2017 Tennis Season Thread, Picks, Discussion and everything else by Yours Truly

**Jeff_Black** · 01-10-17, 08:24 PM

Handicap: Robin Haase +4.5 @ 1.833 on Pinnacle (+$86.82)

YTD: 22 - 19 - 3 (+$214.34)
Bankroll: $2171.45 - 2 pending

**Jeff_Black** · 01-10-17, 08:25 PM

ATP Auckland 250, ASB Classic, Mens Singles, R16
Malek Jaziri vs John Isner
Total Score: Over 23.5 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: $108.57 for a profit of $114

**Jeff_Black** · 01-10-17, 10:03 PM

Total Score: Over 23.5 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle (+$114)

YTD: 23 - 19 - 3 (+$328.34)
Bankroll: $2285.45 - 2 pending

**Jeff_Black** · 01-10-17, 10:05 PM

ATP Auckland 250, ASB Classic, Mens Singles, R16
Jack Sock vs Ryan Harrison
Handicap: Jack Sock -3 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $114.27 for a profit of $107.76

ATP Auckland 250, ASB Classic, Mens Singles, R16
Feliciano Lopez vs Jeremy Chardy
Handicap: Jeremy Chardy +1.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: $114.27 for a profit of $102.84

That's it for me on the tennis today, enjoy the rest of your day people

**Memphis Raines** · 01-11-17, 08:42 AM

Another excellent day, nice work. I'm a tennis guy, used to post on here a loooong time ago, but apparently post totals have been wiped. Been lurking for a few years but figured I'd chime in.

Keep it up.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-11-17, 10:02 AM

Total Score: Over 22 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle (+$93.81)
Moneyline: Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.06 on Pinnacle (+$110.48)
Handicap: Jack Sock -3 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle (+$107.78)
~~Handicap: Jeremy Chardy +1.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle~~

YTD: 26 - 19 - 4 (+$640.09)
Bankroll: $2597.50 - 0 pending

Originally posted by Memphis Raines

Another excellent day, nice work. I'm a tennis guy, used to post on here a loooong time ago, but apparently post totals have been wiped. Been lurking for a few years but figured I'd chime in.
Keep it up.

Thanks, can't promise anything but I will try

**Jeff_Black** · 01-11-17, 10:07 AM

ATP Auckland 250, ASB Classic, Mens Singles, QF
Joao Sousa vs Robin Haase
Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: $129.87 for a profit of $114.81

**Jeff_Black** · 01-11-17, 07:31 PM

Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.884 on Pinnacle (-$129.87)

YTD: 26 - 20 - 4 (+$510.22)
Bankroll: $2467.63 - 3 pending

ATP Auckland 250, ASB Classic, Mens Singles, QF
John Isner vs Steve Johnson
Total Score: Over 25.5 Games @ 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: $123.38 for a profit of $103.64

ATP Apia International Sydney 250, Mens Singles, QF
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Andrey Kuznetsov
Handicap: Pablo Carreno Busta -1.5 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: $123.39 for a profit of $124.62

ATP Apia International Sydney 250, Mens Singles, QF
Gilles Muller vs Pablo Cuevas
Handicap: Gilles Muller -1.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: $123.39 for a profit of $113.15

**Jeff_Black** · 01-11-17, 10:36 PM

...

**lucasdawg** · 01-12-17, 08:39 AM

any plays on the qualifiers tomorrow

**Jeff_Black** · 01-12-17, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by lucasdawg

any plays on the qualifiers tomorrow

Nah, I will likely leave them

Total Score: Over 25.5 Games @ 1.84 on Pinnacle (+$103.64)
Handicap: Pablo Carreno Busta -1.5 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle (-$123.39)
Handicap: Gilles Muller -1.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle (+$113.15)

YTD: 28 - 21 - 4 (+$603.62)
Bankroll: $2561.03 - 0 pending

**Jeff_Black** · 01-12-17, 09:02 PM

ATP Apia International Sydney 250, Mens Singles, SF
Viktor Troicki vs Gilles Muller
Handicap: Viktor Troicki -2 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: $128.05 for a profit of $129.33

ATP Auckland 250, ASB Classic, Mens Singles, SF
Jack Sock vs Steve Johnson
Handicap: Jack Sock -2 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $128.05 for a profit of $120.75

**Jeff_Black** · 01-13-17, 07:11 PM

Handicap: Viktor Troicki -2 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle (-$128.05)
Handicap: Jack Sock -2 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle (+$120.75)

