My personal tennis picks and plays.

[ThinkingTrip]

Tennis is my passion. Starting with 100 units. 1 unit = 100$

First pick of the year.

3 units on A. Hoang to win vs T. Monteiro odds 1.80

Hoang loves hardcourt and looked very promising in his first round vs A. Martin. Monteiro prefers clay, and played well in his first match vs Brands, but Brands backhand was too weak and got punished by left handed Monteiro. Hoang plays extremly well from both sides, and can draw long rallies without problems, which will force the errors from Monteiro who likes risky shots and shorter rallies. Good odds. Good luck.

Bank: 97 units
Risking: 3 units
Profit: 0
Wins: 0
Loses: 0

[DavidGoliath5003]

Tennis is my passion. Starting with 100 units. 1 unit = 100$

First pick of the year.

3 units on A. Hoang to win vs T. Monteiro odds 1.80

Hoang loves hardcourt and looked very promising in his first round vs A. Martin. Monteiro prefers clay, and played well in his first match vs Brands, but Brands backhand was too weak and got punished by left handed Monteiro. Hoang plays extremly well from both sides, and can draw long rallies without problems, which will force the errors from Monteiro who likes risky shots and shorter rallies. Good odds. Good luck.

Bank: 97 units
Risking: 3 units
Profit: 0
Wins: 0
Loses: 0

Im not so sure. Hoang is better on indoor hardcourts. Monteiro likes this climate and court. Good luck

[DavidGoliath5003]

Nice job looks like he came through in the end for you.

[ThinkingTrip]

Thanks. Yes, hopefully and as expected Monteiro didnt have the patience or form to keep the rallies going when Hoang kept putting that extra ball in play.

Next play will be

0.4 unit on B.V Andreescu to win vs L. Siegemund odds 1.70 (WTA Auckland)

Bank: 102 units
Risking: 0.4 unit
Profit: +2.4 units
Wins: 1
Loses: 0

[leetreaper]

Subscribed

[ThinkingTrip]

Cheers!
And anyone can also feel welcome to ask any questions they have about a certain match-up or whatever it may be.

Adding another play:

1 unit on L. Mayer to win vs M. Kecmanovic odds 2.30 (ATP Brisbane)

Mayer is the overall better player, with a better serve and better shots and way more experience. We are getting paid a good price as Kecmanovic has confirmed he is playing well, while this will be Mayers first match since winterbreak. I believe Mayer is motivated and ready to battle, as he have been improving the last year or two after a dip in the rankings in 2016, where he was attending a lot of challenger to refind his good old form, and it looked like Mayer still had plenty of tennis back in his career due to steady improvements in 2017+2018, and I believe he wants to sieze on that and start this season strong, and he is well aware that he needs to beat a young gun like Kecmanovic who have zero to little experience on the ATP tour compared to veteran Leonardo Mayer.

Bank: 101 units
Risking: 1.4 units
Profit: +2.4 units
Wins: 1
Loses: 0

[ThinkingTrip]

2 units R. Albot vs J. Munar odds 1.90

Albot have been spending the christmas in India and is well prepared, while Munar most likely comes in cold form after relaxing and enjoying the holidays with his family. 2 similar grinding playstyles, and with Albot being well prepared and ready, he should have a good advantage. Good odds, good match, good luck.

Bank: 99.68 units
Risking: 3 units
Profit: +2.68 units
Wins: 2
Loses: 0

[ThinkingTrip]

6 units R. Haase odds 1.80 vs N. Jarry

Big shot, but I really like the odds and chances for Haase here. Jarry is very reliant on his serve and forehand, while Haase is a clever player with no real weaknesses, who should be able to force the errors by making Jarry move around, and not letting him control the rallies. Good luck.
Bank: 93.68 units
Risking: 8 units
Profit: +1.68
Wins: 2
Loses: 1

[ThinkingTrip]

My greed for a free paid new year turned into an expensive one. Feels good to be on the winning side of a third set tiebreaker, and feels bad to be on the losing side. The luck was not there. Happens. I will end the year with one last bet, before returning next year with full focus. Happy new year everyone who reads this, may luck be on your side, and good things come your way.

Last bet of the year for me: 3.68 units P. Gojowzyk to win vs M. Marterer odds 1.80 (Doha)

Marterer havent been playing well for a long time, and didnt look promising in his 2 first rounds. If Gojowzyk play well, he should win this.
Bank: 90 units
Risking: 3.68 units
Profit: -6.32 units
Wins: 2
Loses: 3

[DavidGoliath5003]

My greed for a free paid new year turned into an expensive one. Feels good to be on the winning side of a third set tiebreaker, and feels bad to be on the losing side. The luck was not there. Happens. I will end the year with one last bet, before returning next year with full focus. Happy new year everyone who reads this, may luck be on your side, and good things come your way.

