Nando Squared

**BTTNext** · 04-24-09, 02:18 AM

Completely agree with your take here, I've got him down tomorrow as well as Davy.

**Cassidy** · 04-24-09, 08:28 AM

One point to take into acount; May 28 2007, González loses against Stepanek at Rolandga; do you know how many defeats he has taken since then? just one, against his black beast Federer at 2008 French Open; all the rest ones were wins. Verdasco sweated some blood yesterday against Berdych, and chilean is far better on clay than czech. I see value on González at +265

**meganie** · 04-24-09, 08:37 AM

I'm going with Gonzalez after seeing Verdasco against Djokovic and Berdych against Fognini last week. Don't know how much his form changed since, but he was pretty erratic and Berdych isn't in really good form and Verdasco still needed three sets to beat him. Gonzalez volleys better and has better defense than Berdych. Didn't see yesterday's match though, so can't say how they played.

Originally posted by Cassidy

I see value on González at +265

You mean +165, right?

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Verdasco -190
Fernando vs. Fernando (Gonzalez) here. Spanish 'Nando smashed Chilean 'Nando on hard courts earlier this year on the surface that would have favored the Chilean more. Gonzo is a fairly solid clay courter, but just above .500 (15-12) in Spain. Spanish 'Nando is 42-26 on home turf. Chilean 'Nando has lost 5 of his last 7 vs. lefties. Spanish 'Nando could benefit from the added confidence of playing back-2-back clay court tournaments, having beaten a resurgent Ferrer in Monte Carlo before bowing to a hot Djokovic in the quarters in 3. The serve is the key here for both and I think you'll know which way this one will lean in the 1st set as I expect one of the two 'Nandos will seize control. Verdasco has lost three straight quarterfinals matches in recent weeks. In Barthelona, look for him to change that. I wouldn't hop on this once that price gets over -200. It's just a magical barrier for me.

Several things I don't agree with:
- Looking at the numbers of both on clay and hard, I'd say Gonzalez likes clay more (68-24 on clay vs. 75-43 on hard in the last five years)
- It was only an exhibition match at the beginning of the year where Verdasco played better than he does right now and gonzalez worse
- The conditions were difficult, pretty windy, obviously Verdasco liked it more.
- The blow out win for Ferrer against Lopez isn't really an indication of how well he played. Ferrer just had to put back the ball on Lopez' backhand and he would make the error sooner or later. In fact Ferrer is having troubles against big hitters, e.g. he struggled against Kukushkin, making many forced errors and simply getting overpowered in the second set.

**Cassidy** · 04-24-09, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by meganie

You mean +165, right?

Yes, was wrong converting decimal to american odd.

**meganie** · 04-24-09, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by Cassidy

Yes, was wrong converting decimal to american odd.

Yeah, thought so, Gonzo at +265 would be a steal.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-24-09, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by meganie

- The blow out win for Ferrer against Lopez isn't really an indication of how well he played. Ferrer just had to put back the ball on Lopez' backhand and he would make the error sooner or later. In fact Ferrer is having troubles against big hitters, e.g. he struggled against Kukushkin, making many forced errors and simply getting overpowered in the second set.

I guess what I mean is that Ferrer in general has re-established himself at least here in 2009. Great run in Dubai & he's at least making it challenging to beat him again whereas he pretty much rolled over in the last half of 2009. He's handling Robredo today with relative ease & Robredo has been real good on dirt this year. That's why I think Verdasco's straight sets win over him last week should help his confidence albeit that Gonzo presents a different challenge altogether.

Should be a fun match. I just think if Verdasco doesn't get the yips on serve that in front of the home crowd, he'll get that extra boost he might need to push through.

**meganie** · 04-24-09, 09:32 AM

Hmmm...thought Ferrer is playing ok. I mean Robredo is exactly the type of players he likes to play and both with errors. Pretty boring match imo.

I like Verdasco, really, he's a great player to watch, just think Gonzalez has pretty much the same game and same weapons. Don't see that many advantages speaking for Verdasco. Comparing to Gonzo's AO-match against Gasquet, if he plays like the first 2 1/2 sets, Verdasco wins this easily, if he plays like he did in the second half, it's gonna be a fight.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-24-09, 09:41 AM

True. Guess my main pluses for Verdasco are home court advantage and the lefty thing since Gonzo hasn't faired well lately against them. Figured Ferrer would win since I passed on backing him. I have a tough time backing him still when he's a bigger favorite even though I liked him a lot today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-24-09, 09:43 AM

Looks like Gonzo got some heavy action. Verdasco down to -155 at my book. Figures the one time I book one real early, I get boned on the price.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-24-09, 10:26 AM

Verdasco & the yips found each other early. Getting crushed. Wow. Guess I had it called, we do know early. Gonzo is gonna kill him.

**meganie** · 04-24-09, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Verdasco & the yips found each other early. Getting crushed. Wow. Guess I had it called, we do know early. Gonzo is gonna kill him.

Don't write him off yet. (Unfortunately for me) he's a slow starter, guess he'll play better in the second set.

Btw Gonzo's slices are really awful today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-24-09, 10:42 AM

Yeah he actually almost had it back on serve, but couldn't get it done when it was 4-2. At least he's getting points on serve now. Those first two service games were awful.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-24-09, 12:23 PM

Nando won in 3. The wrong one for me.

**meganie** · 04-24-09, 01:53 PM

Gonzo is the best bet for tomorrow imo. -118 seems like a gift to me, considering Ferrer got crushed by the same type of player last week and had three setters against Kukushkin and Starace. After watching today's matches, I can't see many chances for Ferrer, if Gonzo plays like today. Anyone agree/disagree?

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-24-09, 02:15 PM

No lean for me. Ferrer loves this tournament, Semis & Final in the last two tries. About the only time I would trust Ferrer is in this price range. Gonzo has the better offensive weapon and serve, but if Ferrer serves like did against Robredo - he has a shot. Really just a coin flip on this surface for me. Only thing I wouldn't like about Gonzalez is that he let Verdasco stick around today in a match he should have taken care of in straight sets.

**SBR Lou** · 04-24-09, 02:19 PM

Verdasco at over -150 is scary, he's better as a dog.

**redbull** · 04-25-09, 01:42 AM

verdasco looooseeeerr

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-25-09, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by meganie

Gonzo is the best bet for tomorrow imo. -118 seems like a gift to me

Ferrer is running away with it in the 3rd. Pretty much outplayed him everywhere, including a more efficient serve.

**meganie** · 04-25-09, 11:13 AM

Well, pretty unfortunate tie-break loss, set up match point with double fault and gifted it with a unforced error. Gonzo was too streaky, game where he broke Ferrer in the third set was insane, other than that Ferrer was the more consistent player. Disappointing...

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

No lean for me. Ferrer loves this tournament, Semis & Final in the last two tries. About the only time I would trust Ferrer is in this price range. Gonzo has the better offensive weapon and serve, but if Ferrer serves like did against Robredo - he has a shot. Really just a coin flip on this surface for me. Only thing I wouldn't like about Gonzalez is that he let Verdasco stick around today in a match he should have taken care of in straight sets.

You nailed it.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 04-25-09, 01:06 PM

Yeah, you have to say Gonzo did something similar in the Verdasco match - that should have been straights.