Tennis picks

[QuantumLeap]

Jorovich +112 over Alexandrova
Alexandrova shocked Ostapenko recently but I looked at Ostpenko's record and it seems like she is either losing or not winning in a commanding fashion.
Jorovich has been winning handily.

Lapko -1.5 sets -190 over Jovanovski
Jovanovski made it to be ranked #32 but that was a long time ago and she has been injured since. The only times Jovanovski has won 1 set in her last 10 matches was against 2 ITF opponents.

[QuantumLeap]

Rodina -3.5 over Frech
I don't know what's going on with Frech but she has only won 1 out of her last 10 matches. I know I've complained about getting screwed on retirements so I am reluctant to bet the spread here but Frech hasn't been retiring. If she does I'll take it without complaint.

[Conqueror]

Rodina -3.5 over Frech
I don't know what's going on with Frech but she has only won 1 out of her last 10 matches. I know I've complained about getting screwed on retirements so I am reluctant to bet the spread here but Frech hasn't been retiring. If she does I'll take it without complaint.

Went with Rodina in straight sets.

[QuantumLeap]

Went with Rodina in straight sets.

Cash it.

[QuantumLeap]

All 3 easy winners:

Jorovich +112 over Alexandrova
Lapko -1.5 sets -190 over Jovanovski
Rodina -3.5 over Frech

[Sweetness]

Thanks for the late night/early morning money

[QuantumLeap]

Thanks for the late night/early morning money

Glad you cashed. That's 8 in a row, although I have to admit there are some pretty big favorites in the bunch. I'll have some underdogs tonight.

[Conqueror]

All 3 easy winners:

Jorovich +112 over Alexandrova
Lapko -1.5 sets -190 over Jovanovski
Rodina -3.5 over Frech

Great!
More grease...

[QuantumLeap]

I wanted to get 1 early match posted. I will post some of the later matches in a little bit.

Danilovic -121 over Potapova
If you look at Potapova's recent form it looks positive. When you take another look at it, not so much. Potapova has not beaten too many good players. She struggled in her last match against Voegele who only won once in her last 5 matches and that was against a much lesser opponent.

Danilovic won the Moscow tournament and has only lost once in her last 8 matches.

[QuantumLeap]

Qiang Wang -155 over Gavrilova
I'm going to ride this filly until I fall off. She has been a money maker for me and I think she can beat Gavrilova.

Barthel -129 over Rodina
With the exception of beating Flipkens last week, Rodina has not beaten any decent players and has had a 6-match losing streak.

Barthel has only lost 3 times in her last 10 and those losses came against decent players.

Puig +177 over Woz
While Woz is currently ranked #2 she is another one with a recent bad form of 2-5 in her last 7. The 2 she beat were Peterson, who has not done well either, and Stosur who has lost 7 of her last 9.

Monica Puig has been another money maker. She is 6-2 in her last 8 matches with a loss each to decent players (Kenin and Garcia).

[Conqueror]

Tailing that Puig pick. Woz's form is questionable plus Puig is good at winning games she has no business winning as well as losing games she has no business losing.

[Conqueror]

Posting this 10-teamer here so it could get some luck:

09/25/2018
09:42 PM

PARLAY (10 TEAMS)

24.50

8766.15

• Risk: 24.50 - Win: 8766.15
• MLB - [304680] SK Wyverns -1.5 -120 ( ACTION )
  Game start 09/25/2018 10:00 PM
• MU - [8246] B Tomic +100 (L Harris vrs B Tomic)
  Game start 09/26/2018 12:00 AM
• MU - [8440] D Shapovalov -190 (Y Nishioka vrs D Shapovalov)
  Game start 09/26/2018 03:30 AM
• MU - S Kenin vrs A Sabalenka: Match set handicap
  [957502] A Sabalenka -1.5 +110 (S Kenin vrs A Sabalenka)
  Game start 09/25/2018 10:00 PM
• MU - [8813] Q Wang -165 (Q Wang vrs D Gavrilova)
  Game start 09/25/2018 11:00 PM
• MU - [8941] T Maria -120 (T Maria vrs M Gasparyan)
  Game start 09/25/2018 10:00 PM
• MU - [8944] V Zvonareva -185 (F Stollar vrs V Zvonareva)
  Game start 09/25/2018 11:30 PM
• MU - [8801] D Cibulkova -115 (D Cibulkova vrs D Kasatkina)
  Game start 09/26/2018 12:30 AM
• MU - [410110] Molchanov D. / Zelenay I. -125 (Gong M. / Zhang Z. vrs Molchanov D. / Zelenay I.)
  Game start 09/25/2018 10:00 PM
• MU - [410231] Hsieh S-W./Mattek-Sands B. +100 (Hsieh S-W./Mattek-Sands B. vrs Hlavackova A./Strycova B.)
  Game start 09/25/2018 10:00 PM

[QuantumLeap]

Posting this 10-teamer here so it could get some luck:

09/25/2018
09:42 PM

PARLAY (10 TEAMS)