YTD: 29 - 22 - 4 (+$596.32)
Bankroll: $2553.73 - 0 pending

**Jeff_Black** · 01-13-17, 07:13 PM

ATP Auckland 250, ASB Classic, Mens Singles, Final
Jack Sock vs Joao Sousa
Handicap: Jack Sock -3 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: $127.69 for a profit of $108.15

**Jeff_Black** · 01-14-17, 03:29 AM

Handicap: Jack Sock -3 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle (+$108.15)

YTD: 30 - 22 - 4 (+$704.47)
Bankroll: $2661.88 - 0 pending

That's it for me for the week, see you all next week for the Australian Open!
Or earlier if I get some plays down before then

**Jeff_Black** · 01-15-17, 05:59 AM

First slam of the year!!! Booooo Yaahhhhh!!!, goodbye life for the next two weeks!

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Bernard Tomic vs Tomaz Belluci
Handicap: Bernard Tomic -4.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $133.09 for a profit of $125.51

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Aljaz Bedene vs Victor Estrella Burgos
Total Score: Under 35 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: $133.09 for a profit of $119.78

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Mischa Zverev
Handicap: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez +6 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $133.09 for a profit of $125.51

Will post plays throughout the day as I see fit. BOL all

**Jeff_Black** · 01-15-17, 08:04 PM

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Roger Federer vs Jurgen Melzer
Handicap: Roger Federer -7.5 @ 1.813 on Pinnacle
Stake: $133.09 for a profit of $108.20

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Andy Murray vs Illya Marchenko
Handicap: Illya Marchenko +10.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: $133.09 for a profit of $122.04

**Jeff_Black** · 01-15-17, 11:02 PM

Handicap: Bernard Tomic -4.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle (+$125.51)
Total Score: Under 35 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle (-$133.09)
~~Handicap: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez +6 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle~~

YTD: 31 - 23 - 5 (+$685.84)
Bankroll: $2643.25 - 3 pending

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Marcel Granollers vs Dudi Seli
Moneyline: Dudi Sela @ 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: $132.16 for a profit of $138.77

**Don_Omarion** · 01-15-17, 11:42 PM

ur one of the best here, jeff .. keep up the good work

**Jeff_Black** · 01-16-17, 12:15 AM

Australian Open 2000, Mens singles, R128
Karen Khanacov vs Adrian Mannarino
Handicap: Karen Khacanov -2 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $132.16 for a profit of 124.63

**Jeff_Black** · 01-16-17, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by Don_Omarion

ur one of the best here, jeff .. keep up the good work

Early days but just gotta keep at it ey? Heh
Got a bit lucky Garcia Lopez broke Zverev back serving for the match
Was happy enough Marchenko got it to 5-3 but I'll take 7-5 too

**rankslash** · 01-16-17, 07:50 AM

Great first day, Jeff!

**Jeff_Black** · 01-16-17, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by rankslash

Great first day, Jeff!

Ey cheers, Just wished Federer would put me out of my misery sooner haha

Handicap: Roger Federer -7.5 @ 1.813 on Pinnacle (-$133.09)
Handicap: Illya Marchenko +10.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle (+$122.04)
Moneyline: Dudi Sela @ 2.05 on Pinnacle (+$138.77)
Handicap: Karen Khacanov -2 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle (+$124.63)

YTD: 34 - 24 - 5 (+$938.19)
Bankroll: $2895.60 - 0 pending

**Jeff_Black** · 01-16-17, 09:40 AM

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Florian Mayer vs Rafael Nadal
Handicap: Florian Mayer +9 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.78 for a profit of $129.99

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Fernando Verdasco vs Novak Djokovic
Handicap: Fernando Verdasco +8 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.78 for a profit of $125.81

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Alexander Zverev vs Robin Haase
Total Games: Over 34.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.78 for a profit of $143.33

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Gilles Simon vs Michael Mmoh
Handicap: Michael Mmoh +7 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.78 for a profit of $143.33

Like before, plays throughout the day as I see fit. Normally I have a handful I like, some I like to post earlier cause I worry itll move one way, others I want to sleep on and see what the weather/courts play like. BOL all

**Don_Omarion** · 01-16-17, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Early days but just gotta keep at it ey? Heh
Got a bit lucky Garcia Lopez broke Zverev back serving for the match
Was happy enough Marchenko got it to 5-3 but I'll take 7-5 too

at the end, winner is a winner fellas

way to go

**Jeff_Black** · 01-16-17, 06:23 PM

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Borna Coric
Handicap: Alexandr Dolgopolov -1.5 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.78 for a profit of $132.02

