes sense.
    Anyway I figure it'll be easier if I do it that way so people can see how it works but for those who know what they are doing with their units feel free to do your own thing.

    Nothing is a guarantee but 99% of my wagers will be on ATP level Mens Singles matches excluding exhibitions and everything will be labelled accordingly so it's easier to find on the bookmakers websites.

    Last but not least Bol to everyone's else capping tennis at times or throughout the year and don't be a stranger either if you are following, this is a much for discussing tennis as It is for me sharing my tips.

    The Brisbane draw is out so I've spent my afternoon/evening going through it so within the next 24 hours there will be tips.
    Sit back, relax, and watch me do my thing!

  2. #2
    JohnHanson
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  3. #3
    Jeff_Black
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    Starting Bankroll: $2000
    Unit Sizes: 5% of bankroll per unit
    therefore = $100

    Obviously for those who have a larger bankroll may use 1-2% of their bankroll or something, the aim is to obviously have over 52.4% of winning picks in order for this to be a successful tennis capping season so without further adoo let's begin!

    -------------------------------------------

    ATP Brisbane International, Men's Singles
    Futures/Outright Markets
    To Win The Tournament: Dominic Thiem @ 15.00 on Ladbrokes
    Stake: $50 risk for a $700 profit

    In this instance I feel the other players are way to short for my liking, so I'm gonna go with one that has double digit odds but is also capable of winning the title as he showed here last year when he made the Semi Finals. This year he is better for the experience and is going up against a tough top half with Grigor Dimitrov, Raffael Nadal and Milos Raonic but I feel that if he did play them, he could beat them and that the others were beatable and could fall before they play him including Rafael Nadal who has never played here before and hasn't for several months.

    ATP Brisbane International, Men's Singles
    Steve Johnson vs Grigor Dimitrov
    Total Score: Over 22 games @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $100 risk for. $90 profit
    Last edited by Jeff_Black; 12-31-16 at 10:20 AM.

  4. #4
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Brisbane International 250, Men's Singles
    Elias Ymer vs Jordan Thompson
    Handicap: Elias Ymer +4 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $100 risk for $96.10 profit

  5. #5
    rankslash
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    What do you think about Steve Johnson +4 against Grigor. Johnson is usually strong at the beginning of the season?

  6. #6
    Jeff_Black
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    Had to play Troicki and Ferrer in Australia last year mind I don't mind his form there. With Dimitrovs inconsistencies and me having no idea what to expect from him I can see a tiebreaker and potentially 3 sets, which is why I have sided with the over in this case.
    The only Men's match I could see on the schedule is the Thompson one which I was always keen to fade because qualifiers are still finishingbur I might see what some of these doubles matches are like to see how they'd look in singles.

  7. #7
    Jeff_Black
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    Chennai draw is out as well now but not many markets open apart from qualifying.

    Personally I like Bautista to win that one with the soft overall draw and despite Cilic being a former champ I think he won't be as focussed and will just use this as more a springboard for the Aussie Open.
    No outright markets yet but being second seeded I don't think his value would be great anyway.

  8. #8
    Jeff_Black
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    Handicap: Elias Ymer +4 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle (-$100)

    YTD: 0 - 1 - 0 (-$100)
    Bankroll: $1750

    Not a well played game from Ymer at all. Struggled with the serve and was too afraid to hit winners off the backhand. Didn't fold up when he was down 0-4 but it was disappointed he gave up a little at 2-5 down. Thompson played well for the most part and didn't do much wrong, but it's super obvious that Ymer has the higher ceiling out of the two and can hit the low percentages shots better when he's on song. And his game is better suited to it. Too many errors just killed him today.

  9. #9
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles
    Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Rafael Nadal
    Handicap: Alexandr Dolgopolov +5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $87.50 risk for a $78.75 profit

  10. #10
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles
    David Ferrer vs Bernard Tomic
    Moneyline: David Ferrer @ 2.09 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $87.50 risk for a $95.37 profit

    Get that it's in Australia but gee whiz I am not feeling confident with Tomic, at all.

