I don't know, I haven't been on much to be honest :P
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Comment -
Australian Open, Mens Singles, Final
Novak Djokovic vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Novak Djokovic -5.5, 2.07 on Pinnacle
Set Handicap: Novak Djokovic -2.5 Sets, 2.55 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u and 2u plays
It's great that the media are pumping up Thiem's chances for us contrarians. Thiem in the past has actually struggled to be an adequate defensive player, but in his run to the Final he has shown that he can be patient and go for his shots when he has the chances. It was the most impressive part of his game against Nadal and a reason why he was able to get the better of him. He will have to do that again in tonight's Final, except against a tougher opponent on his favourite surface. But there is more to it then that.
His biggest challenge will be getting in to the Djokovic serve, so unless it is loose and he has a few average misses he will tough to break again. He literally toyed with Federer and once Federer missed the 0-40 break point chances on Djokovic's serve in the first set he did not face a break point since then. And an underrated part of his game is that he has perfect placement and brings out his 'clutch' serve when he needs it. He doesn't lose much between first and second serves either.
Thiem on the other hand, has to serve a bit better then he did against Zverev. He can't afford to give many opportunities to Djokovic to get into the serve and have opportunities to break it down like he has with his other opponents at various times. He needs to win a few easy points on his end from time to time or to be in a positive where he can set up an easy volley/winner to take the pressure off his service games and Djokovic will have no problem standing on the baseline for Thiem's serve, like he did with Raonic where he floats it back with enough length to be able to neutralise the point.
Ultimately in many years here Djokovic has played his best tennis in the business end of the tournaments, see his matches against Raonic and Federer. This surface is a bit slower this year and the balls will fluff up a bit more which I think will make it perfect conditions for Djokovic. I haven't too many times seen the extra day of rest affect one player or another now that three roofs here at the Australian Open are fitted with roofs.
I think Djokovic will be too good today.Comment -
I think Blake Mott has a much brighter future in tennis than it appears now.Comment -
49 - 60 - 4 (-0.291u), an example of what not to do
So my little recap on the Final, and the most important bits that contributed to Djokovic's win
I've been talking with other tennis tragics about whether this Final is a one off for Thiem, and while some were in the fence saying it doesn't mean much, others like myself think it's the breakthrough he needs to show himself he has the tools to do it. And falling short is okay. Just look at a guy Stan Wawrinka.
I think where Djokovic took control late in that Final was (and I've watched it more then once since), he was able to continue to win points on his second serve where as Thiem's dropped off. It's still amazing that in the most important matches like these Djokovic's second serve holds up and he's able to win over 50% of points on them at times. Thiem's forehand also became less effective and he was forced into making errors and Djokovic was able to take advantage of that late in the game where his backhand became as close as you want to god like perfect status.
What surprised me a little was Thiem didn't serve and volley as much in this match in comparison with other matches. He was effective with it in other matches (as was Djokovic) when he hit that crucial serve and volley on break point in the fourth set.
When it mattered though, in the fifth set, Djokovic dominated the baseline, and that was that.
I find these good to look at later on down the track in potential future match ups, personallyComment -
ATP Rotterdam 500, Mens Singles, R1
David Goffin vs Robin Haase
Handicap: Robin Haase +4.5, 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
David Goffin has had multiple occasions where he has played well here, and he was unfortunate to face Monfils, the title winner in the first round. With that said, I have a feeling Haase will be a tricky opponent early on as being a dutchman playing on home soil will put it all out there. He pushed him here in three sets two years ago and he was also a tricky opponent for Federer when he played him. Haase has really dropped off the main tour and in ranking but I am led to believe he will retire at some point this year and I think this may be one of his last tournaments so without a doubt he will give it a good shot.
ATP Rotterdam 500, Mens Singles, R1
Gilles Simon vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Moneyline: Gilles Simon, 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
I think the odds on present make Simon a decent play for mine with value. I think Simon is the better indoors player, and I think he has better point construction then his opponent which will make this an ideal match up for Simon. He's also played indoors last week and I think he will be better prepared for this match up then he was against Gasquet.Comment -
ATP New York 250, Mens Singles, R2
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Paolo Lorenzi
Total Games: Under 21.5 Games, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
These two actually played in New York with Lorenzi getting the surprise upset against the youngster who hadn't played much at the slams. But Kecmanovic is a States native who should enjoy this hard court match up and be too much for the clay courter who has a below 50% lifetime record on indoor hard courts.Comment -
52 - 60 - 4 (+2.58u)
ATP Rotterdam 500, Mens Singles, R2
David Goffin vs Jannik Sinner
Handicap: David Goffin -3.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Happy to have nailed how the Goffin and Haase match would pan out but this time I think Goffin is a bit better prepared for the occasion as the data indicates plenty of players have that tough first outing before finding their feet in a new venue/location/court/country. I think Goffin's form to date has shown he is one of the form players on hard court as opposed to the person who he is playing who has won one match so far in 2020, after his previous round opponent withdrew. Goffin will be able to do what he likes best in this game, take the ball early and take time away from Sinner which will frustrate him in to not playing the game on his terms.