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Omar Jasika vs David Ferrer
Handicap: Omar Jasika +7.5 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.78 for a profit of $125.81

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Tommy Haas vs Benoit Paire
Handicap: Tommy Haas +6 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.78 for a profit of $139.13

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Hyeon Chung vs Renzo Olivo
Handicap: Renzo Olivo +6 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.78 for a profit of $149.12

Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R128
Daniil Medvedev vs Ernesto Escobedo
Handicap: Daniil Medvedev -4 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.78 for a profit of $147.68

**gorwin068** · 01-16-17, 07:38 PM

Hi Jeff, just wondering if it is always 1 unit stake now? In the previous thread, I remember you put "1 unit" as the stake instead of the amount of money.
By the way, would you sometimes have got some picks with higher stake? (i.e. picks with relatively higher confidence and chance)

**Jeff_Black** · 01-16-17, 10:05 PM

Hey man good to see you around. My philosophy is always the same with units (usually 1 or 2, and sometimes bigger ones, but not often) but I thought maybe this way it would be a better indication of how much I am really up as opposed to being "up 4 units or something".

Answering your second question, yes there will be times where I may be more confident and place maybe 2 units or 1.5u (calculated from 5% of my bankroll) but I think personally no matter how much "Im feeling it" or well I'm doing I'd rather take things one step at a time this early in the year, feel out the players, form etc...
I haven't decided when that would be, maybe in a months time or something so we'll see with that

Quick calculations for ya as well as to how I work these things out:

Unit Stake = old bankroll x 0.05
Profit = Unit Stake x (odds -1)
New bankroll = profit + old bankroll

Let's take the Zverev/Haase overs win which has gone overs now, this is obviously done for the result of every wager:

Unit Stake = $2895.60 x 0.05
Unit Stake = $144.78
(Refer to post #93 for latest bankroll)

Profit = $144.78 x (1.99-1)
= $144.78 x 0.99
= $143.33
Profit = $143.33

New bankroll = $143.33 + 2895.60
New bankroll = $3038.9322
Rounded off to $3038.93 (applies for all results with similar extra numerals)

Hope this unecessarily explains a few things :P

**Jeff_Black** · 01-16-17, 10:07 PM

So to the above (i'll probably note it down when I'm doing the wager) if I want to do a 2 unit play at some point down the track or whatever then it's easy to times that unit stake ($144.78 for example) by 2.

**gorwin068** · 01-16-17, 10:11 PM

Brilliant man...gotcha

**Cuse0323** · 01-16-17, 11:51 PM

Am I crazy to go all in on Monfils?

No clue on Tennis right now.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-17-17, 12:07 AM

Australians Open 2000, Men's Singles, R128
Dmitri Tursunov vs Radek Stepanek
Handicap: Dmitri Tursunov +7 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: $144.78 for a profit of $125.81

Slept on it still couldn't decide, few hours later feel ok, Stepanek probably handles the heat better but he shouldn't really be -7 in best of 5 against anyone who's played on the tour.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-17-17, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by Cuse0323

Am I crazy to go all in on Monfils?

No clue on Tennis right now.

Odds?
Will almost be not worth it

Edit: Bit of an expansion because I was on the road before...
Monfils seems to be hit and miss early on
One year he can win comfortably in 3, another he will win in four or 5.
Should win but risk/reward for mine not worth it
Other may see it different

Parlay worthy? Possibly

**Cuse0323** · 01-17-17, 01:48 AM

-350

Thinking of 1,050 to win 300.

I'm not all that afraid of the rust. Gael seems to struggle sometimes against lefties. I don't know too much about Vesely. Hear he has a good first serve. Whoever wins the 1st set probably wins. I wanna do it, but can't pull the trigger. Monfils most likely wins in 4, so a nice $300 would be great.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-17-17, 09:01 AM

Handicap: Florian Mayer +9 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle (+$129.99)
Handicap: Fernando Verdasco +8 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle (-$144.78)
Total Games: Over 34.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle (+$143.33)
Handicap: Michael Mmoh +7 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle (-$144.78)
Handicap: Alexandr Dolgopolov -1.5 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle (+$132.02)
Handicap: Omar Jasika +7.5 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle (-$144.78)
~~Handicap: Tommy Haas +6 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle~~

Handicap: Renzo Olivo +6 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle (-$144.78)
Handicap: Daniil Medvedev -4 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle (-$144.78)
Handicap: Dmitri Tursunov +7 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle (-$144.78)

YTD: 37 - 30 - 6 (+$475.15)
Bankroll: $2432.08 - 0 pending

Bad hit today, there's always tommorow