24.50

8766.15

• Risk: 24.50 - Win: 8766.15
• MLB - [304680] SK Wyverns -1.5 -120 ( ACTION )
  Game start 09/25/2018 10:00 PM
• MU - [8246] B Tomic +100 (L Harris vrs B Tomic)
  Game start 09/26/2018 12:00 AM
• MU - [8440] D Shapovalov -190 (Y Nishioka vrs D Shapovalov)
  Game start 09/26/2018 03:30 AM
• MU - S Kenin vrs A Sabalenka: Match set handicap
  [957502] A Sabalenka -1.5 +110 (S Kenin vrs A Sabalenka)
  Game start 09/25/2018 10:00 PM
• MU - [8813] Q Wang -165 (Q Wang vrs D Gavrilova)
  Game start 09/25/2018 11:00 PM
• MU - [8941] T Maria -120 (T Maria vrs M Gasparyan)
  Game start 09/25/2018 10:00 PM
• MU - [8944] V Zvonareva -185 (F Stollar vrs V Zvonareva)
  Game start 09/25/2018 11:30 PM
• MU - [8801] D Cibulkova -115 (D Cibulkova vrs D Kasatkina)
  Game start 09/26/2018 12:30 AM
• MU - [410110] Molchanov D. / Zelenay I. -125 (Gong M. / Zhang Z. vrs Molchanov D. / Zelenay I.)
  Game start 09/25/2018 10:00 PM
• MU - [410231] Hsieh S-W./Mattek-Sands B. +100 (Hsieh S-W./Mattek-Sands B. vrs Hlavackova A./Strycova B.)
  Game start 09/25/2018 10:00 PM

Excellent! I hope you cash.

[Conqueror]

Will be keeping an eye on this Jorovic girl.

[Conqueror]

You seem to have the phone numbers of some of these girls. You call them, and they tell you their intentions.

[QuantumLeap]

3-1

Danilovic -121 over Potapova
I subscribed to wtatv.tv so I can watch these matches. It's only $9.99 per month so it's a great deal to get a better insight on these ladies. I caught myself saying "I can't believe I'm spending good money betting on two 17 year-olds playing tennis in Uzbekhistan!"

Potapova was definitely the better player in this match. Danilovic had some very good shots and she will be a really good player in coming years but she just didn't have enough in this one.

Qiang Wang -155 over Gavrilova
Easy winner with this one.

Barthel -129 over Rodina
It went 3 sets with this match but Barthel was able to pull it out.

Puig +177 over Woz
Before I speak about Puig I just have to say Woz isn't herself for some reason. She's on my "Is she injured?" list. Even the announcers mentioned how she didn't run down some volleys that she ordinarily would have. She had over 30 unforced errors.

Puig looked good and deserved to win this match. She faces Qiang Wang in the semis so I'm not sure who to back in that one.

[QuantumLeap]

You seem to have the phone numbers of some of these girls. You call them, and they tell you their intentions.

Yeah, but I couldn't get a hold of Danilovic. She wasn't returning my calls for some reason. Maybe she was going to tank it and didn't want me to know.

[Sweetness]

Amazing job Quantum! Keep giving those girls a ring and I'll keep tailing

[QuantumLeap]

Amazing job Quantum! Keep giving those girls a ring and I'll keep tailing

Danilovic just called me and was in tears. She said to say hi to Conqueror and Sweetness for her and to say she was sorry she tanked the match.

[Conqueror]

Danilovic just called me and was in tears. She said to say hi to Conqueror and Sweetness for her and to say she was sorry she tanked the match.

Tell her we've pardoned her but that she should cooperate next time.

[QuantumLeap]

Just to update my record in this thread-

I started 0-6-1.
I almost thought about quitting but I hit a pretty good streak before starting this thread which is why I started it.

Then starting with the Kenin pick I went 13-2.

I'm a square bettor, I bet favorites mostly. So I look for the matches/games where there is a big disparity between opponents like in Women's Tennis and College Football. I then count on the favorite to cover the spread.

[QuantumLeap]

I don't really see anything that stands out to me tonight. As I mentioned in my previous post, I look for disparity in talent. When it comes to this stage of the tournament I can't pick a player who is decidedly better than another.

[QuantumLeap]

Tomljonovic/Puig (parlay)

Qiang Wang -167 over Kontaveit
Can anyone beat this Wang? ;-)

Linette -127 over McHale
I've kind of been fading McHale over the past few months.

[Conqueror]

Tomljonovic/Puig (parlay)

Qiang Wang -167 over Kontaveit
Can anyone beat this Wang? ;-)

Linette -127 over McHale
I've kind of been fading McHale over the past few months.

Wang doesn't lose in China. It's against the law (lol).

I agree the matchups are much more even than in previous stages. I'm still debating Kozlova and Nishioka.