  11. #11
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles
    Nicolas Mahut vs Stephane Robert
    Total Score: Over 22.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $87.50 risk for a $80.24 profit

  12. #12
    Jeff_Black
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    Total Score: Over 22.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle (+$80.24)

    YTD: 1 - 1 - 0 (-$19.76)
    Bankroll: $1917.74

    Better result with the match going in three sets. Liked that Mahut had lost the first sets, and against two countrymen it's always tough to predict who would win. Still have no idea who may win there heh.

    Odds are up for Doha and Chennai. Will see what I like for the rest of the Brisbane schedule then look at them two.

  13. #13
    Jeff_Black
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    Moneyline: David Ferrer @ 2.09 on Pinnacle ($+95.37)

    YTD: 2 - 1 - 0 (+$75.61)
    Bankroll: $1838.11 - 4 pending
    Couldn't believe that Ferrer was the underdog in this instance. But anyway we'll take the win. Typical Spanish Bull performance from Ferrer and a pretty disappointing start from Tomic. The guy hits it as well and sweetly as anyone on the tour but sheesh, the kid moves around as if his feet are tied together as well, and today was no different.
    Last edited by Jeff_Black; 01-02-17 at 01:26 AM.

  14. #14
    Don_Omarion
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    keep up the good work, pal

    and happy new year with new profits

  15. #15
    Jeff_Black
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    Thanks, and you too of course

    ATP Brisbane International 250, Men's Singles
    Kyle Edmund vs Ernesto Escobedo
    Set Handicap: Kyle Edmund -1.5 sets @ 2.23 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $90.91 for a profit of $111.82

  16. #16
    Jeff_Black
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    Set Handicap: Kyle Edmund -1.5 sets @ 2.23 on Pinnacle (+111.82)

    YTD: 3 - 1 - 0 (+$187.43)
    Bankroll: $2040.84- 3 pending
    Edmund was all sorts of awful today, slow start, missed a whole heap of break point opportunities. Got a bit lucky his opponent choked a few points after Edmund gave him a few UEs to go down 2-5. Should have won a lot easier then he did but I guess it's the first game. Def got off to a slow start and was probably fortunate he played someone outside the top 100 which is what Escobedo looked like for most of the game.
    Points Awarded:

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  17. #17
    rankslash
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    That Edmund/Escobredo match was below a challenger level game. I'll definitely fade Edmund in the next round.

  18. #18
    Jeff_Black
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    Yeah was far from impressed with either player. Edmund's serving was probably better then Escobedo today but without looking at their rankings one would have thought they weren't ranked 100 spaces between each other. Guess we shouldn't be too harsh as it's one game but Escobedo qualified and still played like a player outside the top 100 so we can't expect too much from him.

  19. #19
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Chennai 250, Mens Singles
    Thiago Monteiro vs Daniil Medvedev
    Handicap: Daniil Medvedev -4.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $104.24 for a profit of $89.86
    Last edited by Jeff_Black; 01-02-17 at 06:21 PM.

  20. #20
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Chennai 250, Mens Singles
    Steve Darcis vs Nikola Metkic
    Handicap: Nikola Metkic +4.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $104.24 for a profit of $89.86

  21. #21
    Jeff_Black
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    Total Score: Over 22 games @ 1.90 on Pinnacle (-$100)

    YTD: 3 - 2 - 0 (+$87.43)
    Bankroll: $2040.84- 4 pending

    Nothing really more to say other then a piss poor effort from Johnson. Didn't looked like he wanted to be there from the start and played accordingly. Too loose, too many errors, not enough determination. A good start to the year for Dimitrov though. Played well, and hungry.

  22. #22
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Doha 250, Mens Singles, R32
    Nicolas Almagro vs Paolo Lorenzi
    Handicap: Paolo Lorenzi +2 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $102.04 for a profit of $91.02

  23. #23
    Jeff_Black
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    Handicap: Daniil Medvedev -4.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle (+$89.86)
    Handicap: Nikola Metkic +4.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle (-$104.24)

    YTD: 4 - 3 - 0 (+$73.05)
    Bankroll: $1923.62 - 5 pending

    ATP Chennai 250, Mens Singles, R32
    Hyeon Chung vs Borna Coric
    Handicap: Borna Coric +1.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $96.18 for a profit of $88.97

    ATP Doha 250, Mens Singles, R32
    Vasek Pospisil vs Fernando Verdasco
    Moneyline: Vasek Pospisil @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $96.18 for a profit of $98.10

    And that'll be it for me for the Afternoon/Evening Sessions of Doha/Chennai, onto Tuesday's Brisbane action.
    Last edited by Jeff_Black; 01-02-17 at 06:22 PM.

