ATP: China Open and Japan Open

[QuantumLeap]

Goffin -5 over Ebden

Isner -3 over Mayer

Harrison +4 1/2 over Cilic

[QuantumLeap]

Khachanov +5 over Nadal

A. Zverev -3.5 over Fognini

Harrison +4.5 over Cilic

Kyrgios -4 over Darcis

[QuantumLeap]

I think I like Lu here too..gasket did play some good matches but I could see him struggle here

Gasket was too much for Lu in the opening set, winning 6-0.

[QuantumLeap]

Goffin -5 over Ebden
Loss
When will I learn to not bet these big favorites. I had Goffin in a 3-way parlay so at least he came through in the win for that bet. I should have posted the parlay instead of this spread bet.

Isner -3 over Mayer
Easy winner.

Khachanov +5 over Nadal
Loss
Failed to cover by 1 game. I didn't follow this. I'll have to check out what happened.

A. Zverev -3.5 over Fognini
Easy winner.

Today: 2-2
This thread: 16-8

[QuantumLeap]

Looks like I had Harrison listed twice. I only have 1 bet for Harrison. Both Harrison and Kyrgios go off tonight:

Harrison +4.5 over Cilic

Kyrgios -4 over Darcis

[eastvan09]

BOL tonight!

[QuantumLeap]

BOL tonight!

Thanks!

I have a pick here that won't count toward my record. It's just a fun ITF match. Two days ago I saw that Astra Sharma destroyed Kimberly Birrell 6-0, 6-2. Birrell was a -161 favorite but was favored by much more earlier on. Yesterday Sharma then had a little trouble in the 2nd set against the 3rd seed but prevailed.

Tonight she plays the 5th seed Erika Sema who is a bit of a looker. Sema has gone 3 sets against her previous opponents. Look for Sharma, a Vanderbilt student, to win this one outright.

[QuantumLeap]

Strycova +4 over Kvitova

[Kiddpokerr]

What do you think about Isner, Johnson, Goffin and Manna?

[QuantumLeap]

What do you think about Isner, Johnson, Goffin and Manna?

Isner looked great last night. I wrote a little bit about him in another thread. He usually counts on his powerful serve but he is now using position on the court to be able to set up a powerful volley.

Goffin looked perplexed last night falling 0-6 in his first set. Even after winning his second set he struggled in the third.

I've followed Johnson a little bit but really haven't seen him play. He seems either inconsistent or else can't beat the big boys.

I haven't followed Manna at all.

What are your thoughts on these four?

[QuantumLeap]

Thanks!

I have a pick here that won't count toward my record. It's just a fun ITF match. Two days ago I saw that Astra Sharma destroyed Kimberly Birrell 6-0, 6-2. Birrell was a -161 favorite but was favored by much more earlier on. Yesterday Sharma then had a little trouble in the 2nd set against the 3rd seed but prevailed.

Tonight she plays the 5th seed Erika Sema who is a bit of a looker. Sema has gone 3 sets against her previous opponents. Look for Sharma, a Vanderbilt student, to win this one outright.

Sharma wins 6-4, 6-3. One to watch in the future.

[QuantumLeap]

Gasquet -1 1/2 +113 over Goffin

Gotta go with momentum here even though my metrics show Goffin should win.

[QuantumLeap]

Harrison +4.5 over Cilic
Loss

Kyrgios -4 over Darcis
Darcis retired

Strycova +4 over Kvitova
Loss by 1

Gasquet -1 1/2 +113 over Goffin
Loss
This was a weird one as discussed in the other thread on this match. Gasquet was easily handling Goffin and then they decided to close the roof because of thread of rain. Goffin won something like 10 games out of the next 12 which would lead him to win the match. You can't cap a roof closure.

Today: 0-3
This thread: 16-11

[QuantumLeap]

Same thing happened in these tournaments that happened in the previous tournamnet. I did very well early on and then later in the tournaments I didn't do so well. The reason for this is because I my betting style looks for stark differences between players. When the tournaments get toward the end the talent is closer and therefore harder to find the differences. So I'm going to be very selective in my bets until the next tournament begins.

I'm also going to do some study of my bets and see which ones do better. I'm afraid I may not have a good read on the ladies and may just bet on the men if my study shows poor results in the ladies matches.

[gambleForLife]

Darcis retired, didn't your book voided the bet?

[QuantumLeap]

Darcis retired, didn't your book voided the bet?

I was just looking for the bet to confirm and couldn't find it. They don't even list the cancellation. That explains it. Thanks for the input. I'll change my record.

[gambleForLife]

No problem. Sucks though, as Kyrgios was surely gonna cover it.
By the way, I also tend to do better early on. I'm trying to discipline myself to not bet that much on later stages, but it's hard to pass action sometimes lol.

[QuantumLeap]

No problem. Sucks though, as Kyrgios was surely gonna cover it.
By the way, I also tend to do better early on. I'm trying to discipline myself to not bet that much on later stages, but it's hard to pass action sometimes lol.

That's good feedback about doing better earlier on. It only makes sense. My betting method is to find opponents who are quite a bit different in talent. The later on in tournaments the closer the talent is and the harder (for me anyway) it is to see who to bet on.

I still may make a few bets later in the tournament though. I like having just one thread per tournament, or in this case, two tournaments if they are running concurrently. I'll start another thread for the next tournament. That way we can keep track how far along in the tournament we are.

