Very strong feeling that Rafa Nadal won't win the French Open

[Poisec]

I am 80% sure he won't win the French Open, but my issue is that his odds are 2.16 at the moment, if I bet against him on Betfair that's approximately equivalent to a back bet at odds of 1.86...

So, on paper, odds below 2.00 for such a bet might be the worst wager of all time? The guy won 11 out of 14 French Open he entered.

But... I am reading so many tennis fans (on menstennisforums. com) stating the usual "Rafa is harder to beat on best of 5 sets", well my opinion is that the guy is aging, and his stamina and defensive game are declining. So it will take a fresher player, with younger legs to take him out.

[Poisec]

Last year Diego Schwartzman could very well have beat him if the match did not get stopped by raining conditions.

[MiDNiTe]

Got to be careful with rafa guy doesn't really give a shit small tournaments he knows ppl will only remember the grand slams which he is definitely right I don't know how many masters him and joker has won with googling it, he saves himself for the grand slams, I think joker is following his strategy

[Jeff_Black]

I still don’t understand why Rafa plays in the smaller tournaments still when he openely whinges about the schedule.

Yet he
Signs up to play in Abu Dhabi and Brisbane before the AO

Plays in Acupalco when he openely whinges about HCs.

Plays in Barca when he already plays in four clay court tournaments.

But then ironically he mentions the word injuries in every single press conference...

Top 30 players have the four slams and 8 Masters count towards their best 18 tournaments regardless.
So you have London that’s 13
You have a tournament before the AO that’s 14
You have a tournament before Wimbledon that’s 15
You may be play one during the Asian swing after the US Open that’s 16
And if you play all 9 Masters that’s 17

Federer for years hasn’t bothered playing a full schedule and often has skipped clay and various other events so I’m just not sure why Nadal can’t do the same...

[Jeff_Black]

Heres how easy it is for Rafa to implement a Federer like Smart Schedule to preserve his body for slams.

Abu Dhabi
AO
Indian Wells OR Miami
Monte Carlo
Madrid
Rome
RG
Halle OR Queens
Wimbledon
Canada
Cincy
US Open
Beijing/Tokyo
Shanghai
Paris
London

Squeeze in Barca if you must

Simple

[Poisec]

Yep ridiculous whining when the guy was playing the IPTL and now the Laver Cup

[MiDNiTe]

Maybe it's to do with his pride, he bashed fed for feds schedule saying it sets a dangerous precedent as other players might follow it?

[nuxx??]

Djokovic winning easily.

[DavidGoliath5003]

I still don’t understand why Rafa plays in the smaller tournaments still when he openely whinges about the schedule.

Yet he
Signs up to play in Abu Dhabi and Brisbane before the AO

Plays in Acupalco when he openely whinges about HCs.

Plays in Barca when he already plays in four clay court tournaments.

But then ironically he mentions the word injuries in every single press conference...

Top 30 players have the four slams and 8 Masters count towards their best 18 tournaments regardless.
So you have London that’s 13
You have a tournament before the AO that’s 14
You have a tournament before Wimbledon that’s 15
You may be play one during the Asian swing after the US Open that’s 16
And if you play all 9 Masters that’s 17

Federer for years hasn’t bothered playing a full schedule and often has skipped clay and various other events so I’m just not sure why Nadal can’t do the same...

I remember Milos saying most ATP athletes MUST select 20 tournaments minimum to play a year

[DavidGoliath5003]

Djokovic winning easily.

Cechinatto

[Poisec]

Djokovic winning easily.

I think someone new will win, finally someone under 30 years old can get a major.

[Jeff_Black]

I remember Milos saying most ATP athletes MUST select 20 tournaments minimum to play a year

Yeah they probably nominate them from a normal point of view then don’t play in some.
For a number of years at the start of the new season Federer released his entire schedule when he was skipping clay outside of RG (which he eventually skipped) and it was probably not the 18 events.
I think throughout the year tournaments probably do a bit of recruiting like Federer playing in Istanbul for the money and Novak playing in Eastbourne a few years ago.

But those guys actually manage their schedules and don’t play in tournaments they don’t have to heh.

[Jeff_Black]

Maybe it's to do with his pride, he bashed fed for feds schedule saying it sets a dangerous precedent as other players might follow it?

He bashed Federers schedule for being shorter but openly says the tour is too long? LOL

This is also for these top guys who don’t really the money and points to focus on the bigger events and I don’t blame them. Aside from maybe other older players (who aren’t slam contenders) I don’t believe it would set a precedent for other players to follow because those guys need points to keep their rankings up.

[leovegas]

I remember Milos saying most ATP athletes MUST select 20 tournaments minimum to play a year

Is his contract with Nike, Rolex etc in public domain? I am sure there are a number of incentives that every sponsor gives athletes for just showing up. Nadal and other superstars are the reason average Joes tune in and consume commercials on TV and hot-dogs in the stands.

[sunshineSpecial]

He'll be going full bore with all his injections for RS, then he'll get fat for Wimbledon.

