Tough Draws for Serena/Nadal/Djoker

**Lightning** · 05-20-16, 06:43 AM

I'm out right now - Wawrinka projected to meet Murray in SF? Cheers

**Jeff_Black** · 05-20-16, 07:18 AM

I think Murray will continue his streak of not making the final
I like that djoker and Nadal are before the final
He's played his better tennis in less of a high pressure environment

**Snowball** · 05-20-16, 08:55 AM

We need high value in order to book futures then have a
change to hedge profitably.. Serena doesn't offer that at 5/12
vs this string of opponents. Joker at 5/7 is a waste of risk.
Even Nadal is overpriced for today's Nadal.
I see value in Muguruza 1/12, Kerber 1/15, and even Radwanska 1/45.
Murray 1/8, Monfils 1/40, Tsonga 1/50, Raonic 1/50
thoughts ?

**rake922** · 05-20-16, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

We need high value in order to book futures then have a
change to hedge profitably.. Serena doesn't offer that at 5/12
vs this string of opponents. Joker at 5/7 is a waste of risk.
Even Nadal is overpriced for today's Nadal.
I see value in Muguruza 1/12, Kerber 1/15, and even Radwanska 1/45.
Murray 1/8, Monfils 1/40, Tsonga 1/50, Raonic 1/50
thoughts ?

what books do you typically wager on tennis at?

**Lightning** · 05-20-16, 09:36 AM

Sportsbet.com.au, bet365.com.au or pinnacle. I shop around for the best prices/lines. Sportsbet have fantastic futures though.

**Jinge** · 05-20-16, 09:48 AM

Djokovic is lucky, his road to the semis is a walk in the park. Only test is Rafa before the final. Lot tougher for Murray to beat Nishi, Wawrinka, Nadal/Novak in a row. Strange that nobody has mentioned Nishikori yet.

Was going to bet Murray medium stakes but after seeing this draw I'll pass. As for the ladies Halep has the most value in my opinion. Her draw seems nice.

**frugalgambler** · 05-20-16, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

We need high value in order to book futures then have a
change to hedge profitably.. Serena doesn't offer that at 5/12
vs this string of opponents. Joker at 5/7 is a waste of risk.
Even Nadal is overpriced for today's Nadal.
I see value in Muguruza 1/12, Kerber 1/15, and even Radwanska 1/45.
Murray 1/8, Monfils 1/40, Tsonga 1/50, Raonic 1/50
thoughts ?

Murray at 1/8 is a steal, but he is at +400 right now at my books. Do not like anything else. Monfils withdrew, btw. Looking at other futures prices, I think they are fair. Barring a resurgence of Wawrinka, Murray should make the final.

**frugalgambler** · 05-20-16, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by Lightning

I'm out right now - Wawrinka projected to meet Murray in SF? Cheers

Yes.

**frugalgambler** · 05-20-16, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Jinge

Djokovic is lucky, his road to the semis is a walk in the park. Only test is Rafa before the final. Lot tougher for Murray to beat Nishi, Wawrinka, Nadal/Novak in a row. Strange that nobody has mentioned Nishikori yet.

Was going to bet Murray medium stakes but after seeing this draw I'll pass. As for the ladies Halep has the most value in my opinion. Her draw seems nice.

Nishikori is basically a Murray with less firepower and stamina. 6-1 h2h for Murray.

**Don West** · 05-20-16, 10:07 AM

Here's one bet I already found for R1

2 team parlay @ 2.24

Baghdatis -250 (Muller)

Dodig -167 (Youzhny)

**Don West** · 05-20-16, 10:19 AM

Here's a second, around same odds

Kyrgios to win 3 sets to 0 (Cecchinato)

Lajovic - 200 (Kudla)

**Don West** · 05-20-16, 10:25 AM

You can also get Nadal, Berdych, and Djokovic to win by 3 sets to 0 at even money.

Groth, Pospisil, Lu. I don't think the first two have ever even won a clay court match.

