16-23 May Tournament Futures

**fitguy67** · 05-16-16, 04:57 PM

good contribution...

i followed along at pinny prices and dutched selections together to yield:
(a,b,c,d)=Any One Of the bracketed selections (a,b,c,d) wins

Nurn: (Siegemund,McHale,Larsson)+224.01
Stras: Stephens +350
Thiem (Thiem, Simon)+136.46

easy to determine the bet-sizes needed to yield equal NET payout WHICHEVER selection wins using

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http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator

given Siegemund+450, McHale+1100, Larsson+2200
which convert into 5.5, 12, and 23
if you're not clear on that, visit http://www.intensegambling.com/sport...dds-converter/

plugging in these three decimal prices and setting the "total staked" to 100, you'll see the American odds appear as the "Profit" two lines below

once you know the odds for the composite (3-sectioned) ticket, you then decide your desired risk amount and over-write the "100" you set in "Total Staked"...the risk amounts for each of the three players then show up directly to the right of the decimal prices you entered for each player

my odds for the Nice tourney were Thiem+280, Simon+526 if you want an even easier example to get started/check your understanding of how to use this cool calculator...which is great for all "one winner" tournament-style events such as golf or racing of any-sort when you want to select more than one usually-high-payout selection but want to configure it in such a way that you don't care at all which selection comes thru for you

**Lightning** · 05-16-16, 11:12 PM

That's a good idea! Basically arbitraging them all, so you don't care who wins.

Converting from American to decimal odds is actually pretty easy. I don't even know why you guys have the -xxx when the +xxx works for everything haha.

McHale into the next round but Larsson knocked out. Let's hope.

**frugalgambler** · 05-16-16, 11:31 PM

You do realize that the futures are typically priced below the yield of "parlaying" the ML for each successive round, especially at smaller tournaments ?

**Lightning** · 05-17-16, 01:29 AM

Futures odds are just averages based on probabilities i.e. it really depends on who they're playing. It could be a lot more if good players get through, and less if average players get through. If you bet on Nadal to win the French and Novak gets knocked out second round, his path to the final is so much easier and multiing his games up would most likely yield a lesser return than what you would've got at the start.

It's also a lot of work to keep multiplying each game - it's so much easier to just set and forget. Depends on whether you can be bothered.

**frugalgambler** · 05-17-16, 02:37 AM

Originally posted by Lightning

Futures odds are just averages based on probabilities i.e. it really depends on who they're playing.

In real life, bookies look for every angle possible to rip off the punters. Short-changing on futures is pretty typical. I love futures as much as anybody, but statistically speaking I think they are even worse than teasers, especially at smaller events with little action.

**Lightning** · 05-17-16, 02:49 AM

Oh no doubt they're incredibly hard to pick, but the benefits are, like I said, less work and also that you can't pussy out of rolling it over if the player you bet on has a hard match up. You're right in that the margins are a lot higher though.

**Lightning** · 05-21-16, 09:51 AM

BOOM. Thiem secures a mass profit of 5.75 stakes/units!

**Jinge** · 05-21-16, 10:00 AM

Good job, I was on Zverev +4,5 @2,20, needed 1 game after the second set

**fitguy67** · 05-21-16, 10:30 AM

bang!

here's to future tourney-futures threads like this one!

**Lightning** · 05-21-16, 10:18 PM

Needed that one after a tough week. Brings me back to a small loss for the week, which I can cop. I'll have a new futures post up soon.