There's also the chance that Novak is going to flame out mid-tournament and save himself for Wimbledon and US. If that happens, Nadal will win again easily.

[nuxx??]

He didn't flame out last year, he wasn't in form after coming back from an injury. Novak is going to demolish everyone, he just doesn't give a shit about these masters, he's chasing GOAT status.

[sunshineSpecial]

No I mean, if he isn't dead set on winning the French, he'll lose a couple rounds in like he does every other tournament.

Nadal vs Djokovic on clay is much different than hardcourt. Not sure why everybody thinks he's "unbeatable." He only won it once, and that was against Murray.

[leovegas]

He just lost a tie-break to Mayer. Unless he picks it up in the next hour, people will be rushing to fade him in the French Open... could be as high as +150 by the end of today on Betfair.

[leovegas]

Is it a good thing or a bad thing for my future that Federer isn't playing any of these clay events?
May 26 05:00 AM Apr 03 04:23 PM TNTATP FRENCH OPEN[6] ROGER FEDERER +300040.00 / 1200.00

[Jeff_Black]

No I mean, if he isn't dead set on winning the French, he'll lose a couple rounds in like he does every other tournament.
Nadal vs Djokovic on clay is much different than hardcourt. Not sure why everybody thinks he's "unbeatable." He only won it once, and that was against Murray.

Except he’s pushed him these last few times before he beat him in 2015 and probably would have in 16 too
14 he was better but didn’t handle things well and his level droppe after losing the second set then some idiot fans yelled out on Nadals match points causing him to double fault

13 was competitive too, 5 sets and broke Nadal serving for the match in the fourth and was up a break in the fifth and there was the whole net incident

12 well we all know what happened there...and again idiot fans yelling out on match point causing him to double fault

Nothing is a sure thing but it’s hard to say because the sample size since they last played at RG is thin and the confidence he got from beating Nadal at Wimbledon which probably rolled into AO and being a different player compared to back then because he’s under way less pressure will make it interesting.
100% it’ll be on Novak’s racquet I think anyway

[Jeff_Black]

Is it a good thing or a bad thing for my future that Federer isn't playing any of these clay events?
May 26 05:00 AM Apr 03 04:23 PM TNTATP FRENCH OPEN[6] ROGER FEDERER +300040.00 / 1200.00

Federer still plans on playing in Madrid and Rome if I am not mistaken. Skipping ** is routine for him.

[Conqueror]

Is it a good thing or a bad thing for my future that Federer isn't playing any of these clay events?
May 26 05:00 AM Apr 03 04:23 PM TNTATP FRENCH OPEN[6] ROGER FEDERER +300040.00 / 1200.00

Yes, IMHO. He's keeping himself.

[leovegas]

Federer still plans on playing in Madrid and Rome if I am not mistaken. Skipping ** is routine for him.

Can't wait to see him on clay. It's been a long time!

[Poisec]

Is it a good thing or a bad thing for my future that Federer isn't playing any of these clay events?
May 26 05:00 AM Apr 03 04:23 PM TNTATP FRENCH OPEN[6] ROGER FEDERER +300040.00 / 1200.00

It's a farewell for Roger, I don't think he has any expectations and he can lose to a lot of players on clay. Reaching the quarters would be amazing already.

[sunshineSpecial]

I think he's switched to a less competitive, semi-retired mode. Playing clay season might have something to do with the Uniqlo deal.

[Poisec]

We will see after Madrid but I guess Rafa still has a decent shot to win the French, but the player to back is Thiem for sure.
however a player I'm 90% sure won't win is Novak Djokovic, looks horrible lately, looks bored and lethargic, paying 1.33 (-300) on Betfair if you bet against him to win the French Open.

[Poisec]

If Rafa does not win Rome he will arrive in Paris with zero confidence. I think I will bet big against him at Roland Garros if he fails again in Rome.

[sunshineSpecial]

He lost on purpose to avoid facing Novak before RG.

[DavidGoliath5003]

He lost on purpose to avoid facing Novak before RG.

Lol next time maybe watch the match

[DavidGoliath5003]

We will see after Madrid but I guess Rafa still has a decent shot to win the French, but the player to back is Thiem for sure.
however a player I'm 90% sure won't win is Novak Djokovic, looks horrible lately, looks bored and lethargic, paying 1.33 (-300) on Betfair if you bet against him to win the French Open.

The guy could care less about anything less than Grandslams. Thats all that matters now

[sunshineSpecial]

Lol next time maybe watch the match

I refuse to. I have too much riding on it, so I'll remain delusional till then.

[Poisec]

Now I am not so sure anymore about this initial prediction, well certainly not 80% sure. It's fine, have not placed a bet yet.
His draw is kind if you compare it to Novak and Thiem (Federer is irrelevant).

[sport advisor]

its 99% that nadal will win french open

[DavidGoliath5003]

Now I am not so sure anymore about this initial prediction, well certainly not 80% sure. It's fine, have not placed a bet yet.
His draw is kind if you compare it to Novak and Thiem (Federer is irrelevant).

A fresh djokovic will dust nadal.