Tennis Picks

**fitguy67** · 08-05-15, 08:24 PM

dumb twat...broads always do that...fight tooth and nail to break...then waste it by FTHTOFS (failing to hold their own frackin' serve)...

how can you bet on something that bleeds once a month and doesn't die?

**laker5** · 08-05-15, 08:27 PM

Good one fit

**felix_felicus7** · 08-05-15, 09:31 PM

Hopefully Dr Ivo will cancel hercog out for witit. Not a huge fan of puttin 10% of my stack out there, as it tends to raise the attention of the gods. GL

**fitguy67** · 08-05-15, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by felix_felicus7

Hopefully Dr Ivo will cancel hercog out for witit. Not a huge fan of puttin 10% of my stack out there, as it tends to raise the attention of the gods. GL

lol...if it's in a GS(or 1000-level) event, it's far easier on the nerves cuz you at least KNOW that motivation is a given...similar if serious points-to-defend are involved

but at calendar-filling events, especially the ones nearest the biggies, there's just so many other things going thru these players' cabezas than getting a W at all costs...

**GetWitit15** · 08-06-15, 07:11 AM

Lopez @ -155 (7.5 units)
Parlay: Gasquet & Cilic @ +114 (10 units)
Parlay: Thiem & Bencic @ -120 (10 units)

**GetWitit15** · 08-06-15, 07:17 AM

LOSS Hercog
LOSS Karlovic
WIN Gasquet
WIN Lopez
LOSS Troicki
WIN Cilic
WIN Cilic & Hercog
WIN Pospisil
LOSS Vandewehge
LOSS Bellucci
LOSS Souza
LOSS Vesely
LOSS Sela
PUSH Diyas
WIN Stosur

20-16, -17.3 units

We should average out at about +10 units per month over a 3 month basis. I'm confident that we will get there and in the interim, will continue to tweak my model.

**GetWitit15** · 08-06-15, 07:27 AM

Mayer +4.5 @ -123 (7.5 units)

**Conqueror** · 08-06-15, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by GetWitit15

We should average out at about +10 units per month over a 3 month basis. I'm confident that we will get there and in the interim, will continue to tweak my model.

You don't need a model for non-grand slam tournaments. You only need to find out which players have more motivation.

**lucasdawg** · 08-06-15, 08:18 AM

why so confident on lopez? he looked like he struggled in the heat today. he has more game then groth - yes.
i was looking at how bookies may be baiting groth as to how lopez was today. just wondering on your perspective

**GetWitit15** · 08-06-15, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by Conqueror

You don't need a model for non-grand slam tournaments. You only need to find out which players have more motivation.

Partially. We have different opinions on this of course and I do believe motivation is one factor, certainly not the sole one.

**GetWitit15** · 08-06-15, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by lucasdawg

why so confident on lopez? he looked like he struggled in the heat today. he has more game then groth - yes.
i was looking at how bookies may be baiting groth as to how lopez was today. just wondering on your perspective

Undervalued at that price vs. Groth.

**brodie** · 08-06-15, 10:21 AM

not hating or anything but you started out with small plays and you were really successful (3.5 being your big play) it only started going down hill when you started dropping 7- 10 a match. there's being confident and then there's just chasing. now you're throwing out parlays it just doesnt seem like the same way you were winning from the 1st page.

now you have 35 units on 4 plays? you started this thread with 3 plays for 3 units. if 3.5 was still your ceiling i think you could be up money right now. everyone has losing streaks but it's patience that get you through them

**GetWitit15** · 08-06-15, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by brodie

not hating or anything but you started out with small plays and you were really successful (3.5 being your big play) it only started going down hill when you started dropping 7- 10 a match. there's being confident and then there's just chasing. now you're throwing out parlays it just doesnt seem like the same way you were winning from the 1st page.

now you have 35 units on 4 plays? you started this thread with 3 plays for 3 units. if 3.5 was still your ceiling i think you could be up money right now. everyone has losing streaks but it's patience that get you through them

Point well taken. It is important to note that Tennis is as of now, an experiment for me and not one of my three focus sports. Therefore, I'll continue my experiment until I've reached a ~40% degradation of my bankroll.