Last bet of the year for me: 3.68 units P. Gojowzyk to win vs M. Marterer odds 1.80 (Doha)

Marterer havent been playing well for a long time, and didnt look promising in his 2 first rounds. If Gojowzyk play well, he should win this.
Bank: 90 units
Risking: 3.68 units
Profit: -6.32 units
Wins: 2
Loses: 3

Good luck bud. I like this play as well. I think Marterer is suited for slower conditions

[DavidGoliath5003]

Get this win then we will get on a tear as the tourney progresses.

[ThinkingTrip]

Thanks mate, looks like it have been a good new start of the season for the bookies, we'll have to strike back next year!

[ThinkingTrip]

6 units L. Grigelis to win vs U. Blanch odds 1.55 (Challenger Orlando)

Grigelis should win this in 2 sets without big problems. Blanch is capable of playing some nice tennis, but have never played a good match on hardcourt, and Grigelis loves the surface.

Bank: 84 units
Risking: 6 units
Profit: -10 units
Wins: 2
Loses: 4

[sbPickz]

Well I feel like a idiot tailing this junker Grigelis

[ThinkingTrip]

Absolute disaster for me. My apologies. Careless and disapointing plays from me. I'll be spending the next days watching the tournaments and matches very closely, to find the absolute best and safest bet to make things get back on track. I would've been better off at the roulette than these random first round matches of the season.

[ThinkingTrip]

Biggest play of the year comming up.

Tsonga is back.

[NYproGambler]

so what's the biggest play of the year?? are you sure you are not chasing your loss??

[ThinkingTrip]

You can't chase a loss, if you don't have one. This threads are just some personal projects I like to run on the side, because it's documented, and I enjoy looking back at them, to read and analyze some different betting patterns and thoughts. A lot of my tennis bets are live, and I don't feel like posting livebets, because it's really to no use other than show off, so it will be literally impossible for me to post all of my bets.

Anybody who makes money from betting knows it has nothing to do with picking winners, but all to do with money management. Everybody can pick a winner, but few can manage their money.

This is the biggest play of the year because:
1. well, we are only 4 days into the new year, and it's not like I have made any crazy high stake bets yet, so it won't require the biggest amount to be the biggest play of the year.

2. I am a high staker, I don't mind risking a couple of days profit for a huge paycheck in a couple of hours, if I feel very confident about my pick/play.

And to the bet: well, so far I placed 8.3 units on Tsonga odds 2 and 8.3 units on the over 23.5 odds 1.90, but I am looking to place more, just still doing up with myself if the over is the better play or Tsonga ML.

[Honeybadger44]

...
Anybody who makes money from betting knows it has nothing to do with picking winners, but all to do with money management. Everybody can pick a winner, but few can manage their money.

...

And to the bet: well, so far I placed 8.3 units on Tsonga odds 2 and 8.3 units on the over 23.5 odds 1.90, but I am looking to place more, just still doing up with myself if the over is the better play or Tsonga ML.

Money managment and betting numbers, not match winners.

I like Tsonga as well. I expected public to like Medvedev in this one, but I'm slightly surprised that sharps failed to balance the action here. I got him at +109, but might add some if he stays this high, around +125.
He is playing some of his best tennis, against all the odds. Got older, was absent most of last season because of injury and these heavy conditions doesn't really favor guys who are trying to hit through the court. But he does it succesfully.
Medvedev far from impressive against Raonic. Milos had upper hand even in the rallies, which was surprising. Got him in difficult situations, with multiple break points and/or 0-30, 15-30 games, but played those crucial points awful. He should never had lost that match, but he somehow gave it away.

I am not sure about the over play. It's an ugly number, where you probably need three sets to cash it. And in these conditons it's not as easy to hold serve as it is on some others surfaces. And players were talking about balls fluffing up faster, which slows things down and take away some free points from the serve. Tsonga definitely has ability to close this one out in straight, I think.

Good luck

[ThinkingTrip]

Agree. Tsonga should have a big shot here with the way he is playing. Raonic able to preassure Medvedev on his own serve, without playing anything spectacular. If Tsonga manages a similar or better performance as yesterday, Medvedev should have some real trouble.

