2016: Grass court season, Including Wimbledon, picks

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  • fitguy67
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-13-11
    • 5082

    #36
    139 113 +21.812u
    =+7.199%
    of 303u
    as always, good-value tickets...

    unfortunately for me tho'...i slept thru both the posting and the playing-out of this one
    Last edited by fitguy67; 06-14-16, 10:15 AM.
    Comment
    • gorwin068
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 05-16-16
      • 920

      #37
      Originally posted by Jeff_Black
      As always, a great and insightful link

      ATP Halle, Gerry Weber Open 500, R1
      Florian Mayer vs Brian Baker
      Total Score: Over 21.0 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
      Stake: 1u play
      Good call man...
      Comment
      • Jeff_Black
        SBR MVP
        • 04-04-15
        • 3571

        #38
        Thanks, I think it was one of those fortune ones where the bookies couldn't set it too high or too low so we can take advantage of if with the middle one
        Comment
        • Jeff_Black
          SBR MVP
          • 04-04-15
          • 3571

          #39
          In-Play
          ATP London Queens 500, Aegon Championships, R1
          Nick Kyrgios vs Milos Raonic
          Money line: Nick Kyrgios @ 2.32 on Crownbet
          Stake: 1u play

          Not every bookie has odds of a match that is resuming the following day so shop around at your preferred books.
          Comment
          • fitguy67
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-13-11
            • 5082

            #40
            139 114 +20.812u
            =+6.846% of 304u
            Comment
            • Jeff_Black
              SBR MVP
              • 04-04-15
              • 3571

              #41
              ATP Halle 500, Gerry Weber Open, R16
              Roger Federer vs Malek Jaziri
              Total Score: Over 19.5 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
              Stake: 1u play

              ATP London/Queens 500, Aegon Championships, R16
              Andy Murray vs Aljaz Bedene
              Total Score: Over 19.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
              Stake: 1u play

              ATP London/Queens 500, Aegon Championships, R16
              Jiri Vesely vs Milos Raonic
              Handicap: Jiri Vesely +4.0 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
              Stake: 1u play
              Comment
              • fitguy67
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 03-13-11
                • 5082

                #42
                141 115 +21.769U
                =+7.091%
                of 307u
                Comment
                • gorwin068
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 05-16-16
                  • 920

                  #43
                  Originally posted by Jeff_Black
                  ATP Halle 500, Gerry Weber Open, R16
                  Roger Federer vs Malek Jaziri
                  Total Score: Over 19.5 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
                  Stake: 1u play

                  ATP London/Queens 500, Aegon Championships, R16
                  Andy Murray vs Aljaz Bedene
                  Total Score: Over 19.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
                  Stake: 1u play

                  ATP London/Queens 500, Aegon Championships, R16
                  Jiri Vesely vs Milos Raonic
                  Handicap: Jiri Vesely +4.0 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
                  Stake: 1u play
                  Just needed 1 more game for Andy Murray vs Aljaz Bedene to score a hat-trick, unlucky man, good calls
                  Comment
                  • fitguy67
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 03-13-11
                    • 5082

                    #44
                    logistics of life won't allow me to tail consistently anymore for the time being, so i won't be updating anymore

                    should be easy to carry on from my numbers (altho' i did intentionally "lose" all your pushes--which i'd estimate number a few dozen since the start of the year...appearing as they do a few times a month)

                    will continue to check in as often as possible in order to over the units I'm missing out on cuzza da' time-zone and new work-shit considerations...pretty well baseball, hockey, and fighting for me from now on (there are very few things i despise more than basketball and "foot"ball, and betting on that horseshit just magnifies my hatred)...

                    trying to tail the "round the clock" stuff like tennis and soccer usually just ends up pissing me off cuz of the painful periods of disproportionately "missing the winners and hitting the losers" (aka. Murphy's Law )...so i'll just have to go cold turkey altogether (altho' i just may eventually choose one/a few soccer league(s) in a good timezone and work on a system to unearth "value" in ML-draws only...would be nice to get those fukkers on my side for a change, lol)


                    anyhow, Jeff...good luck going forward on your great calendar-2016 campaign
                    Last edited by fitguy67; 06-16-16, 02:21 PM.
                    Comment
                    • Jeff_Black
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-04-15
                      • 3571

                      #45
                      Aye thanks, presence is always welcome anytime!