**brodie** · 08-06-15, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by GetWitit15

Point well taken. It is important to note that Tennis is as of now, an experiment for me and not one of my three focus sports. Therefore, I'll continue my experiment until I've reached a ~40% degradation of my bankroll.

understandable. I like your thought process on a lot of the picks. Hopefully after tonight you're back around even and maybe we can see more of what we had on the first page in terms of unit size. I don't see a problem with big plays being thrown out if you're confident, but when it's every play it kind of keeps you in "do or die" mode. Hope to see you still around for the 1000 tourneys and the Open, that's where the real money is made. Good luck today

**GetWitit15** · 08-06-15, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by brodie

understandable. I like your thought process on a lot of the picks. Hopefully after tonight you're back around even and maybe we can see more of what we had on the first page in terms of unit size. I don't see a problem with big plays being thrown out if you're confident, but when it's every play it kind of keeps you in "do or die" mode. Hope to see you still around for the 1000 tourneys and the Open, that's where the real money is made. Good luck today

I'll be attending the Rogers Cup and certainly plan on sticking around. I'm going to normalize betting units and want to emphasize that this remains an experiment. I certainly plan on moving back to even and then approaching in a more stable way. I appreciate the well wishes.

**fitguy67** · 08-06-15, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by brodie

not hating or anything but you started out with small plays and you were really successful (3.5 being your big play) it only started going down hill when you started dropping 7- 10 a match. there's being confident and then there's just chasing. now you're throwing out parlays it just doesnt seem like the same way you were winning from the 1st page.

now you have 35 units on 4 plays? you started this thread with 3 plays for 3 units. if 3.5 was still your ceiling i think you could be up money right now. everyone has losing streaks but it's patience that get you through them

Originally posted by brodie

understandable. I like your thought process on a lot of the picks. Hopefully after tonight you're back around even and maybe we can see more of what we had on the first page in terms of unit size. I don't see a problem with big plays being thrown out if you're confident, but when it's every play it kind of keeps you in "do or die" mode. Hope to see you still around for the 1000 tourneys and the Open, that's where the real money is made. Good luck today

solid stuff in here brodski

**GetWitit15** · 08-06-15, 08:25 PM

Parlay: Isner and Wozniacki -1.5 sets @ +146 (10 units)

**w@lt** · 08-06-15, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by GetWitit15

Parlay: Isner and Wozniacki -1.5 sets @ +146 (10 units)

Woz fukking injured. Just blew a big parlay. WHY ARE YOU FUKKING PLAYING IF YOU'RE INJURED!?!

**felix_felicus7** · 08-06-15, 10:28 PM

'I certainly plan on moving back to even and then approaching in a more stable way. I appreciate the well wishes.'

GL going forward OP, but I guarantee you should be 'approaching in a more stable way' when behind & only taking 'shots' when ahead! There are never any shortcuts in this game. When you risk a 1-2 units you are just trusting your own instinct/anaylsis, but when you risk 7.5-10 units you are putting complete trust in the player/s not to supply the screwgy, which they invariably do. Your model should aim for minimizing variance.

**fitguy67** · 08-07-15, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by felix_felicus7

'I certainly plan on moving back to even and then approaching in a more stable way. I appreciate the well wishes.'

GL going forward OP, but I guarantee you should be 'approaching in a more stable way' when behind & only taking 'shots' when ahead! There are never any shortcuts in this game. When you risk a 1-2 units you are just trusting your own instinct/anaylsis, but when you risk 7.5-10 units you are putting complete trust in the player/s not to supply the screwgy, which they invariably do. Your model should aim for minimizing variance.

damn this page has more solid generally-applicable principles laid out in technicolor than any other i've seen around here...good stuff guyz..

we're all on your side GW, and we counsel patience and bet-size moderation...the US open'll be the time to get aggressive cuz both sides of the court in every match will be on even "full throttle" effort-wise...something you just can't count on in these calendar-fillers...

look at Keys-520 yesterday, for example...you think she'd get breadsticked by Tomljanovic in the 3rd-set of a Slam, with so little resistance exhibited? (and the odds would not be appreciably different in a slam, either)...slam betting's so much more valuable cuz you get full insurance against "hidden agenda"-driven "not giving a fukk"...which lowers the variance considerably cuz it just throws out registering a L because it wasn't really even A top priority, like with Keys yesterday, Fognini today...etc. etc.

of all the individual sports, tennis is the worst game for having such a wide variety of "effort settings" actually used commonly...in combat sports you characteristically don't get ANY chances to redeem a missed opportunity vs. an opponent, so every fight is career-defining "tooth and nail" (or Grand-Slam) in nature...