Toke Up. Who's Ready For Grass?

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-07-09, 06:42 PM

Goodall +100 (Muller)
The British wildcard comes into the Queen's Club tourney off a nice run in Nottingham on the grass surface where he made the semifinals. Muller lost in the opener in that tournament and Goodall eventually beat the opponent who KO'ed Muller. Muller is under .500 on this surface and has only won a single grass court match in the last two years. Goodall plays mostly challenger level events, but does play a lot of grass court tournaments in the UK which should give him a leg up here. If he can adjust to playing a left hander and get up early, I think he can take this.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-07-09, 06:44 PM

Best value I see is Chardy at -130. Ex-wimbledon juniors champ, vs Querrey (whose grass game is rather like a drunk on rollerskates).

Also like Seppi at -175, he's the king of reliable around those odds, whereas Ginepri has been hopeless for most of the last year (excluding Madrid indoors), and really is pretty weak on grass.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-07-09, 06:50 PM

Yeah I liked Chardy too, hadn't really looked at that a ton yet. Just know Querrey is like 2-7 on grass and lost to Juan Carlos Ferrero at Wimbledon last year I think. JCF!

**BobHarvey** · 06-07-09, 11:34 PM

EP,

Any thoughts on the Becker/Hanescu match?

**Tchocky** · 06-08-09, 12:03 AM

I'm taking the week off. Too many variables coming off clay season and playing on grass. I'll weigh this week's results and wait for Wimby. FYI...The Tennis Channel is showing the AEGON tourneys later this week.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-08-09, 12:18 AM

Originally posted by BobHarvey

EP,

Any thoughts on the Becker/Hanescu match?

All the money is going on Becker. He's obviously got some skills on the surface. He beat Davydenko in straight sets at Wimbledon last year and took Verdasco to 5 sets at Wimbledon in 2007. I would assume that since he hasn't played a tournament since mid May that he's been working on grass for this tournament. Hanescu has to come in straight from the French Open and really doesn't have much of a career mark on grass. I don't like the match either way, but guessing by the money going on Becker - people think he has a clear edge.

**"Sic"** · 06-08-09, 10:23 AM

with you on Shuettler...Lets cash it...But Shanty is on it so I ripped up my ticket

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-08-09, 09:11 PM

Clement +110 (Melzer)
Clement is a little reminiscent of Schuettler in that he also made a suprise run last year at Wimbledon. Went to the QF and beat Melzer there along the way. Clement was 8-4 on the surface in 2008 and like this year, had no reliable form heading into grass court play. Melzer isn't useless on the surface as he went 5-3 in 2008, but Clement boasts a 32-18 all-time record on this stuff and has really been pretty solid on grass since 2007. Yeah I said it, solid on grass.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-09-09, 08:54 PM

Wednesday
1. Youzhny -130 (Baghdatis): If both were match fit on this surface, I might be inclined to back Baggy, but I still have serious questions about his conditioning and overall commitment to the game with 2009 not being much to celebrate for the Cypriot. Youzhny meanwhile has been playing better tennis over the last couple months and is very adept on this surface. The Russian's fitness might be the decisive factor here, especially if this goes three.

2. Dimitrov +200 (Simon): I'm going to continue to fade Gilles Simon when the opportunity warrants it. He's just not the same player that burst into the Top 10 over the last portion of 2008 to this point. Dimitrov, a superb youngester from Bulgaria, meanwhile has been setting the grass courts ablaze over the last week plus. He made the QF in Nottingham and took Simon to three sets on the hard courts in the Frenchman's home country when he was playing better back in February, losing 7-5 in the deciding set. Simon actually outplayed him by all the looks of the stats, so it appears inopportune breaks were when did in the youngster. Now four months later, Dimitrov could flip the script.

If Sharapova hadn't been blazing on serve in her opener, I'd think more seriously about the young American Glatch at +500 against her. She's got some game, but if Maria is starting to figure it out with her shoulder than she probably will grind this one out. One to think about at least in my book.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-10-09, 10:02 AM

Youzhny. Winna Winna Chicken Dinna.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-10-09, 02:03 PM

Simon wins in two tie breaking sets 9-7 and 7-5 in the breaks. I think it was HeeHaww who remarked about how fast this surface is playing and the resulting number of tie breaks. Simon-Youzhny tomorrow should be a good one, hoping the books set the price based on Simon being ranked higher again and hang too big of a fave's tag on him. Will be all over Youzhny if that is the case. Think if Simon goes up against someone who has a bit of a return game, he gets ousted. Dimitrov played well on-serve, but couldn't get anything off the Simon serve.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-10-09, 04:55 PM

Struggling to see much for tomorrow (not looked at Youz-Simon yet though, last match on so will cap it tomorrow).

However, couple promising ones on the overs at spreadbetting. Karlovic-Mahut and Lopez-Fish tomorrow, maybe 25-26 lines, but very unlikely we see anything less than 20 games in both, and quite possible could be up at 35+. Stick $100 a game, and could easily net $1k+ profit. Much better than the straight over24.5 line, where you just double your money, and have a good shot at losing it all if it goes something like 76 64 (whereas with the spreads that only loses you $200).

The former match in particular, they've played 5 sets previously, all went to tiebreaks. Lopez also has played 4 tiebreaks in his 5 sets so far at queens. Most importantly, all four guys are horrendously hard to break on fast surfaces - 90%+ holds - and return like garbage (particularly Lopez).

