Challenger Discussion Thread

DavidGoliath5003 · 06-03-18, 11:54 AM

Thanks for this Beefcake. Ill do my best by posting what i see.

Honeybadger44 · 06-04-18, 01:59 AM

Grass challengers could offer some nice value. Not much data on these players and their success on grass, causing market to be all over the place in some cases.

Moraings game should work well on grass. Huge serve. Nice flat backhand with short angle. Lefty slice serve from ad side...

Jay clarke is very talented but might be getting too much respect here because he is a brit. His game is neither big nor flat to make a big result on grass atm, imho. And he has a very tough opponent today.

beefcake · 06-07-18, 10:21 AM

Dellien in the semis in Kazakstan..guy is literally on nuclear fire.Klizan took a turd dive like I thought .Balazs in the semis.Old man Melzer making a run on grass.

DavidGoliath5003 · 06-07-18, 10:50 AM

Hey Beefcake, what do you think of Jahn vs Vatutin?

Honeybadger44 · 06-07-18, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

Dellien in the semis in Kazakstan..guy is literally on nuclear fire.Klizan took a turd dive like I thought .Balazs in the semis.Old man Melzer making a run on grass.

Yeah, Melzer made run over two guys which are not grass courts specialists. But there was some noticable rust in his game, especially when points got out of that serve/return period. And that is going to be a problem vs another grass court natural like Dan Evans.

beefcake · 06-07-18, 07:30 PM

Yeah Evans should take him.Not a bad price of just over -200

beefcake · 06-07-18, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by DavidGoliath5003

Hey Beefcake, what do you think of Jahn vs Vatutin?

Sorry man, just saw this.Match is 1 set all..Could be either guy I guess..

DavidGoliath5003 · 06-07-18, 11:24 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

Sorry man, just saw this.Match is 1 set all..Could be either guy I guess..

Yeah i took Jahn

kenshirooo · 06-08-18, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by DavidGoliath5003

Yeah i took Jahn

I took him too. Let's hope he makes it. Any thoughts for today challengers ? I think Evans is gonna beat Melzer.

Honeybadger44 · 06-08-18, 02:11 AM

Originally posted by kenshirooo

I took him too. Let's hope he makes it. Any thoughts for today challengers ? I think Evans is gonna beat Melzer.

He probably should, but is there really value at -200? I don't know. Despite some rust, I still gotta be careful going against seasoned grass court specialist like Melzer. Probably going to wait for a better in-play opportunity.

And if you are willing to lay that type of juice, I think De Minaur might be a better selection. Him and Bhambri have similar playing sytle, only that De Minaur is better mover, plays with more energy, handles situations at the net really well... Bhambri is a good bet vs guys who likes to force things, because he's good at countering stuff and redirecting until opponent commits error. He ain't getting much of that from Alex today I belive.

Honeybadger44 · 06-08-18, 02:16 AM

Originally posted by kenshirooo

I took him too. Let's hope he makes it. Any thoughts for today challengers ? I think Evans is gonna beat Melzer.

He probably should, but is there really value at -200? I don't know. Despite some rust, I still gotta be careful going against seasoned grass court specialist like Melzer. Probably going to wait for a better in-play opportunity.

And if you are willing to lay that type of juice, I think De Minaur might be a better selection. Him and Bhambri have similar playing sytle, only that De Minaur is better mover, plays with more energy, handles situations at the net really well... Bhambri is a good bet vs guys who likes to force things, because he's good at countering stuff and redirecting until opponent commits error. He ain't getting much of that from Alex today I belive.

beefcake · 06-08-18, 12:56 PM

Dellien finally lost.Thought something was up with Cid of only +175

Honeybadger44 · 06-08-18, 11:46 PM

Roberto Cid at +220 no brainer. Hanfmann is actually a easier match up for him then Dellien was yesterday.

DavidGoliath5003 · 06-08-18, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by Honeybadger44

Roberto Cid at +220 no brainer. Hanfmann is actually a easier match up for him then Dellien was yesterday.

Yup i just posted the same thing.... i took Cid 1st set @2.74

Honeybadger44 · 06-08-18, 11:53 PM

Good luck then

DavidGoliath5003 · 06-09-18, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by Honeybadger44

Good luck then

Good luck as well

nuxx?? · 06-09-18, 12:11 AM

I've got +300 ML live at my bookie, worth hitting?

nuxx?? · 06-09-18, 12:13 AM

Also, any thoughts on Poznan/Surbiton semis? I havent followed any challangers this week.

Honeybadger44 · 06-09-18, 04:14 AM

Not sure about Poznan. I watched surbiton quite a bit. Evans looks good on grass. Chardy is not that good, but hides behind his serve really well so far. So, slight edge to Evans but odds are already there.

Think De Minaur comes through, but might be slightly bias there. Always liked the De Minaurs energy and how he fights.