**Jeff_Black** · 05-20-16, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Jinge

Djokovic is lucky, his road to the semis is a walk in the park. Only test is Rafa before the final. Lot tougher for Murray to beat Nishi, Wawrinka, Nadal/Novak in a row. Strange that nobody has mentioned Nishikori yet.

Was going to bet Murray medium stakes but after seeing this draw I'll pass. As for the ladies Halep has the most value in my opinion. Her draw seems nice.

Lol what? Murray has a piss weak draw R1-4..Rubbish players and an out of form Paire as well as Isner, don't see how that is any tougher then anyone else. I'd rather play Paire/Isner then Bautista

**Don West** · 05-20-16, 11:06 AM

Bautista is extremely tough when on.

**Snowball** · 05-20-16, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by rake922

what books do you typically wager on tennis at?

I primarily use 5D and GTBets, not because they are the best for tennis,
but for other reasons. those lines i posted were from GT. 5D RG futures
are off the board right now.

**frugalgambler** · 05-20-16, 11:39 AM

Looking at the men's draw a bit closer, Djoker and Wawrinka do have pretty easy paths to semis. Nadal will probably have to deal with his nemesis Fognini and then maybe Thiem. Murray has Kyrgios and Nishi in his quarter who can both stretch him.

WTA is always a bit more of a crapshoot. Ultimately, if Serena is on her draw should not be too relevant. Also, Aza might be still injured.

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 05-20-16, 11:50 AM

Love this draw for Joker, hate the price but still played it at -175

**Don West** · 05-20-16, 12:13 PM

Here are some good R1 dogs that I like

Mayer +120 (Chardy)

Fritz + 275 (Coric)

Granollers +160 (Velvet Fog)

Ram +500 (Vesely)

Baker +200 (Bernard Goetz)

Hebert +225 (Zverev)

Busta +125 (Delbonis)

Robert +175 (Big @#$%)

Dutra Silva +410 (Simon)

**Don West** · 05-20-16, 12:18 PM

I also like another two man parlay that pays better than 3.00

Taro Daniel -200 (Klizan)

Kohlschrieber -215 (Almagro)

**Don West** · 05-20-16, 12:36 PM

Also, I think Bouchard will pull that one out against the German. She's French Canadian so you can throw a hometown discount into a mix and play her to win.

I would also parlay Watson, McHale, Begu at +$. Maybe mix in a couple of other medium favorites as well.

The Chinese suck on clay so any time you see one, pencil in their opponent to advance. There are a cluster of them in WTA R1 and I'd blindly fade em all and profit a good deal.

**frugalgambler** · 05-20-16, 01:25 PM

French folks do not consider Bouchard to be their own. They are a snooty bunch that way. In fact, Bouchard was complaining that when she would start to speak French with her Quebec accent her French interlocutor would almost always switch to English. I had a bit of the same problem in France. It was funny when my French was much better than their English, yet they would insist on speaking broken English to me.

**Don West** · 05-20-16, 01:30 PM

So you're Canadian then?

**frugalgambler** · 05-20-16, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by Don West

So you're Canadian then?

Heck no.

**Jinge** · 05-20-16, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Lol what? Murray has a piss weak draw R1-4..Rubbish players and an out of form Paire as well as Isner, don't see how that is any tougher then anyone else. I'd rather play Paire/Isner then Bautista

Novak crushed Bautista 6-2 6-1 two weeks ago, not realy seeing the problem there tbh. Novak can auto pilot to the semis. R1-4 is piss weak for every top 5 player.

**Don West** · 05-20-16, 01:33 PM

I still think she's discounted at Even money. Being back with Saviano should cause an uptick in performance. Willing to throw away the Strycova disaster in Rome.

**beefcake** · 05-20-16, 01:42 PM

I really like simon and Gas can as value longshots to make the final from the bottom half.Even with Murrays form they would not face novak or rafa..Saw them each at around 150-1 or more.

**creampassion** · 05-26-16, 02:53 PM

i would not stake a dime on Serena going by recent analysis

**frugalgambler** · 05-27-16, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by creampassion

i would not stake a dime on Serena going by recent analysis

What analysis ? What are you talking about ?