                      That'll be it from me for this week
                      Comment
                      • Jeff_Black
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-04-15
                        • 3571

                        #46
                        Originally posted by gorwin068
                        Just needed 1 more game for Andy Murray vs Aljaz Bedene to score a hat-trick, unlucky man, good calls
                        Thanks, Yeah he broke back after being broken then that didn't last long. And here I was going to post that regretful moment I didnt go for +5 instead lol.
                        Vesely looked shaky that entire second set (compared to the first) but still somehow bought it into a tiebreaker, good work ol chap!
                        Then you see matches like the one against Edmund (when I was checking) and he was up 5-0 in the 3rd set heh.
                        Comment
                        • Jeff_Black
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-04-15
                          • 3571

                          #47
                          Light duties this week before Wimbledon, few plays here and there, nothing too heavy

                          ATP Aegon Open Nottingham 250, R16
                          Mikhail Youzhny vs Gilles Muller
                          Handicap: Mikhail Youhzny +2.5 @ 1.980 on Pinnacle
                          Stake: 1u play
                          Comment
                          • GoBlue77
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 03-20-11
                            • 9166

                            #48
                            Originally posted by Jeff_Black
                            Light duties this week before Wimbledon, few plays here and there, nothing too heavy

                            ATP Aegon Open Nottingham 250, R16
                            Mikhail Youzhny vs Gilles Muller
                            Handicap: Mikhail Youhzny +2.5 @ 1.980 on Pinnacle
                            Stake: 1u play
                            curious on your thoughts on this play.
                            youhzny has been a challenger series warrior this year, muller is in great form...
                            Comment
                            • Jeff_Black
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-04-15
                              • 3571

                              #49
                              Fair question, grass and especially those chump tournaments before Wimbledon are usually when i'll take the bait on Youhzny and only as a dog. Last year he was out of form then, this year is a bit of a different story, has won some matches, gave Thiem a good fight (which I got on posted here)

                              That said he does get some good surprise upsets or "upsets" depending on how one perceives the favourite to be. Say Lopez who usually should walk into these finals off his serve and volley game he beat as a 3.30 dog. But that also said Lopez had a mediorce grass campaign and is getting on in age. That doesn't stop the bookies from giving him short odds that people and squares will take.

                              Muller...good as he can be and only seems to like winning when I'm not on him haha...Again he's done well too after missing a chunk of the clay season which he doesn't like anyway and has taken advantage of his serve. I hate his technique though, it feels so awkward and that any time he could throw up a batch of unforced errors haha. There seems to be little margin for error between a clean winner/ace and an UE.

                              I just hope in my case the 2.5 line makes for a tight game even if Youhzny doesn't win here
                              Comment
                              • GoBlue77
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 03-20-11
                                • 9166

                                #50
                                tough loss, hook gets ya every time.
                                Comment
                                • Jeff_Black
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-04-15
                                  • 3571

                                  #51
                                  Ahhh yeah ain't that the truth haha
                                  If I had gotten on the over no doubt he would have won 7-5 6-3 or something
                                  Comment
                                  • Jeff_Black
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 04-04-15
                                    • 3571

                                    #52
                                    Alrighty, Wimbledon time!

                                    ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles, R128
                                    Feliciano Lopez vs Rajeev Ram
                                    Total Score: Over 37.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
                                    Stake: 1u play

                                    ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles, R128
                                    Benjamin Becker vs Facundo Bagnis
                                    Handicap: Facundo Bagnis +8.0 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
                                    Stake: 1u play

                                    ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles, R128
                                    Dusan Lajovic vs Dustin Brown
                                    Handicap: Dusan Lajovic +7.0 @ 1.826 on Pinnacle
                                    Stake: 1u play
                                    Comment
                                    • Lightning
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 05-15-16
                                      • 647

                                      #53
                                      I must admit, I've incorporated your style a bit in some of my bets as well. Giving anyone a +8 handicap on grass is tempting to say the least.
                                      Comment
                                      • Jsnep7
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 06-08-16
                                        • 183

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by Jeff_Black
                                        Alrighty, Wimbledon time!

                                        ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles, R128
                                        Feliciano Lopez vs Rajeev Ram
                                        Total Score: Over 37.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
                                        Stake: 1u play

                                        ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles, R128
                                        Benjamin Becker vs Facundo Bagnis
                                        Handicap: Facundo Bagnis +8.0 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
                                        Stake: 1u play

                                        ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles, R128
                                        Dusan Lajovic vs Dustin Brown
                                        Handicap: Dusan Lajovic +7.0 @ 1.826 on Pinnacle
                                        Stake: 1u play
                                        aw yeah buddy, lets enjoy some wimbledon!
                                        Im with you!