Oh, and Karlovic has 163 aces in his last 5 matches, good luck breaking that :-)

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-10-09, 05:49 PM

Eeeek. I see Pinnacle has Youzhny at -177. Wowza. Don't see that being worth it even though I think he should win. Maybe Lopez at + money over Fish. He's beaten Fish twice and has withstood the tie break pressure both times along with the tense tie break in his last match.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-10-09, 11:57 PM

Lopez +100
Big servers Lopez and Fish. Figure this is gonna be two tie breakers unless one of them just falls apart on serve. Lopez has beaten him twice, including once last year which is more relevant to me. Lopez survived a tough 3 setter and a couple tense tie breaks, could give him the nerve needed for tomorrow's match. Slightly better odds, that's my guy tomorrow.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-11-09, 09:51 AM

Lopez got dominated. Fish gets these mini-runs in him once in a while. Too bad Andy Murray is waiting in the next round.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-11-09, 10:03 PM

Youzhny +135 (Blake)
Pretty evenly matched here on the quick surface. Always siding with the dog in that case and Youzhny has the better return game. 3 setter looks likely here unless JB is just balls out on serve.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-12-09, 10:39 PM

Don't like much at the price straight up on Saturday, but I think Sharapova/Roddick parlay looks solid. I'd be shocked if Blake was able to have success against A-Rod's serve and Sharapova has beaten Li 5-0 head-2-head and looks to be gaining steam. Only pays about .75:1.

**BTTNext** · 06-12-09, 11:22 PM

Kohlschreiber +149 at Pinny.

Very evenly matched here, especially on grass. Will be a close one so at +149 I'd take it any day.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-12-09, 11:39 PM

I'd like to pull the trigger on that, but I just can't. Wish I was at a book for the over though. Pinnacle has it at 23.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-13-09, 06:50 AM

Can't make up my mind on that one. Kohly is obviously higher ranked, and the more natural grass courter imo. He wasn't that good last match though. However, his record as a moderate underdog is outstanding, clearly suits his psychology.

On Haas' side, he's playing as well as he has in years, not just the Federer match, but in beating Tsonga in this tournament he was outstanding.

I went on the under20.5 on the murray match instead.

**bigjonson** · 06-13-09, 07:20 AM

Kohlschreiber up 2-1

Looks sharp.

Haas better get his act together.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-13-09, 07:35 AM

That's a hugely impressive performance by Kohly so far.

Murray also terrific - his serve is incredible this week (80% service points won, more than karlovic!), and when you return like him it's a nasty combination. He's playing as well as I've ever seen him, and it'll take some performance to stop him at Wimbledon.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-14-09, 07:22 PM

Monday (6.15.09)
Kendrick +110 (Santoro)
Not sure how the Eastbourne grass will play compared to the Queen's Club tourney last week where serving was huge. In any case, if this court does play fast then all the better for the bigger serve of Kendrick. Could be working quick as you look at some of the early results. Ljubicic winning in two tie breaks over Seppi. That's a comparable match-up here I think. One a big server, the other a better return game.

Santoro is finishing out a fun little career, but has not put together any favorable results recently. Kendrick was right in his match with Feliciano Lopez last week, losing a couple tie breakers. So long as his serve is on, he's a good shot here IMO.

**Spanks** · 06-14-09, 09:24 PM

I like it ...

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-16-09, 09:28 AM

Tuesday, 6.16.09
Sela -105 (Kunitsyn)
Sela won in a three setter against Kunitsyn on hard courts earlier in 2009. Both breezed in their opening round here. Sela has a slightly better return game and a surprise to me, actually does a bit better on serve than the Kunitsyn, who is considered the more powerful of the two.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-16-09, 01:02 PM

Finally got one!

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-16-09, 11:04 PM

Wednesday looks pretty chalky. The men's match-ups are horrible. Ladies one that interests me is Stosur vs. Wozniacki. 1-1 head-2-head, Stosur beat her at the Eastbourne tourney in 2008 when she didn't have anything close to the form she has now. Wozniacki returned the favor in April on clay in a 3 setter. Stosur -135/Woz +105 at my book. Not sure. Woz has had the more consistent season overall in 2009, but Stosur is on the carry over from the French. Both played well in their 1st round encounters at this tournament. Comes down to the serve. If Wozniacki hits above 70% on both 1st and 2nd serves again like she did in Round 1, she won't lose. Problem is the likelihood of repeating that is low. Leaning Stosur. May wait until morning and see where the lines goes, guessing Stosur gets backed better.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-17-09, 09:20 AM

Exact opposite of what I thought money-wise. Heavy backing on Wozniacki. She's now at -130 with Stosur at +100. Could signify something is up, but the women's side I have noticed is less apt to making the "injury/fix" adjustment than the men's. I'll be an all-day sucker her and stick with Stosur now at a better price.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-17-09, 10:34 AM

Stosur getting skunked 5-0 in the 1st. Hasn't won a single point on 1st serve. Guess I should have followed the money. Don't know if she's hurt or what as I am not watching. Maybe she'll retire.

**"Sic"** · 06-17-09, 10:36 AM

Played Wozniacki +105 Eagles...But earlier I played Bakker

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-17-09, 10:41 AM

I haven't learned my lesson with these retarded line movements yet. Something has to be up in this one. Wozniacki is a solid player and I mean I had this as maybe 55-45 in favor of Stosur, so I didn't think it was a must wager, but this is horrible. Someone must have roofied her last night.

**"Sic"** · 06-17-09, 10:51 AM

Glad I layed off Bammer...Im sure Stosur will come back to open a can just cause Im on Wozniacki

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-17-09, 10:53 AM

I looked at taking Wozniak over Zheng last night. Of course, I laid off and she wins in straights at a great price.

**SBR Lou** · 06-17-09, 10:55 AM

Wozniacki rolling, I don't know why I passed on that. Well I do know, Stosur beat her last year in straight sets at this event and has been in good grass form, but when Wozniacki gets off to fast starts she's just too confident and talented to let it slip away.