I like the over, because it only requires 7-5 7-5, and I feel like it's kind of a safebet to my Tsonga play, while still being very possible. Tsonga wins this, or Medvedev steals it in 3 tight sets.

Good luck.
I placed 5 more units on a parlay with Tsonga and Bautista odds 3.52. Bautista also playing the tennis of his life atm, and should deal with Berdych without too many problems.

[Poisec]

Anybody who makes money from betting knows it has nothing to do with picking winners, but all to do with money management. Everybody can pick a winner, but few can manage their money.

And yet you are risking 10% on 1 bet + another 10% on the other bet on the same match. Good luck anyway.

Betting is all money management PLUS (even more important) playing the good odds before they drop. Thats my opinion.

[ThinkingTrip]

And yet you are risking 10% on 1 bet + another 10% on the other bet on the same match. Good luck anyway.

Betting is all money management PLUS (even more important) playing the good odds before they drop. Thats my opinion.

I understand it can be a bit confusing. But the money I converted into units for this project, is only a % of my original money set aside for investing/betting. Which I guess can be confusing, but it is however also still an indicator for how much I am staking. But I love to watch and analyze, which is why I started this thread, and why I love to read other peoples picks AND reasoning behind their picks.


10 units parlay D. Medvedev + M. Moraing odds 3.56

Medvedev has a great chance, and it's a great odds, he got a huge advantage on the serve vs Nishikori, and the way he have been playing all week, there's no reason to believe he cant outrally Nishikori aswell.

M. Moraing, I have been following him all week, and he is playing his best tennis atm. A huge serve that's been on point, and his forehand the same. I got a huge stake on the sideline on Moraing as a single bet, so this is the absolute must win match. Even tho the luck havent been my way for a long time, I would still be VERY surprised if Moraing doesnt win this match rather comfortable. But again, everything can happen, but for me, a match like this, should be a winner without a doubt. So if you don't want to risk it, Moraing as a single is the best bet imo. I like to risk sometimes, so I got a nice chunk on the parlay as I like Medvedevs chances, but obviously Nishikori is going to be the toughest by far in the rallies and that will prove a challenge, but Medvedev got the advantage on serve, and havent had any problems playing consistent and top level rallies so far.

Good luck to all.

[Honeybadger44]

You might get a feeling that he could outrally Nishikori, but this will be completely different type of baseline play compared to those he faced in last two matches. Raonic and tsonga both tried to hit through him, which is difficult to do in these conditions. And they came to the net often and he dealed with that really well.
Nishikori is different type of player. He'll likes to build the points with placement, precision, variation. Trying to get opponent out of position and/or get a shorter ball before going for the kill. Like the matchup for Kei in this one, but his 9 consecutive finals losses is a disturbing stat.

I can get on board about Moraing. When he's in form, he's really difficult to stop. He plays so aggressive and flat from both wings, when he's feeling it in faster conditions there is really not much opponent can do. And Dutra Silva is much more of a dirtballer. He will struggle to deal with all that pace. Good luck

[ThinkingTrip]

You might get a feeling that he could outrally Nishikori, but this will be completely different type of baseline play compared to those he faced in last two matches. Raonic and tsonga both tried to hit through him, which is difficult to do in these conditions. And they came to the net often and he dealed with that really well.
Nishikori is different type of player. He'll likes to build the points with placement, precision, variation. Trying to get opponent out of position and/or get a shorter ball before going for the kill. Like the matchup for Kei in this one, but his 9 consecutive finals losses is a disturbing stat.

I can get on board about Moraing. When he's in form, he's really difficult to stop. He plays so aggressive and flat from both wings, when he's feeling it in faster conditions there is really not much opponent can do. And Dutra Silva is much more of a dirtballer. He will struggle to deal with all that pace. Good luck

I completely agree, Nishikori is going to be the toughest challenge so far (atleast expected) but I feel that in an expected tight match like this, the guy who can get most free points on serve, who is Medvedev, is going to have a huge advantage. Because there's not really anything Nishikori can do, that Medvedev can't, but Medvedev is much more likely to safe himself from some crucial moments with a couple of free points on his serve, which I think will be a deciding factor if the match gets tight.

[Poisec]

I understand it can be a bit confusing.

Not really. It's just a typical pattern. Or what is confusing is posting about the importance of money management and then again play 10 Units out of circa 70 left.

Clearly chasing your losses here, but again it is a typical pattern and myself have done this mistake many times.

I think Kei Nishikori will win the final if he plays like he did yesterday, but I have no bet on it so good luck to you!