[Conqueror]

Posting this parlay here so it could enjoy the blessings of your thread:


[8452] Y Nishioka (C Norrie vrs Y Nishioka)
+110
MU
[8957] K Kozlova (K Kozlova vrs A Potapova)
+105
MU
[509070] Alvark (Meralco Bolts vrs Alvark)
-8.5 -115
Risking: $161.42 To Win: $1137.76


Alvark is a basketball team in the Asian Championship.

[QuantumLeap]

Tomljonovic/Puig (parlay)

Qiang Wang -167 over Kontaveit
Can anyone beat this Wang? ;-)

Linette -127 over McHale
I've kind of been fading McHale over the past few months.

I had second thoughts about betting on Puig again after her resounding defeat by Q. Wang. Sure enough she falters here. Qiang Wang retired so this is 0-2 so far.

The Linette/McHale match has been postponed to.Friday night (US time) so I'll post my record for this series of bets after that match has finished.

[QuantumLeap]

Sorry ahead of time for all the favorites:

Tomljanovich -161 over Yastremska
Yastremska has beaten a few good players (Bogdan and Parmentier) but she's always done it when they are on a losing streak. Other than that she hasn't beaten anyone ranked above her.

I've made a few dollars betting Tomljanovich. She looked strong in her last match.

Cirstea -143 over Hercog
Hercog has poor recent form only beating poorer ranked players.

Cirstea's recent form seems hit-or-miss but her losses have come against good players.

Siniakova -140 over Pera
Pera is another one who has only beaten decent players when they are on a losing streak.

Siniakova has won 8 out of her last 10 matches and some of her wins have come against decent players.

[QuantumLeap]

Since I bet a lot of favorites I figure I would keep track of my units as well as my W/L record. Here are the results of all my picks in this thread including units.

13-8-1, +1.48

-1.00 Bautista-Agut
-1.00 Tsitsipas
-1.00 Anisimova/Puig/Kuzmova +120
-1.00 Kuzmova -4.5
Push Rodina +6
-1.00 Sakkari +4
Opp retired Xiyu Wang -2.5
-1.00 Puig/Hsieh/Peterson +142
0.91 Kenin -2.5
0.87 Gibbs -115
-1.00 Hsieh -3.5 LIVE
0.81 Astra Sharma -124
Opp retired Peterson -2.5
1.05 Stollar +105
0.69 Vekic -145
0.58 Q. Wang -171
0.81 Potapova -124
1.12 Jorovich +112
0.53 Lapko -190
0.91 Rodina -3.5
-1.00 Danilovic -121
0.65 Q. Wang -155
0.78 Bartel -129
1.77 Puig +177
-1.00 Tomljonovic/Puig
-1.00 Qiang Wang -167

[QuantumLeap]

OK, now that I've accounted for my picks in this thread it's time for another favorite, this one from ITF Land:

Myrtille Georges -202 over Clara Burel &
Georges is a 27 year old veteran with career earnings of over $300,000. She is playing a 17 year old girl.

This is originally the type of bet I intended to make and not the ones above but I guess I got carried away. I looked for another match I could parlay with this but didn't want to force it so I'm having this bet stand on its own.

[QuantumLeap]

1-3 yesterday.

Started 0-6-1.
Then went 13-2.
Now I'm 1-5.

I thought about stopping for awhile but I saw a few good ones. Will post shortly.

[QuantumLeap]

Hsieh over Babos/Kasatkina over Siegemund (parlay) -125
Babos has lost 10 out of her last 11 matches while Hsieh has only lost to Kenin and Tomljanovich.

Siegemund has lost her last 5 matches including her last match which was against the 258th ranked player.

[QuantumLeap]

It looks like both Hsieh and Kasatkina are dragging ass. I think I see what is going on here. The better players aren't really giving an effort. Hmmmmmm...

Pera +252 over Keys
Y. Wang +310 over Garcia
Jabeur +302 over Halep
Bencic +225 over Woz

[QuantumLeap]

I love wtatv.tv! It costs me $9.99 per month but I would easily pay $100 per month for it. Why? I just watched Caroline Garcia go head-to-head with Wang Yafan. Garcia is the defending champion and had a 6-5 lead until Wang was able to cause it to go into a tie-breaker. The tie-breaker ended at 12-10 in favor of Garcia but Want had some set points as well.

I don't know who will win this match but that set of points was so entertaining. I just feel so bad that the stands are empty for matches like this. I wish I was independently wealthy and could fly to these venues to see these matches first-hand.

More to come.

[QuantumLeap]

I cannot believe what I just saw in this Wang/Garcia match. Three straight aces by Wang to take the set to 5-2.

[QuantumLeap]

It looks like both Hsieh and Kasatkina are dragging ass. I think I see what is going on here. The better players aren't really giving an effort. Hmmmmmm...

Pera +252 over Keys
Y. Wang +310 over Garcia
Jabeur +302 over Halep
Bencic +225 over Woz

Keys beat Pera and Garcia outlasted Wang in what should have been an easy victory but these good players must be getting tired.

Halep quit after 1 set so I won that one! Bencic/Woz is still pending.