DavidGoliath5003 · 06-09-18, 05:37 AM

Originally posted by Honeybadger44

Not sure about Poznan. I watched surbiton quite a bit. Evans looks good on grass. Chardy is not that good, but hides behind his serve really well so far. So, slight edge to Evans but odds are already there.

Think De Minaur comes through, but might be slightly bias there. Always liked the De Minaurs energy and how he fights.

I could see this going 3 sets. Its always tought to guage Ebden, he beat Stakhovsky who is a decent grass player(for his level) Dminaur trying to get into the main draw of wimbeldon A-ranking 105.... there should be incentive here for him. Top 100 avoid qualification

beefcake · 06-09-18, 06:05 AM

Didn't post any games on the women's challys this week but some croatia girl tena Lukas is in the semis of the Bol tourney.little home support i would think from the crowd and she is +350 at 11a.m. Eastern time.Might be worth a dabble at +1.5 sets at I'm guessing at even money

kenshirooo · 06-09-18, 12:59 PM

I'm thinking about combining Hurkacz and De minaur tomorrow. Any thoughts ?

beefcake · 06-09-18, 01:11 PM

I like it!

kenshirooo · 06-09-18, 04:18 PM

Would you add something to this parlay beefcake ?

DavidGoliath5003 · 06-09-18, 06:31 PM

Yeah both guys are in solid form... Hurcaz and D’minaur will be top 70 i think by years end

beefcake · 06-09-18, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by kenshirooo

Would you add something to this parlay beefcake ?

No man, stick with the 2

beefcake · 06-09-18, 08:03 PM

Figure i would get up next weeks tourneys..busy day on Sunday

Caltanissetta

, Italy 127,000 purse CLAY

Clay season seems to never end if you play the Minor Circuit...I swear Italy has the most challis of any country. Call this a hunch but I have noticed in the past that the Wildcard Italians seem to cause upsets fairly often..
Gulbis in playing and IF(big IF) decides to play his best can win this and finally get a lot of his ranking back with the 125 point first prize.I see old man Estrella Burgos is playing and trying to hang on.Daniel could be spent having to play in a final tomorrow.Maybe fade him.

Nottingham 127,000 Grass

The biggest chally grass purse I think. I see that Duckworth trying to continue his comeback.Before his injury he had a good record on grass.Kozlov is in shitty form so maybe take James.De Minaue again is a top seed. if he wins tomm could be a juicy price on old man Jurgen.And Stephan Robert is playing grass..LOL

Lyon 64,000 Clay

Looking like the dregs of the Dirt rats again...Young Melzer if he gets his game on might roll all the way if he wants to.Dont really see much as the top prixe is only 90 points...so motivation might be hard to find. maybe some Wildcard or qualie takes this..

Almaty...50,000

The Doubefaultistan tour continues..Dam my hats off to these guys for playing all the way out in Bum Fukk Egypt..
Hanafman and Dellien again are here..Cid should be full of confidence and roll Duck he Lee...
Careful with this one gents..Real men play Grass this time of year..

DavidGoliath5003 · 06-09-18, 10:08 PM

Skugor ML @1.70
Harrison ML @1.84

Hurckaz ML @2.10
D’Minaur ML @1.77

Those would be my challenger plays tomorrow

nuxx?? · 06-09-18, 10:12 PM

Could Hurkacz potentially be tired?

DavidGoliath5003 · 06-09-18, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by nuxx??

Could Hurkacz potentially be tired?

Doubt it, hes young and hes only played 3 days in a row... judging by the duration of the matches the points were not long... 2 hours was his longest match. Taro hasnt been great this tourney he keeps barely getting by.

Honeybadger44 · 06-10-18, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

Figure i would get up next weeks tourneys..busy day on Sunday

...

Nottingham 127,000 Grass

The biggest chally grass purse I think. I see that Duckworth trying to continue his comeback.Before his injury he had a good record on grass.Kozlov is in shitty form so maybe take James.De Minaue again is a top seed. if he wins tomm could be a juicy price on old man Jurgen.And Stephan Robert is playing grass..LOL

...

Don't rule him out that fast. his second serve is an issue for sure. But everything else in his game works fine on grass. Moves side to side well and hits a really good flat forehand on the run, which can be deadly on grass. has good hands to counter those low bounces on grass.

i am not thrilled about the match up vs Bublik, but there might be some favorable spots for backing him in next few weeks on grass,

beefcake · 06-10-18, 06:19 PM

Good info thanks!

beefcake · 06-12-18, 07:25 PM

Dam Delliens run came to a halt.+700 dog beat him.

Kinda like Balazs tomm at about -133.Dont read much into Rolas win as Anderozzi prob could have gave 2 shiits about the match.

beefcake · 06-14-18, 06:26 PM

Wow, 4 nice sized dogs in Lyon tommorrow.Tatlot and Muller for some home cooking dogs>