ATP Rotterdam 500, Mens Singles, R2
Aljaz Bedene vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Moneyline: Aljaz Bedene, 4.46 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Happy with what I've seen from Bedene to think with the odds present he can cause an upset here, and it's not completely unthinkable if he has a good serving day. Tsitsipas had huge struggles against Hurkacz but he was able to force some errors out of him and do enough to win. And I know I mentioned the above in regards to backing Goffin but the form of Goffin and Tsitsipas are very different. Tsitsipas also has a pretty packed hard court schedule before the Indian Wells and Miami Masters. He's going to Marsielle after this tournament, then Dubai after that where the big boys play where he may focus his energy on. Although he has had some success in Marsielle too.
Even though Bedene is known more for clay he has improved playing on indoors, including making a Metz Final last season. He can play on European Indoors.
ATP Rotterdam 500, Mens Singles, R2
Vasek Pospisil vs Filip Krajinovic
Moneyline: Filip Krajinovic, 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
I have Filip rated as the better player in the matchup. Both guys had good weeks last week but I feel Pospisil is the one that has a letdown after a big upset win against Medvedev. As good as he can be he is also inconsistent.Comment -
Just saw you post, especially within the first part, I am with Sinner ML win today, as I bet on Goffin yesterday and he barely manage to pass the test, he was like...uninterested? Not concetrate enough? I cannot see here that he has motivations, like that his mind is elsewhere this moment.
In any case, court will show, wish the best of luck to your others bets though..Comment -
54 - 61 - 4 (+6.11u)
ATP New York 250, Mens Singles, QF
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Ugo Humbert
Moneyline: Miormir Kecmanovic, 2.23 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
This New York Open draw is pretty wide open now with the name players bombing out earlier, so it's a good chance for one of the young guys to step up. I think the odds look too much into Humbert's win against Giron, and there is no way he will win so many points against Kecmanovic's dominant serve to date. Kecmanovic resides and grew up in the States and is better suited and familiar with the hard courts over there then his opponent is.
ATP Rotterdam 250, Mens Singles, QF
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aljaz Bedene
Set Handicap: Felix Auger Aliassime -1.5 Sets, 2.53 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Both have had some impressive wins but I think Felix has turned this around since his disappointment in Australia. As I correctly nailed the Bedene/Tsitsipas match I think this will be a step up for him to back up two matches and a more difficult challenge against a more in form player. Felix was pretty damn impressive against Dimitrov who does well on hardcourts and indoors, and I think he continues that again too, dominating the rallies.Comment -
56 - 61 - 4 (+8.87u)
ATP Rotterdam 500, Mens Singles, SF
Gael Monfils vs Filip Krajinovic
Moneyline: Filip Krajinovic, 2.41 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
These two face off for the second time in two weeks and there is always an idea that making the same play as to who won before will yield the same results. Well that is not entirely true.
Krajinovic has been excellent so far in Rotterdam beating two guys who have served well in Pospisil and Rublev, and he handled Rublev's forehand pretty well too. He had his chances against Monfils in Montpellier but this time around Monfils won't be on his home surface. Monfils has at times definately looked dead on his feet but maybe he has enough energy for another two matches. Normally if the odds are closer it suggests the player who lost the most recent matchup can make adjustments, but likewise I think there is even better value when the odds are better.
ATP New York 250, Mens Singles, SF
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Kyle Edmund
Moneyline: Miomir Kecmanovic, 2.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
I've been pretty sold with what I've seen in this tournament from Kecmanovic and I'm happy to continue that with the odds on offer. Think the wrong player is favoured personally. Now with Opelka the serve out it's a pretty interesting looking draw, but in three sets I think Kecmanovic has the better serve and talent out of the two here today.