  24. #24
    Steamroller
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    What is Medvedev +4,5? Medvedev was like -500.

  25. #25
    rankslash
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    Why is Coric an underdog against Chung? Was he injured?

  26. #26
    Chaz22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steamroller View Post
    What is Medvedev +4,5? Medvedev was like -500.
    Jeff mistyped. Medvedev was actually -4.5 but he did win anyway.

  27. #27
    Chaz22
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    Quote Originally Posted by rankslash View Post
    Why is Coric an underdog against Chung? Was he injured?
    Yes

  28. #28
    Jeff_Black
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    Handicap: Borna Coric +1.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle (-$96.18)
    Moneyline: Vasek Pospisil @ 2.02 on Pinnacle (-$96.18)
    Handicap: Paolo Lorenzi +2 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle ($0)

    YTD: 4 - 5 - 0 (-$119.31)
    Bankroll: $1833.5 - 2 pending


    ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R32
    Jared Donaldson vs Gilles Muller
    Total Score: Over 22.5 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $91.67 for a profit of $81.04

  29. #29
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R32
    Sam Groth vs Pierre Hughes Herbert
    Moneyline: Sam Groth @ 2.42 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $91.67 for a profit of $130.17

    Giving the big guy one last chance to redeem himself after his abomination of a match this time last year.

  30. #30
    Jeff_Black
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chaz22 View Post
    Yes
    From what I read and heard he has said his knee is perfectly fine and doesn't feel any mental pressure to bounce back. Don't really rate Chung myself either but I guess not everyone can be Federer or Nadal coming back from an injury.
    that ones more on me then anything

  31. #31
    lucasdawg
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    goodluck jeff but i hateeee betting on groth, when his big serves are off he tends to get easily frustrated. at least he will have some home support but i like herbert here .

  32. #32
    Jeff_Black
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    Was tossing up all the options here including Herbert but the way I see it being him very lucky to get a wildcard into the Australian open (which I don't think he deserves) I think he will have to make his own way at times earning points and prize money, and it starts with the 250 events. So I'm hoping he plays to his best here which gives him a shot.And realises it's a bit of a make or break year if he isn't back in the top 100.
    if this was closer to a pick em or something I likely would have left it. But the Aussies that I have seen so far here have performed well (apart from Tomic lol), so I don't mind a bit of juice in this instance.

    BOL to you too of course

  33. #33
    Jeff_Black
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    I already wish I didn't have to watch this match haha. Reminding me of the Edmund and Escobedo match yesterday.

    ATP Chennai 250, Mens Singles, R32
    Aljaz Bedene vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
    Handicap: Aljaz Bedene -1.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $91.67 for a profit of $84.79

    ATP Chennai 250, Mens Singles, R32
    Renzo Olivo vs Casper Ruud
    Handicap: Renzo Olivo -1.5 @ 2.12 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $91.67 for a profit of $102.67

  34. #34
    Jeff_Black
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    ATP Doha 250, Mens Singles, R32
    Andrey Kuznetsov vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
    Handicap: Andrey Kuznetsov +3.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
    Stake: $91.67 for a profit of $94.42

  35. #35
    Jeff_Black
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    Handicap: Alexandr Dolgopolov +5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle (-$87.50)
    Total Score: Over 22.5 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle (-$91.06)
    Moneyline: Sam Groth @ 2.42 on Pinnacle (+$130.17)
    Handicap: Aljaz Bedene -1.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle (+$84.79)
    Handicap: Renzo Olivo -1.5 @ 2.12 on Pinnacle (+$102.67)

    YTD: 7 - 7 - 1 (+$19.76)
    Bankroll: $1969.15 - 2 pending

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