                                        Comment
                                        • Jeff_Black
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-04-15
                                          • 3571

                                          #55
                                          Yep, looking forward to it all, lets hope for a better day today

                                          ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles, R128
                                          Federico Delbonis vs Fabio Fognini
                                          Handicap: Federico Delbonis +5.0 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
                                          Stake: 1u play

                                          ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles, R64
                                          Grigor Dimitrov vs Gilles Simon
                                          Moneyline: Gilles Simon @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
                                          Stake: 1u play

                                          ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles R64
                                          Jack Sock vs Robin Haase
                                          Handicap: Robin Haase +5.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
                                          Stake: 1u play

                                          ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles R64
                                          Dan Evans vs Alexandr Dolgopolov
                                          Handicap: Alexandr Dolgopolov -4.5 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
                                          Stake: 1u play
                                          Comment
                                          • Jeff_Black
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-04-15
                                            • 3571

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by Lightning
                                            I must admit, I've incorporated your style a bit in some of my bets as well. Giving anyone a +8 handicap on grass is tempting to say the least.
                                            Of course, sometimes it doesnt work out like it did yesterday haha. As always its a dice roll with whos serving first but it wouldnt have mattered anyway with the last set, ahh well...

                                            I must say Novak is absolutely a bad matchup for Mannarino and he should hammer him but with Novak going 0-9 ATS in Slams during Rounds 1-4 it's hard to back especially considering he is usually in Gear 1 these opening rounds unless he needs to step it up like he did against Anderson last year here or Simon in Australia.
                                            The Under 28 is hell tempting but i'll leave it. No doubt he will win like 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 or something heh.
                                            Comment
                                            • Jsnep7
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 06-08-16
                                              • 183

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by Jeff_Black
                                              ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles R64
                                              Jack Sock vs Robin Haase
                                              Handicap: Robin Haase +5.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
                                              Stake: 1u play
                                              You sure about this bet bro? I'm not to sure about Robin to be honest, he has a very troubled mind. He has a lot of personal shit going on with his former tennis coach being framed for the murder on C. Everink. Surely this will weigh heavily on his focus, all happened very recently.

                                              I was thinking of going for Sock but i haven't seen him play that much recently. Any info?
                                              Comment
                                              • Lightning
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 05-15-16
                                                • 647

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by Jeff_Black
                                                Of course, sometimes it doesnt work out like it did yesterday haha. As always its a dice roll with whos serving first but it wouldnt have mattered anyway with the last set, ahh well...

                                                I must say Novak is absolutely a bad matchup for Mannarino and he should hammer him but with Novak going 0-9 ATS in Slams during Rounds 1-4 it's hard to back especially considering he is usually in Gear 1 these opening rounds unless he needs to step it up like he did against Anderson last year here or Simon in Australia.
                                                The Under 28 is hell tempting but i'll leave it. No doubt he will win like 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 or something heh.
                                                I agree - usually I don't take Djokovic's line in early rounds because he doesn't cover, but I don't bet against it either, because he's that good. I took it today because I thought 28 games was pretty generous, but that's the exception
                                                Comment
                                                • Jeff_Black
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-04-15
                                                  • 3571

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by Jsnep7
                                                  You sure about this bet bro? I'm not to sure about Robin to be honest, he has a very troubled mind. He has a lot of personal shit going on with his former tennis coach being framed for the murder on C. Everink. Surely this will weigh heavily on his focus, all happened very recently.

                                                  I was thinking of going for Sock but i haven't seen him play that much recently. Any info?
                                                  Yeah this was on the back of my mind but I didn't factor into it largely, I saw him play his grass matches before wimbledon, he's going ok and hitting it sweetly, thing is I don't trust sock as a favourite and with Haases serve I'm hoping for a tiebreak or two...
                                                  I've seen him play on grass before and I would love to see how he goes with a consistent hear on the tour on the faster surfaces, his game looks so clean to me when he's hitting it well.
                                                  that said with the possibility of a postponement I am tempted to add the over 37 as I am not sure it will be straight sets either way and sock is as mental midget as anyone!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Jeff_Black
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-04-15
                                                    • 3571