Comment -
BOL today!Comment -
56 - 63 - 4 (+6.87u)
ATP Marsielle 250, Mens Singles, Final
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas -3, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play
Haven't liked most of the tournaments this week with the unpredictability of how I expected them to, and how they actually panned out. Probably wouldn't have had a great week if I did make plays, but having watched these guys I think Tsitsipas looks good to win this title. He has noted throughout the week at his discipline and focus throughout every match and as I correctly pointed out last week he ironed out the rust last week to have a good tune up going forward in to Indian Wells and Miami. As well as an opportunity to adjust and learn from his losses.
Felix hasn't won his maiden title yet, as he has lost his first four Finals, which weren't against easy beat opponents. Including last week against Monfils in Rotterdam. He should have some confidence having been the defending champ here last year and I think it'll happen again.
Comment -
ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R1
Alex De Minaur vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Moneyline: Miomir Kecmanovic, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Bit surprising these odds. De Minaur hasn't played since the ATP Cup where he played exceptional but he also played at home, in front of home fans. Kecmanovic had a bump on the road in his loss last week to Humbert, who was in form but he did reach the Semi Finals on a fast surface in New York. Acapulco is also pretty fast and I think the 'American' surfaces benefit the young Kecmanovic who's game and style is more accustomed to it.Comment -
ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R1
Kyle Edmund vs Feliciano Lopez
Moneyline: Feliciano Lopez, 2.73 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Buying low on this matchup after a rare title win from Edmund, which seemingly came on second looks, from an uninspiring draw leading up to that title. Lopez has good results on faster surfaces and asking Edmund to back up a title is a big ask considering he is inconsistent at best. Lopez' serve and volleying on this fast surface should be a tougher challenge to break in comparison to the opponents Edmund had in New York and Lopez' effortless groundstrokes can also expose Edmund's poor movement if he is on his game. Odds are worth it I think.Comment -
Lopez old AF.
Good luck!Comment -
Think Lauren Davis at 20-1 is a good semi long shot to win the mexican Tourney...sloan as the fav? Come on man!!
Maybe rubllev to win at 16-1..kid can play and in a 3 set match never know vs Joker or TstisComment -
Yea, Sloane as the prohibitive favorite is crazy. She's had a hard time getting out of the first round of tournaments of late. It is a pretty weak field, so Lauren Davis seems as good as any. Shelby Rogers might be worth a look, albeit at less of a price (12/1). I think that's who I'll take a stab at.
Tsitsi not a bad price at +750, but tough to win back-to-back tournaments, especially with Joker in the field. Don't know if Joker will be all that motivated though.Comment -
Comments:
1) Tsitsipas is still a good proposition. One wouldn't expect Djokovic to give it his all here. Djokovic is beginning to borrow from the Federer cookbook - preserve oneself for when it really matters.
2) Sloane doesn't play too well outside the US especially as a favorite. She shouldn't be a prohibitive favorite here. Just saying.Comment -
I do believe there is some level of motivation with the Djoker. I mean he won that ATP Cup and backed it up at the Australian Open. Which to me spells that he means business in 2020 to get that overall highest time spent at number one.
The ATP Cup was potentially looking at being a mickey mouse tournament but it was an absolute master stroke by the ATP which generated tonnes of dollars and interest amongst fans.
And he's at 78 titles at the moment and in a position to try and push for maybe 90 titles (100 may be too much but again he does seem like he wants to maximise his peak playing window?)
I don't believe he will be fussed with winning everything but he will if he has played a lot of matches, likely pull out of a clay event again.
Interested to see if Djokovic tries to get to his old winning streak from 2011. He is already 13-0 on the year and winning the Dubai title would bring him to 19-0. If he didn't retire from Dubai with an eye injury from the poor air quality (from memory) in that insane 2015 year he had he would have easily pulled it off then as he had the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami, Rome and Monte Carlo Masters in his pocket as well, and that's with skipping Madrid.
With Federer out and a title contender in Dubai the top half is still a bit of a challenge with some good servers in his half. Thiem troubled him in Australia but there were a lot of external influences affecting Djokovic that game.
Not getting all those points last year has put him in good stead for this season as he can maintain his lead as the #1 ranked player without many points to defend at Indian Wells/Miami and Dubai.
Which then puts the ball in Nadal's court during clay season. And we all know Djokovic wants Federer's records notably at weeks spent at #1 and he will probably be looking at overall Masters title leader which is also a possibility (one behind Nadal).
He has the form to back it up (he never looked like losing against Nadal in that ATP Cup match) and probably would have beaten him in the Australian Open Final in 3 or four sets if he played him anyway.