[QuantumLeap]

Here are the results from the last 2 weeks (some matches were not posted on SBR):

Women's bets: 5-7
Big ML parlays: 4-2
Favorites of -4 or more: 0-1 and 1 retired
Favorites of -3.5 or less: 3-0

So maybe I'll limit the big favorites to spreads of -3.5 or less and if the spread is larger then take it in a parlay with another big favorite.

[gambleForLife]

That's good feedback about doing better earlier on. It only makes sense. My betting method is to find opponents who are quite a bit different in talent. The later on in tournaments the closer the talent is and the harder (for me anyway) it is to see who to bet on.

I still may make a few bets later in the tournament though. I like having just one thread per tournament, or in this case, two tournaments if they are running concurrently. I'll start another thread for the next tournament. That way we can keep track how far along in the tournament we are.

Besides all you said, I think lines are not that sharp in the beginning of tournaments, especially ATP 250, qualifying rounds or matches involving players that are not that famous. But for sure there's still value in later stages, I think the games are just harder to cap.

[rgrant2214]

Any leans tonight?

[QuantumLeap]

Besides all you said, I think lines are not that sharp in the beginning of tournaments, especially ATP 250, qualifying rounds or matches involving players that are not that famous. But for sure there's still value in later stages, I think the games are just harder to cap.

More great info. Thanks again for contributing.

[QuantumLeap]

Any leans tonight?

Garcia +3 1/2 over Kvitova

Also taking Halep but not at -4 1/2. I will parlay her with someone else in my Shanghai thread and will post both here and there.

Sorry for breaking things up a bit but having one thread per time period is easier to follow and there should be much of the cross-posting.

[QuantumLeap]

Garcia +3 1/2 over Kvitova

Also taking Halep but not at -4 1/2. I will parlay her with someone else in my Shanghai thread and will post both here and there.

Sorry for breaking things up a bit but having one thread per time period is easier to follow and there should be much of the cross-posting.

Parlay:
Coric over Laaksonen (Shanghai Open) & Halep over Ostapenko
(I also posted this in the Shanghai thread but this will only count as 1 bet).

[QuantumLeap]

Sharma wins 6-4, 6-3. One to watch in the future.

Sharma won again tonight (Friday) 6-3, 6-3. I didn't have the guts to take her since tonight's opponent was a bit better than her previous opponent.

[QuantumLeap]

As a gambler, every once in awhile you just have to say "what the fu(k!" What good is gambling if you don't take a chance every once in awhile?

McLachlan/Uchiyama +190 over Gonzalez/Peralta

[jtoler]

I agree you gotta sniff the plus odds like that, especially in doubles where there are more "upsets".

[QuantumLeap]

Garcia +3 1/2 over Kvitova
WINNER
Garcia wins outright.

Coric over Laaksonen (Shanghai Open) & Halep over Ostapenko
Loss
Coric lost 6-7, 4-6. Halep won

McLachlan/Uchiyama +190 over Gonzalez/Peralta
WINNER!

Today: 2-1
This thread: 18-12

[QuantumLeap]

I agree you gotta sniff the plus odds like that, especially in doubles where there are more "upsets".

Going to go with the dog on the ML again. This time with my girl.

Astra Sharma +159 over Hozumi
This match goes off at 9pm Eastern.

[gambleForLife]

Any leans on the finals?
I went 1/2 unit Kyrgios ML (I hate him, but he seems to care about this tournament and usually steps up against top players) and 1u Goffin (-3) (he still doesn't look 100%, but Mannarino is kind of a choker in finals. And Goffin is superior in every aspect. Line moved to 3.5)

[QuantumLeap]

Any leans on the finals?
I went 1/2 unit Kyrgios ML (I hate him, but he seems to care about this tournament and usually steps up against top players) and 1u Goffin (-3) (he still doesn't look 100%, but Mannarino is kind of a choker in finals. And Goffin is superior in every aspect. Line moved to 3.5)

I lean to Kyrgios but I just can't bet him against Nadal, not at this point in a tournament.

I lean Goffin. I've seen him play his last 3 matches and he is one of the best mechanics in the game today. In other words, he hits some of the most accurate shots and plays the angles better than anyone out there, in my opinion. I agree with you about Mannarino. In fact, I don't think he's even that good, especially compared to who is in the tournament now.

I'll probably put a little on the -3 1/2 but won't post it as an official play.

I'll be taking Garcia later and will post it here.

[gambleForLife]

Thanks man. BOL to you.
Mannarino forehand is one of the ugliest shots ever, but he seems to fare well against aggressive players. Hope Goffin's consistency is too much for him though.

[QuantumLeap]

Thanks man. BOL to you.
Mannarino forehand is one of the ugliest shots ever, but he seems to fare well against aggressive players. Hope Goffin's consistency is too much for him though.

Thanks. BOL to you too.

Garcia +4 over Halep

[QuantumLeap]

Any leans on the finals?
I went 1/2 unit Kyrgios ML (I hate him, but he seems to care about this tournament and usually steps up against top players) and 1u Goffin (-3) (he still doesn't look 100%, but Mannarino is kind of a choker in finals. And Goffin is superior in every aspect. Line moved to 3.5)

You talked me into it:

Goffin -3 1/2 over Mannarino

[gambleForLife]

let's cash this