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by Lightning
                                                    I agree - usually I don't take Djokovic's line in early rounds because he doesn't cover, but I don't bet against it either, because he's that good. I took it today because I thought 28 games was pretty generous, but that's the exception
                                                    Hopin for your sake, oath it's going the way or a one break per set though!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Jeff_Black
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 04-04-15
                                                      • 3571

                                                      #61
                                                      I think I am just going to leave it as my plays from yesterday then see how the weather goes. It's supposed to be good
                                                      Hopefully a couple of plays for the later games depending on how things go
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Lightning
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 05-15-16
                                                        • 647

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by Jeff_Black
                                                        Hopin for your sake, oath it's going the way or a one break per set though!
                                                        Yeah. 0-10 for Djokovic ATS now. I underestimated Mannarino - his game style is pretty good on grass. Anyone other than the top 10 and I reckon he would've had a chance at beating them.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Jeff_Black
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-04-15
                                                          • 3571

                                                          #63
                                                          ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles R64
                                                          Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Juan Monaco
                                                          Set Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -2.5 sets @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
                                                          Stake: 1u play

                                                          ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles R32
                                                          Steve Johnson vs Grigor Dimitrov
                                                          Moneyline: Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.729 on Pinnacle
                                                          Stake: 1u play

                                                          ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles R64
                                                          Alexander Zverev vs Mikhail Youhzny
                                                          Handicap: Alexander Zverev -5.0 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
                                                          Stake: 1u play
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Jeff_Black
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-04-15
                                                            • 3571

                                                            #64
                                                            ATP Wimbledon SW19 2000, Mens Singles R32
                                                            John Isner vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
                                                            Moneyline: Jo Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.787 on Pinnacle
                                                            Stake: 1u play
                                                            Comment
                                                            • KingHawkins
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-18-13
                                                              • 1311

                                                              #65
                                                              I tailed big On Tsonga, was great to watch him somehow pull off the victory after being down 2 sets. Any plays for tomorrow? Some high level tennis to be played. The lines make me wonder if Kyrgios and Steve Johnson has good shots at pulling upsets.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Jeff_Black
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-04-15
                                                                • 3571

                                                                #66
                                                                Yah I will post something later after reassessing the weather, hate have players being disrupted due to it and some don't handle it as well, looks like yesterday was good im that regard so hopefully a few plays

                                                                i am surprised Tsonga pulled it off but that said, Isner just isn't a big match player in the slams these days

                                                                how Zverev covered -5 in 5 sets (yeah I know there was a 6-0) I'll never know! lol
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Jeff_Black
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-04-15
                                                                  • 3571

                                                                  #67
                                                                  ATP Wimbledon Championships 2000 SW19, Mens Singles, R16
                                                                  Marin Cilic vs Kei Nishikori
                                                                  Moneyline: Marin Cilic @ 2.25 on Pinnacle
                                                                  Stake: 1u play

                                                                  ATP Wimbledon Championships 2000 SW19, Mens Singles, R16
                                                                  Roger Federer vs Steve Johnson
                                                                  Set Handicap: Roger Federer -2.5 sets @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
                                                                  Stake: 1u play

                                                                  ATP Wimbledon Championships 2000 SW19, Mens Singles, R16
                                                                  Sam Querrey vs Nicholas Mahut
                                                                  Moneyline: Nicholas Mahut @ 1.689 on Pinnacle
                                                                  Stake: 1u play

                                                                  ATP Wimbledon Championships 2000 SW19, Mens Singles, R16
                                                                  David Goffin vs Milos Raonic
                                                                  Total Score: Over 37.5 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
                                                                  Stake: 1u play
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Lightning
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 05-15-16
                                                                    • 647

                                                                    #68
                                                                    I agree with you about Federer - interesting to see how many people think Johnson is a god on grass now. He's beat some good players, but Fed is on another level. Mahut also such a good price - he should be winning this pretty easily.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Jeff_Black
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-04-15
                                                                      • 3571

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Yeah I think they will both win and win well. Federer looked pretty good in his tune up events as well. Aside from his first match it's been a good ride against inferior talent.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Lightning
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 05-15-16
                                                                        • 647

                                                                        #70
                                                                        I must admit, I can see it going to two or three tiebreaks though, because Johnson's been serving well. OVER 35 tempted me for a bit, but I think it'll be close, and I don't like backing plays that might only win by one game or so. Querrey is an average player who had a great day against a great player who had an average day. Mahut is good enough to take advantage. Can't believe the odds are so high.

                                                                        Interesting though - you think Goffin can make inroads against the Raonic serve?
                                                                        Comment
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