But like you said Tsitsipas could pose a threat and has the confidence to beat him after doing so last year and earlier in Abu Dhabi.
The nextgen can still be inconsistent at best so I'm really reserved on it though.Comment -
Also I haven't really read much on it and a lot can change but I do wonder if players and Djokovic are thinking of skipping the Asian Swing Beijing/Shanghai Masters of things with the corona virus craze and may be only focussing on the Olympics. He definately would want that Gold Medal again and give himself the best possible chance to get it.
He was probably also unlucky to face Del Potro in the first round last time around and perhaps the Zita Virus put him and others off who didn't participate.
So perhaps winning a few more titles earlier on isn't a bad idea in that regard either.Comment -
That’s a good point, you know he’s going to go balls out to get the one thing he doesn’t have, Olympic gold.Comment -
57 - 63 - 4 (+8.87u)
Anyway having a look at Dubai, nothing fancied me when I was posting my plays for Acapulco but I feel like I've got some nice roughies to hit today which are worth a look.
ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles
Karen Khachanov vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Moneyline: Mikhail Kukushkin, 3.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Khachanov has been a frustrating player to follow for his backers (myself at times included) where he has seemingly lost matches he has never won. His best match of 2020 in my opinion was actually his loss to Nick Kyrgios in Australia where he bought the match to a match tiebreaker after being down 0-2. He really went for his shots and an unlucky netted shot gave Kyrgios the opportunity to serve for the match.
Similar to 2019, his form and tournaments after Australia have been lacklustre, again. In Dubai he does not fare as well either winning one match in three appearences in this tournament. Kukushkin hasn't been great either in 2020 but having lost points from Marsielle I think he can turn this around in a matchup he seems to like even though the matches were a while back.
The data suggests that Khachanov can figure out this matchup and get a first win but the contrarian in me thinks Kukushkin can turn around his 2020 season here with a surface he should fare well on.
ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles
Philipp Kohlscriebber vs Mohamed Safwat
Moneyline: Mohamed Safwat, 3.87 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
I think this match is a very winnable match for Safwat who came off a Challenger title recently and should get plenty of support from the crowd playing in kind of a second home here. The surface should suit his fast paced style and match Kohlscriebber pound for pound who is a bit out of form himself despite having good results here in the past. But with that said it seems age has caught up with him a bit this season. Think the odds are again a bit of a reputation thing where the favourite is too short for my liking which places the value with the underdog.
Comment -
He will without a doubt pencil in that and the French Open as the tournaments he wants to win, no questions. With two huge threats and favourites in Nadal and Thiem that'll be tougher, and with Federer out it opens a spot for one of the young guns to step up. A guy like Medvedev has beaten Djokovic on clay and could be a threat to the others *shrug*
And I think he will want to do enough to hold on to his #1 ranking in the mean time where his points drop off is actually not too bad until Wimbledon as a defending Champion.
You would think Nadal should have some okay results at Indian Wells and Miami, may be not win them but get enough points to keep Djokovic wanting more points.
If we look back at Paris last year Nadal knew he would ideally want to make a Semi Final at Paris to get the #1 ranking back and it was the best of both worlds as he could then withdraw against Shapovalov and avoid the loss against Djokovic while having no harm done to himself.
Then he's fresh for London and the Davis Cup, which Spain won.
So while these players (apart from Djokovic) admit they aren't phased about being #1 at any point or year end, they most certainly look at the points and calculate these things.
Nadal actually admitted at one point a while back being year end one is more important to him then getting it at any point, so there ya go lol.Comment -
JB,
Really appreciate your analysis of our futuristic propositions.Comment -
Thanks.
ESPN did an interesting piece as I was literally reading up on it minutes ago. Not just 2020 but the future of mens tennis in regards to the likelyness of slams won.
But do note, this is only taking into account the data given, up until the present so it's a conservative approach but also realistic.
The TL;DR (which will probably did end up being just as long) version basically states
- Nadal's best chance of being on top depends on how much he can maximise his current window of winning French Open titles where he has an insane record and while the data does consider Thiem we must also remember that Thiem hasn't broken the shackles of winning his first slam (which is a matter of when and not if) so it realistically looks at Nadal vs Djokovic.
Nadal hasn't beaten Djokovic at a slam since 2014 and 2013 (outside of clay), though there is a bit of a gap between him and Djokovic as #1 and 2 on clay.
