Azarenka is +450 to win AO right now

**w@lt** · 01-09-16, 01:07 PM

Also, interested to see what the odds are for the field vs. Serena. Serena's knee does not sound well. Left knee is apparently "bone on bone"

Australian Open 2016: Mamma Mia! Can Serena Williams go again?

http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/australian-open-2016-mamma-mia-can-serena-williams-go-again-20160107-gm0z61.html

Coach: Serena has same knee issues as Nadal

http://espn.go.com/tennis/story/_/id/14046269/serena-williams-coach-says-same-knee-issues-rafael-nadal

Serena Williams is dealing with similar knee injuries that have affected the career of Rafael Nadal, according to her coach Patrick Mouratoglou.

**frugalgambler** · 01-09-16, 02:59 PM

Serena at +515 right now. Wow.

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 01-09-16, 03:13 PM

I see +300 on 5D. Curious where you see +515

**w@lt** · 01-09-16, 03:31 PM

Not that surprised with the Serena odds. I think that knee is a real concern

**frugalgambler** · 01-09-16, 03:35 PM

BM has Serena at +515. Seems like the odds suggest she will not be playing. I agree that Aza @+500 looks tempting, this is her favorite Slam and she seems to be back at full strength.

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 01-09-16, 04:02 PM

I grabbed Aza +630 yesterday from my slow-to-react local. Line is still up.

**Conqueror** · 01-09-16, 07:28 PM

Bencic has no chance here. Her game hasn't developed enough for a grandslam win.
Yes, Serena might not even get to QFs even if she participates.
Azarenka is good value.
A rejuvenated Jankovic @ +9850 is also good value, IMHO.

**Jeff_Black** · 01-10-16, 02:12 AM

I don't mind the odds on Azarenka. Curious to know whether there is a serena vs the field market as well.
I'm very tempted to take the field but I doubt it's worth it atm
Hopefully a 6-0, 6-1 victory or two will set the bookies straight

**maletaja** · 01-10-16, 04:05 PM

Lol no Value betting "field" or against Serena. Market has already moved!
Azarenka is good-yes, but month ago futures were +2000! +500 dont see any value

Dont underestimate market. They are quite smart moving line

**kenz** · 01-10-16, 05:10 PM

On Mug @14

Should be around @8 now

**SirtySree** · 01-10-16, 05:21 PM

mug might nt even play. been struggling with injuries for several months nw

**frugalgambler** · 01-11-16, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by Conqueror

Bencic has no chance here. Her game hasn't developed enough for a grandslam win.
Yes, Serena might not even get to QFs even if she participates.
Azarenka is good value.
A rejuvenated Jankovic @ +9850 is also good value, IMHO.

This is a grand slam where freaking Cibulkova made to the finals a few years ago. So to say that Bencic has no game to at least make the semis is not even funny. This year, it looks to be wide open again. I like Aza at this odds, but again, as the odds suggest she is far from a sure bet. You also got Sharapova, Kvitova, Halep who have the game to win, assuming Serena will not play. And then a fringe player like Cibulkova can very well go deep. I am just putting more or less pocket change, here and there, with the intention to hedge, if it works out.

**w@lt** · 01-11-16, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

This is a grand slam where freaking Cibulkova made to the finals a few years ago. So to say that Bencic has no game to at least make the semis is not even funny. This year, it looks to be wide open again. I like Aza at this odds, but again, as the odds suggest she is far from a sure bet. You also got Sharapova, Kvitova, Halep who have the game to win, assuming Serena will not play. And then a fringe player like Cibulkova can very well go deep. I am just putting more or less pocket change, here and there, with the intention to hedge, if it works out.

Yeah, Bencic definitely has, at least, a chance

**bruceBRUCEbruce** · 01-11-16, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by maletaja

Lol no Value betting "field" or against Serena. Market has already moved!
Azarenka is good-yes, but month ago futures were +2000! +500 dont see any value

a month ago Vika was not +2000, not even close
I got her in mid-december @ +720:

Originally posted by bruceBRUCEbruce

womens:
I like Vika @ +720, 2 wins here, she likes it hard[court]

**frugalgambler** · 01-11-16, 01:08 PM

A lot will depend on the draw. And weather can also be a big factor. Should be an interesting Slam in any case, lots of questions about the form of top players with several ambitious youngsters.

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 01-13-16, 01:40 PM

Local still has Vika +630. Tempted to buy more but will likely wait for the draw and hope I still have the option if it looks favorable.

**w@lt** · 01-13-16, 07:03 PM

Does anyone think that Vika looks a little more fit? Seems a little slimmer to me...

**reedy** · 01-13-16, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by w@lt

Does anyone think that Vika looks a little more fit? Seems a little slimmer to me...

Lot of girls dropped some lbs this year. Both Pekovic and Stosur have both slimmed down. Not that it has helped them so far.

Was always jelly of Sams arms.

**prior22usaf** · 01-13-16, 09:51 PM

** Walt! You starting a pick thread for the aussie open like the us open brotha? Will keep an eye out for it...

**w@lt** · 01-13-16, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by prior22usaf

** Walt! You starting a pick thread for the aussie open like the us open brotha? Will keep an eye out for it...

Sure, why not??

**prior22usaf** · 01-13-16, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by w@lt

Sure, why not??

Sounds good man! Cheers!!!!

**frugalgambler** · 01-14-16, 01:21 AM

Halep seems to be in a decent form. Let's hope for a favorable draw. I would hate to see Aza playing somebody like Halep as early as the fourth round.

**MiddleMan** · 01-14-16, 02:39 AM

Originally posted by maletaja

Lol no Value betting "field" or against Serena. Market has already moved!
Azarenka is good-yes, but month ago futures were +2000! +500 dont see any value

Dont underestimate market. They are quite smart moving line

Believe it or not, my boy, I tried placing $200 on her at $26 (+2700) two months ago. The first $4 was accepted instantly, with the remaining $196 going through to a trader for processing. The $196 was rejected and they brought her odds into $10 within an instant. What a spew!

**frugalgambler** · 01-15-16, 02:40 AM

The draw is out. Aza is in the same quarter as Muguruza and Kerber. Meh. Serena is in the same quarter as Sharapova, not clear if they will play though; Bencic and Woz are also there. Agga seems to have a decent draw, in the same quarter as Kvitova. Halep has just lost to Kuzz, but she has a decent draw, with only Venus and Makarova in her quarter. All in all, nothing really sticks out.

**w@lt** · 01-15-16, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

The draw is out. Aza is in the same quarter as Muguruza and Kerber. Meh. Serena is in the same quarter as Sharapova, not clear if they will play though; Bencic and Woz are also there. Agga seems to have a decent draw, in the same quarter as Kvitova. Halep has just lost to Kuzz, but she has a decent draw, with only Venus and Makarova in her quarter. All in all, nothing really sticks out.

Yeah, not the easiest draw for Vika. Although, I don't think that Mug has been healthy, and Vika is 6-1 against Kerber, and hasn't lost to her since 2012.

I have my doubts about Serena. I've said it before, I think that her knee is going to be trouble. Bencic could definitely win that quarter, especially if Pova were to go down.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Agga do some damage, as it seems that she's been in great form since the WTA Finals.

**w@lt** · 01-15-16, 07:22 PM

Serena not looking healthy.... If she plays, will fade her every match.

https://twitter.com/WTAAddict/status/688151879746863104

**w@lt** · 01-15-16, 07:27 PM

Field is -365 vs. Serena to win. That pretty much says it all. She's either not going to play, retire, or bomb out bad early