- Federer's best chance at being on top suggests how he goes at Wimbledon each year and overall a very narrow #1 there ahead of Djokovic based off data despite the fact he's 0-3 against him in Finals there, and hasn't beaten him in a slam since 2012. Plus age and this new injury.
For anyone interested the data suggests and likes Medvedev's chances of winning one in Wimbledon some day as fourth behind Nadal (third)
- The US Open is the suggested one where someone on the outside has a chance to win their first (or second) for some. It has bought first time titlists such as Cilic, Del Potro, and Andy Murray as well as Stan, and other First time Finalists like Anderson, Nishikori and Medvedev.
It's a different tournament as well with hot and humid weather, wild crowds, sometimes crazy weather as well.
So there are plenty of players with a bit of luck anyone can make a break.
Basically the 2010s was Djokovic, that may not last forever but because of his chances on all courts from a less conservative approach his chances are high.Comment -
Nadal still has a better chance of winning at Roland Garros than Federer has at winning at Wimbledon.
Don't want to say Federer is done at Grand Slams but his chances of winning anymore slams are getting slimmer by the day.
I still believe one of Thiem/Medvedev/Tsitsipas could win any of the next 3 slams.Comment -
For sure.
The data does suggest the big threes chances (this was done before Federers surgery news so even with that in mind) of winning slams going forward in 2020 and onwards still decline despite the fact two or three of the big three have won them in 2019, 18 and 17.
And it makes sense when you take into account age, physical decline and the young guys nipping at their heels at the slams and masters.
One stat that did stand out to me with Nadal was that after his Triple Surface Crown Slam in 2010 he only won three slams outside of clay in the whole new decade.
And those were three Us Open titles, two of which didn’t really feature Djokovic (a retirement and a DNP)
He probably handles the conditions better but it did stand out to me as a stat with that reasonable sample size.
So you could be right, we could see a first time winner in 2020 or even someone outside the big three.Comment -
Really liking Kukushkin to win a set against Khachanov at -120.
He has what it takes to beat Khachanov but this will be a triple revenge game for Khachanov. What do you think?Comment -
I think he can win, so I agree :PComment -
58 - 66 - 4 (+6.831u)
ATP Acapulco 500, SF
Gregor Dimitrov vs Rafael Nadal
Money line: Geiger Dimitrov, 6.75 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
Think the odds are a bit too much overs for my liking considering Dimitrovs form disposing of Wawrinka and Edmund who won New York in straight sets.
Nadals win against Kwon wasn’t as one sided as the score suggests and a more experienced and better player might have handled the occasion better.
This surface seems to suit Dimitrov well and hopefully he continues to have a good service game here.Comment -
I had +5.5 and he foleded like a bitch in 2nd set. I told myself i won't ever put money on him after Losing to Paul in AO, sigh.Comment -
Well Beef, we get credit for spotting Stephens as an absurd favorite, and then we lose that credit when neither one of us could pick an alternative to get out of the first round (Davis for you, Rogers for me). Heather Watson?? I've been fading her for years. She wouldn't even have been on my list of potential winners. I played against her in a couple of her matches and paid the price, but at least I bought in by the final and played her when she went off as a dog. She was pretty darn solid throughout the tournament. I wonder what her odds were. I'd guess at least 20/1.Comment -
Spot on with that one JB, certainly no lack of motivation. And now he's joking about going undefeated for the year (or is he joking??). He's a beast at the moment, but if he plays both of the 1000 events coming up, I doubt he makes it through undefeated.
Speaking of the Masters 1000 events, why does the ATP put them back to back? Indian Wells/Miami, Madrid/Rome and then Toronto/Cincinnati. It would seem to me that spreading them out a bit would make more sense so the players that go deep have a better chance to recover.Comment -
I have no idea what the odds were at that event but without Roger Federer there (who can beat him on that surface) I have seen him be as low as -300 or so in some years so there would have been no value anyway.
I don't know in regards to your question but players complain the season is too long, so I can't really see the powers lengthening the season as it stands now. But with Indian Wells cancelled now it'll be interesting to see how they decide where that goes.
And what do people here think Miami's chances are of being cancelled? High/similar?
My initial thought was that perhaps (with proper planning that seems to have failed the players) they could have swapped Indian Wells and Canada Masters around (less of a coronavirus threat) but I imagine it would have been too hot in August to host Indian Wells?
It actually gets more tricky being an Olympic year unless players flat out skip it but I imagine if things don't get better they'll skip the Chinese swing after the US Open anyway. So if the US gets better around that time you could fit Indian Wells back in then after perhaps when its Fall. I don't knowComment
